THE FUTURE OF THE URI PARTY: BREAKUP?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 003791 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2016 TAGS: PGOV KS SUBJECT: THE FUTURE OF THE URI PARTY: BREAKUP? Classified By: POL Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Within the Uri Party, there are three distinct schools of thought on what the party's future should be; first that the Uri Party should continue on as is and work to strengthen the party; second, the party should dissolve and re-form as a regional party similar to Kim Dae-jung's Millennium Democratic Party with a base in the southwest and around the capital; and finally, some want to induce some Uri and Grand National Party (GNP) members to leave their party and in coalition with Democratic Party (DP) members and in alliance with several strong NGOs, make a new party based on entirely new principles. Due to the single digit approval rating of the ruling Uri Party, the continued losses in local and by-elections, and with the 2007 presidential election approaching, many expect the party to make a move in the coming weeks. END SUMMARY. STRENGTHEN THE URI PARTY -------------- ¶2. (C) The faction focused on strengthening the Uri Party is led by Chung Dong-yong and Kim Geun-tae. While neither has much popular support (NOTE: Recent polls suggest they have between 1 and 2 percent support. END NOTE),they both enjoy strong support within the party. Therefore, according to their calculations, as long as they stay patient and keep the party intact, the Democratic Party (DP) supporters and Goh Kun supporters would naturally join the Uri Party by summer 2007, as they would see this as the inevitable choice if they were to have a chance against the Grand National Party (GNP). This scenario's main fault is that it does not offer a method to distance the party from the hugely unpopular President Roh. Most pundits agree that while it might be a relatively safe option, it is not the most likely one, because it would mean certain defeat for most Uri legislators in the 2008 National Assembly election. DISSOLVE URI - GO BACK TO REGIONALISM -------------- ¶3. (C) The second and currently, according to pundits, most likely strategy would be for the Uri Party to dissolve and start over as a new party in coalition with the DP. This new party would be founded with a regional base and the theory would be that, just as in 1997, a combination of the southwest voters coupled with progressives from Seoul and Gyeonggi Province could defeat any GNP candidate in the 2007 presidential election. The drawback to this plan for Uri members is that they would have to accept large concessions from the small (12 Assembly members) Democratic Party and from Goh Kun supporters and possibly even enter the new coalition as a junior partner despite their 141 seats in the Assembly. Many speculate this alliance could have a shot at fielding a competitive candidate for the Blue House, either Goh Kun or someone else, but also state this would be a regression to regionalism and ultimately not the best option for Korean political development. Those who favor this option are DP members and Goh Kun supporters because they feel they are on the rise now and would stand to gain in a partnership with the reeling Uri Party. Many Uri legislators from the Jeolla region are attracted to this strategy because it would mean their own easy re-election. THE THIRD WAY - A NEW START -------------- ¶4. (C) The "third way" would be to start a new party that would be entirely different than the Uri Party or the DP. This new party would hope to attract some Uri Representatives, a few GNP members along with some from the DP. This support, coupled with support from NGOs, would lead to wide spread ground roots support. In addition, this new party would have founding principles different enough from the Uri Party, the DP or the GNP that they could hope to attract a variety of possible candidates, including reform minded conservatives such as Sohn Hak-kyu. Representative Choi Jae-cheon, an up and coming first term Assemblyman, explained to poloff on October 31 the three ways the Uri party could break up but would not say where his allegiance lay. However the allusion was that he favored the third way and he hinted that leading Uri lawmaker Chun Jung-bae was a possible leader of the potential new party. ¶5. (C) On November 2, former Prime Minister Goh Kun announced he would form a new, reform-minded political party in December and hoped to attract supporters from across the political spectrum. While his announcement seemed to favor the "third way", many believe he does not have the support at this time to successfully form a new party and his announcement would ultimately lead to Goh's joining either the Uri Party or the Democratic Party. According to reform-minded GNP lawmaker Won Hee-ryoung, Goh does not have the support to succeed in either the GNP or the Uri Party, but was forced to announce a move before his popularity evaporated. While Goh's advisors told poloff that Goh had met with President Roh recently and believed he could successfully garner wide support from a range of politicians, it remains too early to tell if Goh will successfully break new political ground or not. His announcement means that Goh, after months of skirting the issue, has finally thrown his hat into the political ring. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) However the non-GNP party or parties shape up, the likely result will be a face off between progressives and conservatives and split along the Jeolla and Gyeongsang province lines. While Roh and the Uri Party's goal was to move beyond regionalism, recent trends point to a redux of the 1997 election in several ways; first, regionalism playing a greater role than in 2002 and second, there is a chance that there will be more than two main candidates for president. While much focus by pundits has been on whether one of the "big three" GNP candidates would break away and form a new party, experts now say there is a chance the non-GNP parties may have a hard time agreeing on a single candidate. For both the GNP and non-GNP, most agree the key will be to get fully behind a single candidate, no matter what strategy or what coalition the candidate represents. VERSHBOW