PRESS BULLETIN - JUNE 5, 2006

UNCLAS SEOUL 001855 DEPT FOR EAP/K, EAP/PD, INR/EAP/K AND INR/IL/P TREASURY FOR OASIA/WINGLE USDOC FOR 4430/IEP/OPB/EAP/WGOLICKE STATE PASS USDA ELECTRONICALLY FOR FAS/ITP STATE PASS DOL/ILAB SUDHA HALEY STATE PASS USTR FOR IVES/WEISEL E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR ECON KS US SUBJECT: PRESS BULLETIN - JUNE 5, 2006 EDITORIALS/OPINIONS ¶1. How Far Will Seoul Be Swayed By Pyongyang and Washington? (Dong-a Ilbo) ¶2. A Collapse is Also an Option at the FTA Talks (Hankyoreh Shinmun) FEATURES ¶3. Joint Chiefs of Staffs Report: "ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command to Be Dissolved in 2012" (Chosun Ilbo) ¶4. If U.S. Pressure on North Korea Increases, Pyongynag Could Test Fire Missile (Dong-a Ilbo) ¶5. Rumsfeld to North: Follow Libya (JoongAng Ilbo) ¶6. Seoul Does Not Send Military Force to Khaan Quest (JoongAng Ilbo) ¶7. Korea, U.S. Mulling Halfway House for Wartime Control (Digital Chosun) ¶8. Four Out of Ten South Koreans Support ROK-U.S. FTA (KBS) ¶9. Korean Trade Protesters Arrive in U.S. (Dong-a Ilbo) TOP HEADLINES Chosun Ilbo ROK-US COMBINED FORCES COMMAND TO BE DISBANDED IN 2012 JoongAng Ilbo RULING URI PARTY ANGERED BY PRESIDENT ROH'S ELECTION-RELATED REMARKS; REBUKING HIS ECONOMIC POLICY FAILURE AND MULLING A BREAK-UP WITH HIM Dong-a Ilbo PRESIDENT HOPEFUL GOH KUN: "I WILL NOT JOIN HANDS WITH EXISTING PARTIES" Hankook Ilbo, Hankyoreh Shinmun, Segye Ilbo, Seoul Shinmun RULING URI PARTY RAPIDLY UNRAVELS IN POST-ELECTION SHOCK DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS 1 According to a military source on June 3, the ROK has decided to send 5 observers, not military troops, to the 2006 "Khaan Quest" exercise, a multilateral peace-keeping training, to be held in Mongolia in coming August, as was suggested at the 8th ROK-U.S. Security Policy Initiative in Hawaii on May 25. (JoongAng) 2 The ROK military is reportedly looking for a strategic timeframe to dismantle the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command headquarters in 2012, and, accordingly, the return of wartime control of its military from the U.S. is expected to come in no later than 2011, according to an ROK military official who cited a Joint Chiefs of Staff document on June 4. (Chosun) 3 With the first round of the ROK-U.S. FTA talks scheduled from June 5 - 9, on June 3, about 160 members of a government negotiation team and also an anti-negotiation protest expedition arrived in Washington D.C. together. (Dong-a, Seoul, Segye, KBS, MBC, SBS, OhmyNews, Preesian, TongilNews) 4 According to a poll commissioned by the Chosun Ilbo to the Korea Gallop on June 3, a total of 84.6% out of 1022 Koreans held President Roh responsible for the loss of ruling Uri Party with 49.3% seeing President Roh greatly responsible and 35.3% saying he is responsible to some extent. (Chosun) 5 In a meeting between ROK Defense Minister Yoon Kwang-ung and his U.S. counterpart on the sideline of the fifth Asia Security Conference on June 3, the two sides agreed to take step-by-step measures for the ROK to retrieve wartime control of its armed forces from the U.S. (Chosun, Hankook, Seoul, Segye, KBS, MBc, SBS, TongilNews) INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT 1 U.S. defense secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, urged North Korea to follow the "Libyan example" in a speech on Saturday at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue defense forum in Singapore. The future of the Pacific Rim, said Mr. Rumsfeld, will depend on the path North Korea takes _ whether it continues to repress its people and threaten its neighbors, or follows Libya's example that "leads back to membership in the community of nations." (JoongAng, MBC) 2 In a sign of the USG facing a growing pressure from Congress, Inside US Trade, a trade magazine, reported on June 2 that ranking House representatives from the U.S. Democratic Party had sent a letter to President Bush on May 26 "calling for an unexceptional removal of trade barriers on ROK auto market, banking, insurance, medicine, and communications, or the USG would face a fierce resistance from the Congress against the ROK-U.S. FTA." (Hankyoreh, MBC) 3 North Korea's submarine warfare capacity has increased dramatically and the number of its troops under arms has been reduced, according to a report called "Military Balance 2006" by the International Institute for Strategic Studies based in Britain. (JoongAng, Chosun) 4 A report titled "Suggestions for ROK-U.S. FTA" released by the U.S. Congressional Research Service prior to the first round of FTA talks predicted that the trade