ROK'S IRAQ ZAYTUN TROOP DEPLOYMENT: 2007 EXTENSION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 004156 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2014 TAGS: PGOV PREL KS SUBJECT: ROK'S IRAQ ZAYTUN TROOP DEPLOYMENT: 2007 EXTENSION WITHIN REACH Classified By: POL M/C Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The ROK government is likely to forward a motion to the National Assembly proposing to extend the ROK's Iraq Zaytun troop deployment until the end of 2007. One complicating factor is the demand of the ruling Uri Party to include a pullout plan together with the troop extension motion. However, given the solid support of the opposition GNP--and low popularity of the Uri Party--we believe the proposal without pullout language has a good chance to succeed. End Summary. Proposal, then Extension -------------- ¶2. (C) In order to continue the ROK troop deployment in Iraq, the government must propose a renewal bill to the National Assembly Defense Committee through the Ministry of National Defense. The committee reviews the bill, makes revisions as necessary, and then submits it to the Assembly plenary session for a vote. The motion was scheduled to go to the committee on December 1, but due to internal ROKG-Uri Party debate, the bill has yet to go to the Assembly. Now, our National Assembly contacts tell us, the proposal is likely to be delivered to the Defense Committee on December ¶6. Uri Against the Mission -------------- ¶3. (C) After submitting an open petition signed by 90 Assembly members on November 21 calling for a plan to pull troops out of Iraq, the Uri Party, in a full party meeting on November 30, called for the government to include a pullout plan in the motion for renewal of the 2007 Zaytun troop deployment. The Uri request was for, "a pullout plan by June 2007, and conclusion of the Zaytun mission by the end of 2007." Although this is the official position of the 135-strong (of 298) Uri assembly members, according to Uri sources, up to 20 percent of the Uri members are against such strong language on a pullout plan, and are prepared to vote accordingly. GNP Position -------------- ¶4. (C) Most members of the opposition Grand National Party (GNP) support the extension of the troop dispatch. They have argued that such an extension is needed to improve Korea's international image and also to enhance the ROK-U.S. alliance. Virtually all of GNP Defense Committee members we have contacted believe that no pullout plan should be attached to the renewal motion. Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) While many in Korea are against the war in Iraq and question the involvement of ROK troops, the relative safety of Irbil, where all of Zaytun is located, has helped. Developments in the Middle East aside, most Koreans, of course, grant that the true reason for the troop deployment is to support for the security goals of the United States. This is why the truly vocal opposition is limited to the progressive wing of the Korean political spectrum and the ruling Uri Party. This wing will continue to press the National Assembly for formal language on a pullout plan, likely causing delays. Still, given the low popularity of the Uri Party--8.8 percent in recent polls--we doubt that such a position is ultimately sustainable. We believe that there is a good chance that Uri and GNP leadership can move the motion through the committee and submit it for a plenary vote as early as next week, without the pullout plan language. VERSHBOW