POLITICAL FALLOUT FROM LOCAL ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 001920 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2016 TAGS: PGOV KS SUBJECT: POLITICAL FALLOUT FROM LOCAL ELECTIONS REF: A. SEOUL 1821 ¶B. SEOUL 1090 ¶C. SEOUL 1713 Classified By: Amb. Alexander Vershbow. Reasons 1.4 (b/d) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The dust is still settling from the Uri Party's catastrophic loss in the May 31 local elections (Ref A). As reflected in post-election polls, voters used the election to send a clear message of dissatisfaction to President Roh. While President Roh has stated that he will continue the administration's current direction, Korean conservatives whisper that he may be tempted to salvage the remainder of his tenure using nationalist policies and inflammatory rhetoric, which could influence his approach to alliance issues and other matters of concern to the United States, including North Korea policy. We are not convinced that is likely, however, given the President's stubborn refusal to fit neatly into the populist box. ¶2. (C) Domestically, the loss is causing major rifts between the President and the Uri Party, and within the Party itself. Meanwhile, the Grand National Party's (GNP) Park Geun-hye appears considerably strengthened following her party's landslide victory. She will, however, continue to face challengers within the GNP, including the popular outgoing Mayor of Seoul, Lee Myung-bak. With over a year until the Presidential election, it is also too early to tell whether Korea's apparent pendulum swing to the right will be maintained. Finally, former Prime Minister Goh Kun, as the potential leader of a new party, could take advantage of the post-local election confusion to rally a winning coalition of moderates from both the ruling and opposition parties. END SUMMARY. WHY THE URI PARTY LOST -------------- ¶3. (C) Polling conducted in the wake of the May 31 GNP rout of the ruling Uri Party has confirmed that voters used the local elections to give voice to deep dissatisfaction with President Roh. According to a June 5 Gallup Korea poll of 1022 people, 49.3 percent of respondents held President Roh "greatly" responsible for the loss. A Korea Times poll of 1000 people found that 44 percent believed President Roh's "poor management of state affairs and policy failures" were the main reasons for the party's defeat. These numbers reflect growing disenchantment with the Roh administration's emphasis on historical revisionism, capital relocation, and other issues that many citizens find peripheral to their real concerns. Also, many are critical of the administration's heavy emphasis on real estate issues, where the government is raising taxes to curb "speculation." Many citizens are finding the government's policies meddlesome, ill-considered or, in the face of continuously rising housing costs, ineffective. Finally, many South Koreans have a notion that there is growing tension in the U.S.-ROK alliance and that President Roh may be responsible. While sympathy for GNP Chairwoman Park Geun-hye, following the May 20 attack, played some role in the outcome of the election, the driving force for the win appeared to be voter discontent with the administration and its failure to address fundamental economic issues. IMPACT ON THE ALLIANCE -------------- ¶4. (C) President Roh's only public remarks regarding the local elections have been to reaffirm that his administration would continue to pursue its current policies, including the pursuit of a Free Trade Agreement with the United States. ¶5. (C) As a one-term leader concerned about his legacy, some believe it is likely that President Roh will redouble his efforts to bring a second North-South Summit to fruition this year. Conservatives worry that he would also be tempted to tap nationalism -- a technique he used with success in the 2002 Presidential campaign -- to regain support. President Roh may wish to cast himself as Korea's savior from American "hegemony" in areas ranging from environmental remediation of USFK bases to rice, the Kaesong Industrial Complex or other FTA issues. Relations with Japan are likely to remain frosty, which could prompt the ROK to push the U.S. to take sides against Japan on the Liancourt Rocks (Dokdo/Takeshima), the Yasukuni Shrine or other charged topics of regional dispute. While we do not expect any drastic changes of direction, conservatives are watching for an embattled President Roh to draw a hard line on issues that touch nationalist sensitivities. Such a strategy, however, would