C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SHANGHAI 006493

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/CM
NSC FOR WILDER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/13/2016
TAGS: PREL CH JA TW KN
SUBJECT: EAP DAS CHRISTENSEN AND SHANGHAI SCHOLARS


CLASSIFIED BY: Simon Schuchat, Deputy Principle Officer, , US
Consulate Shanghai.
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d)




1. (C) SUMMARY: During a wide-ranging lunch discussion with EAP
DAS Christensen on September 14, several of Shanghai's prominent
international relations scholars stressed that it was important
for China and the United States to have a clear understanding of
each others positions. Two scholars acknowledged that China
could do more to pressure North Korea to return to the Six-Party
talks, but said it was unlikely that China would take on a
tougher position for fear that it would lead to the regime's
collapse and regional instability. One scholar characterized
the recent protests in Taiwan as chaotic and said that President
Chen Shui-bian would step down if asked by the United States.
The scholars also reported that current Prime Minister and at
the time Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe was
interested in visiting China in October and said that such a
visit would be a good thing. The scholars did not believe
Shanghai's pension scandal would affect Shanghai government
operations or the economy. (Note: This was before former
Shanghai Party Secretary Chen Liangyu was removed from office on
September 24. End Note.) They personally supported the goal of
democracy, but acknowledged that political reform in China would
be a long-term process. End Summary.




2. (SBU) Consul General hosted a lunch on September 14 for EAP
DAS Christensen Shanghai Association of American Studies
President Ding Xinghao, with several prominent Shanghai
scholars, including Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences (SASS)
Vice President Huang Renwei, Fudan University Center for
American Studies (CAS) President Shen Dingli, CAS Professor Ren
Xiao, and Shanghai Institute of International Studies (SIIS)
Director of Academic Exchanges Shao Yuqun. Deputy Consul
General, Public Affairs Officer, and Poloff also attended the
lunch.



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North Korea

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3. (C) The scholars probed DAS Christensen for the U.S.
bottomline on North Korea. CAS Director Shen (protect) said it
was important that the United States provide clear signals on
North Korea. He added that the missile tests should not be the
U.S. bottom-line and warned that the worst possible case
scenario would be for North Korea to obtain nuclear weapons. He
acknowledged that China could do more to pressure North Korea to
return to the Six-Party talks, but added that it was in China's
interest to maintain the current regime. According to Shen, as
long as the Kim Jong-Il regime remained in power, the United
States would be forced to rely on China to rein it in. He added
that China must similarly rely on the United States to rein in
Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian. He said, therefore, these two
problems were linked and China would not take a tough position
towards North Korea until it was confident that the United
States was committed to containing Taiwan independence.




4. (C) SASS Vice President Huang (protect) disagreed that
Taiwan and North Korea were linked. He agreed, however, that
China could be more proactive. He said China was not willing to
take a tougher stance towards North Korea because it feared the
consequences of regime collapse. He added that in discussing
North Korea, one must understand that there was nothing that can
be done to change the leadership or power structure of the
regime. He compared it to Yugoslavia and said that the collapse
of such authoritarian regimes always led to chaos. Fudan
University's Ren (protect) and Shen said that there were
indications that North Korea's economy was improving and that it
was interested in economic reform. Ren had recently traveled to
North Korea where he saw fields of corn. Shen had recently
hosted two North Korean diplomats who were very interested in

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learning about economic issues. DAS Christensen said he would
welcome these developments if they were true, but cautioned that
economic reforms, at best, were a long process and that one
should not rely on such minor indications as evidence of North
Korea's commitment to economic reform. Moreover, we can not
afford to wait to see if North Korea will really carry out
meaningful reforms over time while Pyongyang, in the meantime,
is developing a nuclear arsenal. He urged that China be more
proactive in encouraging North Korea to return to the Six-Party
talks and implement the September 19, 2005 joint agreement.



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Taiwan, Japan, SCO

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5. (C) Huang characterized recent protests in Taiwan as
chaotic. He asked whether the United States would interfere and
tell President Chen Shui-bian to step down. DAS Christensen
said that these protests were a part of the democratic process
and that it was not appropriate for the United States to
interfere. The United States does not pick and choose
individual leaders for election or removal from office within
democracies, but instead insists on a peaceful and legal
political process. Huang said President Chen would step down if
asked by the United States, but did not say whether he thought
this would be a good thing.




6. (C) DAS Christensen expressed hope that Japan and China
could improve bilateral relations. He added that disagreements
over historical issues had become too exaggerated and urged that
Asian countries resolve the issue among themselves. Ren noted
that there were reports that at the time Chief Cabinet Secretary
and currently Prime Minister Shinzo Abe would like to visit
China in October. Shen thought that this was a good sign and
said China should be proactive and invite Abe. According to
Huang, not only would this make China look good, but Abe would
not be able to refuse the invitation.




7. (C) SIIS Shao Yuqun (protect) raised the U.S. role in
Central Asia and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
She noted that there appeared to be a lot of discussions in the
United States on the SCO and suggested that there should be
Track II discussions on the issue to avoid any misunderstanding
between the United States and China. She also noted that much of
USG policy towards Central Asia depended on a stable
Afghanistan, but presently Afghanistan was not stable. DAS
Christensen agreed that more needed to be done to promote
stability in Afghanistan and encouraged China to play a bigger
role in this area, for example by fulfilling its existing
pledges to deliver foreign aid. He added while some Americans
worried about China's increased activity in the region, he
thought that this activity was positive as long as it led to
greater regional stability.



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Responsible Stakeholder?

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8. (C) Huang asked for more clarification of DAS Christensen's
view on the concept of "responsible stakeholder." DAS
Christensen repeated his comments made to students at a
roundtable at Fudan (septel). He said China had not yet become
the responsible stakeholder that Deputy Secretary Zoellick had
envisioned and urged that China fully use its powers to play a
more positive role in the international arena. Ding (protect)
noted that there continued to be strategic misunderstandings
between the United States and China and that international
issues affected China's domestic development. He urged that

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more be done to improve communication between the two countries.
DAS Christensen agreed and added that good U.S.-China relations
had a positive effect on China's internal situation. He added
that the United States would continue the senior dialogue that
had been chaired by former Deputy Secretary Zoellick. The next
round would be chaired by U/S Nick Burns.



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Domestic Issues

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9. (C) The Consul General asked about the impact of the recent
pension scandal in Shanghai. Huang said that while the scandal
was significant, he did not think it would influence the
Shanghai government's operations or the economy. He added that
the central government was investigating five or six additional
cases of corruption, each of which was huge. Ding said he heard
that one of the cases involved the wife of Executive Vice
Premier Huang Ju. (Note: Ding made his comments prior to the
removal of Shanghai Party Secretary Chen Liangyu. End Note.)
Shen noted that as China had become wealthier, public servants
were faced with more temptations and it was only human nature
that there would be such corruption problems.




10. (C) The scholars discussed China's development at length
and said that in general China was on the right path. Ren said
that most intellectuals believed that democracy was a worthy
goal for China. He did not indicate, however, whether the
government shared this belief. Ren was optimistic about China's
future, but noted that China faced several difficult problems
that it must carefully manage. Shen added that one of the
disadvantages of a communist government was that when the
government made a mistake, it had disastrous results. All of
the scholars agreed that China faced significant challenges and
that political reform would be a long-term process.




11. (U) DAS Christensen cleared this message.
JARRETT