ROH TO RESHUFFLE CABINET NEXT WEEK

UNCLAS SEOUL 000632 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR KS SUBJECT: ROH TO RESHUFFLE CABINET NEXT WEEK REF: SEOUL 14 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED -- PLS HANDLE ACCORDINGLY. CABINET RESHUFFLE PART II -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Roh Administration officials, including the Prime Minister, have signaled another partial Cabinet reshuffle to be announced next week. Three ministers -- Oh Geo-don (Maritime and Fisheries),Oh Young-kyo (Government Administration and Home Affairs),Lee Jae-yong (Environment) -- appear certain to resign in order to run as Uri candidates in the May 31 regional elections. Two others -- Chin Dae-je (Information and Communications) and Chung Dong-chae (Culture and Tourism) -- are also likely to step down. ¶2. (SBU) Blue House source say that President Roh will announce the reshuffle next week, just before he departs March 6 on a tour of African nations (Egypt, Algeria, Nigeria). This would complete the traditional new year's reshuffle that began in January with changes at the Ministries of Unification; Health and Welfare; Commerce, Industry and Energy; and Labor (REFTEL). MINISTERS TO RUN AS URI CANDIDATES -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The ministers to step down in next week's Cabinet reshuffle have all but announced their intention to run as Uri candidates in the following key regional races: - Oh Geo-don: Mayor of Busan (incumbent is Hur Nam-sik of the Grand National Party (GNP)) - Oh Young-kyo: Governor of S. Chungcheong Province (inc. Shim Dae-pyung of the People-Centered Party (PCP)) - Lee Jae-yong: Mayor of Daegu (inc. Cho Hae-nyoung of the GNP) - Chin Dae-je: Governor of Gyeonggi Province (inc. Sohn Hak-kyu of the GNP) - Chung Dong-chae: Mayor of Gwangju (inc. Park Kwang-tae of the Democratic Party (DP)) ¶4. (SBU) COMMENT: Although the five Cabinet members likely to resign have built up considerable name recognition during their tenures, they will be mounting campaigns against heavy odds. All are intending to run in regions traditionally dominated by other parties and generally anathema to the Uri Party, and they will be doing so as support rates for President Roh and the ruling party have reached a nadir (low 20s). That said, economic indicators are inching upward and new Uri Chairman Chung Dong-young appears to have hit a chord with his attacks on the corruption of old-school local pols, most of whom are affiliated with the GNP (in eastern Youngnam) and the DP (in western Honam). END COMMENT. VERSHBOW