risk backfiring as it would have little resonance among Koreans who are tired of rhetoric and would prefer a steadier focus on the economy. In the current climate, if President Roh chooses to exploit a strategy of nationalism, he is more likely to choose Japan than the United States as a target. IMPACT ON THE URI PARTY AND DOMESTIC POLICY -------------- ¶6. (C) Severe rifts have formed within the Uri Party. The first divide is between the President and the Uri Party. Many Uri members see President Roh and his policies as a liability and are hoping that the president will voluntarily depart the party. Rep. Hahn Hwa-gap's June 7 announcement that the Democratic Party (DP) would be willing to form a coalition with the Uri Party if President Roh leaves the Party gives further weight to this faction. Others do not wish the President to depart, but would rather he acknowledge voter sentiment and adjust his policies accordingly. ¶7. (C) Meanwhile, internal conflict is dividing the ranks of the party. Uri Party Chairman Chung Dong-young resigned last week. Two of the five leadership committee members soon followed in disagreement over the appointment of former Health Minister Kim Geun-tae as leader of an interim leadership committee. Many members believe that Kim's activist background and left-wing politics would further tarnish the Uri Party's image. Despite widespread misgivings, Kim is likely to win the post for lack of other suitable candidates. Indeed, having churned through nine chairmen since its inception in 2004, the Uri Party is running short of members of leadership caliber. Turmoil in the Uri leadership will make passing its agenda (Ref B) in the National Assembly -- a persistent challenge for this Administration -- even more difficult. Thus, we expect little near-term progress on labor, education, or other Uri Party domestic policy initiatives. IMPACT ON THE GRAND NATIONAL PARTY -------------- ¶8. (C) Recovering from the knife attack (Ref C),GNP Chairwoman Park Geun-hye appears to be in excellent shape following her Phoenix-like rise from the hospital to lead her party to victory on May 31. Park told us on June 6 that, in a change from previous elections, the GNP had attracted votes from across various age groups as well as from Honam voters residing outside South Jeolla Province. Critics warn, however, that voters did not necessarily support GNP; rather, they voted against the Uri Party. ¶9. (C) Moreover, for some voters Park remains a polarizing figure with an unproven record of leadership. They complain that they know where she is from and what she stands against, but not necessarily what she stands for. Further, she still has a strong rival in outgoing Seoul Mayor Lee Myung-bak, who has a successful career as chairman of Hyundai Engineering and Construction and several popular urban renewal projects to show as tangible measures of effectiveness. Gyeonggi Province Governor Sohn Hak-kyu is also a potential contender. Finally, there has long been simmering discontent with Park Geun-hye among the younger GNP members, who are feeling more confident after having orchestrated the election of one of their own, Oh Se-hoon, to be the new mayor of Seoul. In general, many observers also point out that with the presidential election still 18 months away, it may be difficult for the GNP to sustain the positive momentum. THE GOH KUN FACTOR -------------- ¶10. (C) Former Seoul Mayor and Prime Minister Goh Kun appears well-positioned to take advantage of the divisions within the Uri Party and the GNP. As a moderate statesman associated with a mature leadership style, a Goh candidacy would likely draw support from moderate members of both GNP and Uri parties. Throughout the year, Goh has consistently topped polls asking voters about potential presidential contenders. In the June 5 Gallup Poll, for example, Goh placed first with an approval rating of 26.7 percent, followed by Park Geun-hye (24.4 percent) and then Lee Myung-bak (22.8 percent). Various parties have been trying to recruit Goh over the past several months, but Goh remained noncommittal. The local elections seem to have compelled him to break his silence, at least to disavow alleged plans to join an existing party. In a June 4 interview, Goh told reporters that he would rather establish a new political coalition, an "alliance of forces pursuing pragmatic reforms." No one is quite sure what he has in mind, but if his intent is to provide an alternative to President Roh and the flailing Uri Party, the South Korean electorate would likely be receptive. VERSHBOW