2007 ROK POSSIBLE PRESIDENTAIL CANDIDATES PROFILED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 002492

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2016
TAGS: PGOV KS
SUBJECT: 2007 ROK POSSIBLE PRESIDENTAIL CANDIDATES PROFILED

REF: A. SEOUL 2432

B. SEOUL 2190

Classified By: A/DCM Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: As the presidential election season nears
(See Reftel A),there are many faces, most old, some new,
that are busy jockeying for position. Will the old guard
come out ahead and succeed in replacing President Roh next
year with a conservative leader such as Park Geun-hye? Or
does Kim Dae-jung have one more king-making miracle up his
sleeve? Can someone in the Uri Party emerge with national
appeal? This cable outlines the leading candidates for
president and tells where they stand right now. END SUMMARY.

GNP
---


2. (SBU) Park Geun-Hye: Park has been the face of the
Grand National Party (GNP) for the past two years and is the
current leading presidential hopeful. Under Park, the
party's approval rating last month reached its highest point
at 45 percent. According to the latest poll numbers published
on July 19 in the independent JoongAng Ilbo, Park claims 29
percent nationwide support. She is ahead of her closest
contender Goh Kun, by nearly 10 percentage points. The
turning point for her popularity was in May when a man
wielding a box cutter attacked her and slashed her right
cheek. The incident led to an outpouring of sympathy among
her supporters and a boost to her poll numbers. After
recovery, she immediately resumed her public activities,
showing the public her determination and dedication. The GNP
rode her coattails to a sweeping victory in the May 31 local
elections. Particularly helped by Park was Park Seoung-ho,
the current Daejeon City mayor. Somewhat surprisingly,
support for Park is quite strong among younger Koreans; 32.3
percent of people between the ages 19-29 responded that they
support her for president. While her popularity soared to
nearly 44 percent in the immediate aftermath of the attack,
it has declined and leveled out.


3. (SBU) Lee Myung-bak: Former Seoul Mayor Lee is
currently in third place after Park Geun-hye and Goh Kun with
18.2 percent support for his candidacy. Credited with
creating a newer and cleaner Seoul, including a makeover of
the Cheonggyecheon Stream that runs through the central part
of the city, Lee remains Park's top rival within the GNP.
Lee Jae-oh, the runner up at the GNP national convention, is
Lee Myung-bak's right-hand man. Lee Myung-bak is also known
for his strong pro-American stance. Last March, Lee faced
some controversy when he was accused of receiving monetary
funds from a tennis association to pay for his membership. A
former businessman, he is commonly referred to by his
nickname "Bulldozer," a moniker he received because of his
ability to get things done. Lee prides himself as a "can-do"
person on economic issues as well.


4. (SBU) Sohn Hak-kyu: Sohn, the former Governor of
Gyeonggi Province, is far behind with only 1.4 percent
support. During Sohn's four year term, Gyeonggi Province
attracted about $13.6 billion in foreign direct investment
and created some 560,000 jobs. Sohn is credited with
establishing The English Village, which opened in Ansan in
2004, a place where Koreans can experience American language
and culture. The motivation behind the English Village is
Sohn's belief that learning English is the key to creating a
more globally competitive society. Yet, he has received
considerably less media attention than Seoul Mayor Lee
Myoung-bak for his efforts. Although there was speculation
that he might join with other centrist politicians or form a
new party, Sohn has insisted that he intends to stay in the
GNP and to reform it. Sohn identifies himself as a
"reformative conservative." He is currently three weeks in
to a 100-day tour of Korea, where he hopes to learn what the
Korean people want in a leader (Reftel B).


5. (SBU) Won Hee-ryong: Won is a moderate conservative who
has been in an on and off political feud with Park Geun-hye
for years. In 2004, Won was runner-up behind Park in the
party convention to elect party chairman. Yet his bitter
criticism of Park for her intolerance of opposition left him
alienated within the party. In an interview, Won asserted:
"When someone does not fit into her intolerant ideology for
national identity, she considers him a communist." Last
year, Won, Oh Se-Hoon and other junior GNP lawmakers created
an intra-party reformist group called the Future Alliance.
Won has little chance of securing a GNP presidential
nomination, except perhaps name recognition for another run
in the future.


URI PARTY
--------------


6. (SBU) Chung Dong-young: Chung, the former chairman of the
Uri Party, Unification Minister and Chair of the National
Security Council, is still considered a strong presidential
candidate despite his exit from politics after the colossal
defeat suffered in the May 31 regional elections by the Uri
Party. He is currently at the Free University of Berlin as a
visiting researcher. He said he hopes to gain perspective as
he steps away from politics. He is expected to vie for the
Uri nomination with Kim Geun-tae, who succeeded him as Uri
Party chairman. He began his career as a journalist for
Munhwa Broadcasting Corporation. From February till June
2006, he served as Chairman of the Uri Party. As Chairman,
Chung proposed to form a coalition with the Democratic Party
and this created large rifts in the party and contributed to
the loss by the Uri Party. He has only 4.1 percent popular
support for his candidacy at this point and observers believe
he does not have a strong chance to gain the Uri Party
nomination.


7. (SBU) Kim Geun-tae, Chairman of the Uri Party and former
Minister of Health and Welfare has a storied background in
the pro-democracy movement. He was imprisoned for
anti-government activities in 1985. He joined the National
Assembly in 1996. In 2002, he ran unsuccessfully for the
presidential nomination for the New Millennium Democratic
Party, losing to President Roh Moo-hyun. In 2003, he was
elected as the floor leader of the Uri Party. As a
progressive reformist, more moderate party members have
criticized him. Considering his weak 2.1 percent public
support in presidential polls, many think he may take a role
as a 'kingmaker' and not seek the nomination.


8. (SBU) Since the two main Uri Party candidates have less
than 5 percent national support, pundits are spending a lot
of time coming up with names that could head the Uri ballot
next year. Most frequently mentioned are former Prime
Minister Goh Kun and Chung Un-chan whose term as president of
Seoul National University ended earlier this month.


9. (SBU) Former Prime Minister Goh Kun enjoys wide public
support (19.4 percent) and both the Uri Party and Democratic
Party (DP) have expressed their interest in having Goh as
their candidate. The former PM and Seoul Mayor has a broad
network of support in and out of politics. In 1975, Goh
served as governor of Jeonllabuk-do and in 1981 he was
appointed as Minister of Transportation and then as Minister
of Agriculture and Forestry (1981-85). In 1985 he joined the
Democratic Justice Party and in 1987 he became Minister of
Home Affairs. He served as Prime Minister in 1997 as well as

2003. Many see Goh as a safe choice who has proved his
administrative skills over a long career. However, critics
claim he has not shown dynamism or leadership that would be
needed to be an effective president.


10. (SBU) Former Seoul National University President Chung
Un-chan reaffirmed his determination not to go into politics
at his farewell ceremony at Seoul National University and
said he would return to teaching as an economics professor
beginning in the fall. Still, his name frequents political
columns, which he apparently enjoys.


11. (SBU) Kang Keum-sil, who served as Korea's first woman
minister of justice (2003-4),joined Uri on April to run for
mayor of Seoul but she was defeated by GNP's candidate Oh
Se-hoon. She blamed her party leadership and has since
attempted to distance herself from the party. Kang studied
law at Seoul National University and passed the bar in 1981.
In 1985, Kang was appointed as a judge for Seoul High Court.
She has broad appeal with women voters but her poor showing
in the Seoul mayoral election likely doomed her chances for a
presidential run.
VERSHBOW