talks could flounder in the face of the unification of anti- American forces in the ROK and also face difficulty getting ratified at the ROK parliament as President Roh would go through a lame duck phase. (Segye) EDITORIALS/OPINIONS ¶1. How Far Will Seoul Be Swayed By Pyongyang and Washington? (Dong-a Ilbo, June 5, 2006, Page 30) By Koh Yu-hwan, Professor of North Korean Studies at Dongkuk University The Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) announced on June 1 that the LWR project in Shinpo, South Hankyung Province, came to an end. The reason why the 1994 Geneva Agreed Framework ended in failure was that North Korea tried to grasp at too much. After getting what it wanted by using a freeze on nuclear development as a bargaining chip, Pyongyang took out another bargaining card of missile launch and pushed for its nuclear program based upon highly enriched uranium, which brought all efforts back to the starting point. A change in U.S. policy towards the North also played its role. During the Clinton administration, there was a point of convergence between Washington's strategy to involve itself in Pyongyang and North Korea's survival strategy. However, after George W. Bush was inaugurated, the U.S. global strategy began conflicting with Pyongyang's survival strategy, which has been prolonging discords between the two nations. The ROKG is also to blame. Although Seoul was completely ignored when the Geneva Agreed Framework was adopted, it agreed to share 70% of the costs of constructing light-water nuclear reactors in North Korea. The ROKG should reflect whether or not it has yielded to U.S. demand without any say over the project. The "mutual" framework of the Geneva Agreed Framework has now been expanded into the "multilateral" framework of the Six-Party Talks. Without any high-ranking talks between the North and the U.S., no progress willt be made in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue. In order to resume the stalled nuclear talks, it is desirable for a U.S. chief negotiator to the Six-Party Talks to accept an invitation by the North and pay a visit to Pyongyang. ¶2. A Collapse is Also an Option at the FTA Talks (Hankyoreh Shinmun, June 5, 2006, Page 27) Amid concerns, the first round of the ROK-U.S. FTA talks will open today in Washington. The outcome of the talks, if things go awry, could potentially further divide the country by widening the rift between different interests. Therefore, the negotiation delegates must feel a tremendous sense of responsibility. If they continue to be submissive to the U.S. side as they were when meeting a series of U.S. demands including a cut in screen quota even before sitting down at the table, they would face disastrous consequences. An FTA statement drafted by the U.S. has caused some optimists to flinch while adding fresh concerns to those who are already deeply-concerned. U.S. demands are not merely restricted to the financial sector where the U.S. called for some new services to be introduced, but wide-ranging in their scope and topic encompassing taxation, legislation and the public sector. The U.S. also seeks to set aside agriculture and textile and pay special attention to the segments. As for the drugs, even some in the ROKG are worried that accepting U.S. demands will shake a key pricing vehicle of the national health insurance. All in all, the U.S. draft statement on FTA contains a wide range of tough demands, a lot tougher than we have anticipated. The remark by ROK chief FTA negotiator Kim Jong-hun "We will do our best to make sure that the first round of the talks will produce a balanced outcome acceptable to both sides" remains largely untrustworthy. It is not because we are blindly concerned but because the ROKG has failed to win the trust of the ROK people. With the conclusion of the deal upheld as the one and only goal of the talks, the ROKG has already given up substantial leverage to put itself on an equal footing with the U.S. Numbers do not help at this point, but, instead, an argument made by a senior economist that a small country's attempt to integrate with the world's most powerful country could wind up being suicidal and risky and seriously damage the country's global standing resonates better with us. A free trade accord with the U.S. is not the only path lying ahead of us, nor is it the path we should take in such a hurried manner. The ROK must clearly convey its positions to the U.S., and then it should show a firm stance that if these demands encounter a dead end it will walk away. If the U.S. refuses to accept our views, we can slow down our pace. First impressions are important