DPRK CANCELS ARIRANG FESTIVAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 002586 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2015 TAGS: PREL KS KN SUBJECT: DPRK CANCELS ARIRANG FESTIVAL REF: A. SEOUL 2460 ¶B. SEOUL 2533 ¶C. SECTO 00002 Classified By: CDA Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b),(d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) One of Northeast Asia's largest synchronized gymnastics and flashcard extravaganzas has been postponed until next spring. While the DPRK's stated reason for the postponement of the "Arirang Festival" was flooding following unusually heavy monsoon rains, some suspect the true motivation was to control rumors about the failed Taepodong-2 launching and UNSCR 1695. Another factor was the cold response the Festival would have elicited in the wake of the missile launches. The cancellation will avoid the awkwardness of seeing thousands of South Koreans participating in a pro-North Korea festival at a time when the ROKG is trying to look firm in its response to the DPRK's missile launches. END SUMMARY. THE ARIRANG FESTIVAL -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The DPRK organized the first Arirang Festival in June 2002 to commemorate the 90th birthday of DPRK founder Kim Il-sung. The Festival featured 100,000 gymnasts and flashcard-flippers who danced and flipped in an hour-long program devoted to Kim's memory and legacy. The DPRK continued the festival from August to October in 2002 to commemorate the anniversaries of Korean Liberation and the founding of the Korea Worker's Party. Since 2002, the Festival has been held every August. ¶3. (SBU) In 2005, approximately 7,300 South Koreans attended the festival. The five-member ROK delegation to the 16th Inter-Korean Ministerial Talks, including then-Unification Minister Chung Dong-young attended, as did eight National Assembly members representing the Uri, GNP and Democratic Labor Parties. Hundreds of Americans also attended, including New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson and former CBS anchorman Dan Rather. Official delegations from China, Russia and Cuba were there as well. According to press reports, the DPRK may have earned over 6 million USD from travel and tourism associated with the event. WHAT MISSILES? -------------- ¶4. (C) The 2006 Arirang Festival was planned for August 14 to 16. In the weeks following the July 5 missile launches, we suggested to our ROKG contacts that it might not be appropriate to send an official delegation to the Festival following the DPRK's provocative actions. While ROKG representatives told us that they had not yet determined whether to send an official delegation, they also said that they could not prevent private citizens from attending. Meanwhile, the "South Korea Council for Implementation of the June 15 Joint Declaration," a civic group that was facilitating South Korean participation in the event, announced on July 16 that 16,200 civilians would visit North Korea to take part in the festival. Though the South Korea Council later reduced their estimate of visitors to 7,00 due to rising tensions on the Peninsula, another organizing group, the "Movement for One Corea(sic)," told us on August 1 that reservations did not seem to be affected by the missile launches. SHOW POSTPONED UNTIL SPRING -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Three major storms struck the Korean Peninsula in July and flooding was a problem in both South and North Korea (Ref B). International relief organizations said that the DPRK death toll exceeded 120 persons. According to a UN analysis, 31,000 houses were destroyed and 17,000 families were made homeless. Amidst such reports, the DPRK's UN Ambassador announced that because of flood damage, the DPRK would cancel the performance this year and reschedule for spring 2007. Prof. Jun Bong-geun, a North Korea specialist at the Institute for Foreign Affairs and National Security, was not surprised. As he explained to poloff on August 1, North Korea has lost control of natural disasters. As a result, "when it rains, it floods. When it doesn't rain, there's a drought." Park said that it would take years for the DPRK, which lacks sufficient heavy machinery and earth-moving equipment, to recover from this disaster. ¶6. (C) In a July 31 conversation with the Charge, however, Secretary to the President for National Security Strategy SIPDIS Park Sun-won suggested that the flooding may not have been the only reason. He noted that last year's festival took place during heavy downpours which seemed to have little impact on the performance. Park speculated that Kim Jong-il might be concerned about having so many North Koreans gathered in one place, where rumors regarding the Taepodong-2 missile launch or UNSCR 1695 could easily spread. Kim Jong-il did not want the whole country to know that the missile launch failed and that the entire international community is now against North Korea, Park reasoned. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) With the amount of revenue that the DPRK stood to gain from the Arirang Festival, postponing this event could not have been a decision Kim Jong-il made lightly. Whatever his true motivation, we think that many in the ROKG may be privately relieved at the outcome. At a time when some ROKG officials are troubled that the ROK is perceived as being "soft" on North Korea (Ref C),it would have been awkward to have thousands of South Koreans participate in an event dedicated to the glory and legacy of Kim Il-sung. YUN