SINGAPORE PM CALLS EARLY ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SINGAPORE 001289 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2016 TAGS: PGOV SN SUBJECT: SINGAPORE PM CALLS EARLY ELECTIONS Classified By: EP Counselor Laurent Charbonnet, Reasons 1.4(b)(d) ¶1. (U) On April 20, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong moved to dissolve Parliament more than a year early and called for an election on May 6. Candidates must register for the election on April 27. As Singapore's formal election season gets underway, we have prepared (beginning in para 3) a primer on Singapore's electoral system. Comment -------------- ¶2. (C) PM Lee's People's Action Party (PAP) will win the election easily. The contest, however, will pose three key questions. First, how big will PM Lee's mandate be? The PAP will likely define success as winning 65-70 percent of the popular vote. Second, will the fractured opposition make any headway or will it lose its tenuous grip on its two of 84 seats? The opposition has a bit of new talent this time around, but the PAP looks eager to defeat the two low-key and long-in-the-tooth sitting MPs. Finally, how "fair" will the contest be? The Government will scrupulously observe all the formalities, but also controls the process. In 2001, the PAP steamrolled the opposition in 17 days from announcing the new electoral boundaries to the election. This year the process has been stretched to two months. Media coverage will be important and new restrictions on the use of podcasting and videocasting to spread political content will handicap the opposition, which had hoped to use the internet to get its message out and past the state-influenced mainstream media. End Comment. Singapore's Electoral System -------------- ¶3. (U) A Parliament can sit for up to five years, but the Prime Minister generally calls for elections before the end of its term. Campaigns are very brief -- the minimum is less than two weeks. As in other parliamentary systems, the majority party forms the cabinet and the executive branch. Drawing the Map -------------- ¶4. (U) Parliament consists of 84 MPs, elected from a mix of nine Single Member Constituencies (SMCs) and 14 Group Representation Constituencies (GRCs). The only two opposition MPs in the just-dissolved Parliament come from SMCs. The GOS explains the GRC system as ensuring minority (Malay or Indian) representation in Parliament. Each slate of candidates for a GRC must include a minority candidate. The GOS instituted the GRC system in the late 1980's -- the PAP had just lost two seats in the 1984 election after four consecutive General Election clean sweeps. GRCs have five or six members. A commission of civil servants in the Prime Minister's Office draws the electoral boundaries. The Government releases the boundary map to the public just weeks before a new election. In 2001, it was published the day before the election was announced; this year it was released almost seven weeks before the announcement. MPs do not need to live in the district they represent. Free, but Fair? -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Elections in Singapore are free, but their fairness is debatable. Elections are held on a regular basis. Voting, which is compulsory, is orderly and ballot tabulation proceeds smoothly. As in the UK, candidates must make a deposit, which they forfeit if they fail to win at least 12.5% of the vote. In the 2001 election, two opposition candidates lost their deposits of S$13,000 (USD 8,125) each. This year, the deposit will be S13,500 (USD 8,437). ¶6. (SBU) Fairness issues stem from the government's control of districting, restrictions on freedom of speech and assembly, and domination of the media. A variety of laws and regulations limit freedom of speech. For example, the Films Act bans any film that "comments on any political matter," but films sponsored by the GOS are exempt. Senior PAP leaders have used defamation suits to bankrupt their opponents, making them ineligible to run for office. Freedom of assembly is circumscribed and political rallies are limited to pre-approved locations. Local media coverage generally hews to the government's line. SINGAPORE 00001289 002 OF 002 The Ruling PAP -- Now and Forever -------------- ¶7. (SBU) As it has every time since 1959, the PAP will win this election. The PAP consistently delivers the goods (peace and prosperity),actively recruits and runs talented candidates, and has an effective grass roots organization. In contrast, the opposition is demoralized, lacks talent and a coherent program, and is riven by factional disputes. ¶8. (SBU) The opposition parties make no pretense about offering a viable alternative government. In fact, the opposition routinely fails to nominate candidates for more than half of the seats in Parliament. (With no opponent on the ballot, the PAP candidate wins automatically, resulting in a "walkover." Many Singaporeans have never voted as a result.) Thus, the PAP can win an absolute majority before election day. Some opposition members claim this is deliberate -- dubbed the "by-election strategy" -- to increase votes for the opposition (with the electorate assured of a PAP government, people will be more willing to cast a protest vote for the opposition). It is just as likely due to a shortage of willing candidates. ¶9. (U) There hasn't been a by-election since 1992. The last one before that was 1981, when J.B. Jeyaretnam from the Workers' Party stunned the PAP by winning a seat -- becoming the first opposition member of Parliament in 13 years. Election Results -------------- ¶10. (U) Seats in Parliament Year PAP (walkovers) Opposition 2001 82 (55) 2 1997 81 (47) 2 1991 77 (41) 4 1988 80 (11) 1 1984 77 (30) 2 1980 75 (37) 0 1976 69 (16) 0 1972 65 (8) 0 1968 58 (51) 0 1963 37 14 1959 43 8 ¶11. (U) Popular Vote (percentage) Year PAP Opposition 2001 75 25 1997 65 35 1991 61 39 1988 63 37 1984 65 35 1980 78 22 1976 72 28 1972 69 31 1968 87 13 1963 47 53 1959 54 46 HERBOLD