"STRENGTHENING SELF-RELIANCE, BUT NOT AT THE COST

UNCLAS SEOUL 002182 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL ECON EAID KN KS SUBJECT: "STRENGTHENING SELF-RELIANCE, BUT NOT AT THE COST OF U.S.-ROK ALLIANCE," SAYS ROH TO ROK MILITARY ¶1. (SBU) Summary: In a recent speech to ROK generals, President Roh Moo-Hyun identified security as the most important element in inter-Korean relations, above peace and unification. While reaffirming his commitment to realizing a &self-reliant8 defense, Roh emphasized the importance of the U.S.-ROK alliance, a timely transfer of wartime operational command (OPCON),and an inter-Korean dialogue on the Northern Limit Line (NLL). In a departure from his usual public remarks, he recognized North Korea as a threat and the possibility of a military conflict on the peninsula. END SUMMARY. &Korea,s Strategic Thinking for the Future8 -------------- ¶2. (U) Titled &Korea,s Strategic Thinking for the Future,8 Roh,s 90-minute speech took place at Gyerongdae, the headquarters for all ROK military branches, immediately after the bi-annual military leaders, dialogue. Participants included Defense Minister Yoon Kwang-woon, 120 generals and chiefs of staff for the ROK Army, Navy and Air Force. Pointing out the regional and national vulnerability to instability, Roh highlighted the fragility and significance of inter-Korean relations as the possible &detonating fuse for a conflict in northeast Asia.8 Citing neighbors, invasions in the past, Roh also acknowledged the &possibility of North Korean provocation8 and identified North Korea as a security threat. Roh urged that Korea,s strategy for the future include achieving self-reliance through strengthened economic and military capabilities, attributing &lack of strategy and national strength8 as reasons for Korea,s turbulent past. Roh favorably mentioned the benefits of economic reform and exchange, hinting at his support for the U.S.-ROK Free Trade Agreement. Return of Wartime Operational Command (OPCON) -------------- ¶3. (U) Roh suggested that the return of OPCON was an imperative element in promoting a more &self-reliant defense capability.8 In an off-the-record remark, Roh revealed that the issue of returning OPCON to the ROK &has been cautiously addressed( and that this issue, along with the possibility of a reduction/withdrawal of USFK troops, was already discussed back in the late 1980s in an internal national defense posture report.8 Roh elaborated that the report reflects the &situation at the time when there was serious debate on the American side on the withdrawal of USFK troops8 and commented that &interestingly enough, both countries are (still) currently working closely with each other on these very issues.8 Roh also underscored that self-reliance is &far from anti-Americanism8 and that independent defense readiness can be achieved &while being pro-American.8 Northern Limit Line (NLL) Inter-Korean Dialogue -------------- -------------- ¶4. (U) While identifying North Korea as a potential threat, Roh expressed the need to find a &rational method of coexisting with the DPRK (on the NLL issue)8 through an inter-Korean dialogue to enhance inter-Korean confidence-building measures. Roh assured the generals that the ROKG will not be disadvantaged by initiating an inter-Korean dialogue on NLL, as is commonly perceived. Roh focused on the need to &remove potential threat factors, decrease pressure, and promote trust.8 In a following off-the-record comment, Roh justified his position by comparing the NLL dialogue with Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC),which he believed has successfully promoted inter-Korean confidence-building measures despite initial security concerns. &Gradual Progress8 -------------- ¶5. (U) Roh concluded his speech by advocating a gradual approach on various military issues, including self-reliant defense. Roh also noted his desired three-stage-unification process, beginning with economic integration, followed by cultural integration, leading to political integration, to be carried out also in a &gradual manner, over a long time span.8 REACTION -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Roh,s first speech since his party,s dramatic loss in the May 31 local elections received mixed reviews. While some observers welcomed his emphasis on the importance of the U.S.-ROK alliance, opposition GNP politicians questioned his sincerity in describing North Korea as a security threat. The military audience also expressed some uneasiness over Roh,s remarks in the need to engage the North on NLL. VERSHBOW