SINGAPORE SCENESETTER FOR EAP A/S HILL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SINGAPORE 001567 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS FOR A/S HILL FROM AMBASSADOR HERBOLD E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON ETRD PTER PHUM SN SUBJECT: SINGAPORE SCENESETTER FOR EAP A/S HILL REF: SINGAPORE 1486 ¶1. (SBU) We warmly welcome your May 20-22 visit to Singapore. Singapore's leadership will be interested in your views on developments in Asia and the U.S. role in the region and can be counted on to provide thoughtful views on questions such as terrorism in Southeast Asia and the rise of China. Your visit offers the opportunity to: -- send a public message throughout the region of the United States' commitment here; -- advance our counter-proliferation and law enforcement objectives; and -- raise concerns about Singapore's democratic process. Strategic Partners, not Allies -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Our excellent relationship with Singapore is founded on a convergence of views on key strategic issues and substantial trade and investment ties. Singapore views a strong U.S. diplomatic, military, and economic presence in the region as essential to regional peace and prosperity. Singapore is a valuable logistics hub for U.S. forces and seeks greater interoperability with us, highlighted by its selection late last year of the F-15SG for its Next Generation Fighter. Singapore consistently has supported Coalition forces in Iraq and the GOS has indicated it will provide trainers for the Global Peace Operations Initiative (GPOI). To preserve its autonomy and credibility with its neighbors, however, Singapore limits its closeness to us. It specifically does not want to be a treaty ally; our military leases facilities from the GOS -- there are no U.S. "bases" on the island. Terrorism, Non-proliferation and Law Enforcement -------------- --- ¶3. (SBU) Singapore is a reliable and highly capable partner in the Global War on Terrorism. In 2001, the GOS uncovered a plot by Jemaah Islamiya to bomb targets in Singapore, including this mission. The GOS continues to view Singapore as a high-profile terrorist target and the GOS regularly warns its citizens that a terrorist attack is inevitable. Singapore's leaders are concerned about the growth of radical Islam in Southeast Asia and the long-term threat to secular authority. ¶4. (SBU) Singapore is an active member in counterproliferation programs such as the Proliferation Security Initiative and the Container Security Initiative and is working with Malaysia and Indonesia to enhance maritime security in the Strait of Malacca. We have been working with Singapore -- a major transshipment hub -- to bring its export controls up to world class standards. As an IAEA board member, Singapore has supported our efforts to press Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions. ¶5. (SBU) Law enforcement cooperation is good, but could be much better. We want to conclude a Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty (MLAT) to raise our cooperation to a level commensurate with our close ties and Singapore's status as a highly-developed economy and important financial center. Singapore is willing to share information quietly through intelligence channels, but is much less forthcoming through law enforcement channels. Regional Issues -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Singapore views the Taiwan Strait and the Korean Peninsula as the most serious potential flash points in East Asia. GOS leaders still worry that perceived Taiwan moves toward independence could spark a conflict with China. While less directly affected by the Korean Peninsula, Singaporean leaders will welcome your insights on the Six Party Talks and other ways we are trying to modify North Korean behavior. This offers an opportunity to highlight the importance of our non-proliferation objectives and our efforts to check the North Korean government's criminal behavior. ¶7. (SBU) Singapore encourages outside powers to take an interest in Southeast Asia. It seeks to improve its SINGAPORE 00001567 002.2 OF 002 bilateral and ASEAN's relations with rising powers India and China. Singapore is increasingly frustrated with Burma and its negative impact on ASEAN's relations with us and the EU, but the GOS will not take any strong action against the junta. The GOS frequently urges us to engage more with Indonesia and welcomes our renewed military relationship there. Domestic Politics -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The ruling People's Action Party (PAP) won another landslide victory in the May 6 parliamentary elections (Reftel). Most Singaporeans value the peace and prosperity the PAP has delivered since the 1950's and it would have won handily even without employing its usual hardball tactics to cripple the opposition. With Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew clearly in the lead in this regard, however, the PAP threatened perennial opponent Dr. Chee Soon Juan and his Singapore Democratic Party with another defamation suit and harassed a Workers' Party candidate on trivial grounds, following up its blast of campaign-period criticism with a "criminal" investigation that ended with a warning to the defeated oppositionist. During and after the election, many Singaporeans, even among the elite, were visibly uncomfortable with the PAP's rough -- and unnecessary -- electoral tactics. Your visit offers the opportunity to reinforce our interest in Singapore's continued success, which will require lifting constraints on expression and allowing the full participation of citizens in the political process. HERBOLD