more than anything else, because if you appear weak the other side will try to push you around. Also some back-up plans are needed to minimize the after-shock in case the talks collapse. FEATURES ¶3. Joint Chiefs of Staffs Report: "ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command to Be Dissolved in 2012" (Chosun Ilbo, June 5, 2006, Front Page) By Reporter Jang Il-hyun The ROK military was found to be looking for a strategic timeframe to dismantle the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command (CFC) in 2012, and the return of wartime control of its armed forces from the U.S. is expected to happen no later than 2011. The ROK-U.S. alliance which was bound over the course of bloodshed during the 1950 Korean War will supposedly undergo a seismic change in its structure and format. An ROK military source said on June 4, "A key document of the Joint Chiefs of Staffs on military strategies clarly points to 2012 as the time when the ROK-U.S. CFC will be disbanded and plans to restructure the ROK military will proceed accordingly." The document the source refers to is a first-class military report that is upgraded every three years entitled "Joint Military Strategy (JMS)." All the operations and organizations of the ROK military are drawn on this JMS report and so are mid-term defense plans. The part about "the dissolution of the bilateral CFC" is reportedly included in the "Future Direction of the ROK Military Structure". "The year 2012 is the time when the concept of "cooperative and independent defense" relentlessly pushed by President Roh will be complete and the dismantlement of the ROK-U.S. CFC following the return of the wartime control will put the finishing touches on the plan," said the source. What kind of form the ROK-U.S. military alliance will take in wake of the removal of the CFC remains unclear. Some possible ideas include: a) the ROK and the U.S. will likely join the further strengthened UN Command and b) a more cooperative system will be introduced where the armed forces of both countries support and complement each other's combatant capabilities while independently keeping their own operational and command rights. Most military experts foresee that the ROK military's regaining its wartime control will probably come ahead of the breakup of the ROK-U.S. CFC. ROK Defense Minister Yoon Kwang-ung repeatedly said, "Making preparations for the return will take about five years at the least." Another military source said, "Preparing for the regain is in its final stage, so, only if the ROK and the U.S. reach an agreement on this, this could happen right away. Some military officials put the timeline for the return around 2011-2012. ¶4. If U.S. Pressure on North Korea Increases, Pyongynag Could Test Fire Missile (Dong-a Ilbo, June 5, 2006, Page 2) By Reporter Lee Myung-gun and Washington Correspondent Kim Seung-ryun It was learned on June 2 that the ROKG understood if U.S. pressure on North Korea builds up, Pyongyang could test-fire Taepo dong-1 or 2 missiles. This judgment was reportedly based upon photographs of Musudan-ri, Hwadae county in North Hankyung Province (former Daepodong) taken by a U.S. intelligence satellite. In its analysis of the statement from North Korea that "If the U.S. steps up its pressure, we cannot but take a highly stringent action," Seoul said the action meant missile firing. Based on this analysis, the ROKG delivered its position to the U.S. on June 1 that Assistant Secretary Christopher Hill needed to visit North Korea in an attempt to block Pyongyang from launching a missile and bring it back to the Six-Party Talks. The Taepo dong-2 missile has a range of 4,300-6,000 kilometers and its improved model has an estimated range of 15,000 kilometers covering the U.S. mainland. On June 1, Ambassador Vershbow appeared on a CBS radio show, where he said, "The missile issue is very serious. Since it is related to intelligence, we cannot say whether there will be a missile test or not, but it is certain that this is a serious problem." ¶5. Rumsfeld to North: Follow Libya (JoongAng Ilbo, June 5, 2006, Page 2) By Military Affairs Reporter Kim Min-suk U.S. defense aide also cites Russia and China as problems The U.S. defense secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, urged North Korea to follow the "Libyan example" in a speech on Saturday at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue defense forum in Singapore. The future of the Pacific Rim, said Mr. Rumsfeld, will depend on the path North Korea takes _ whether it continues to repress its people and threaten its neighbors, or follows Libya's example that "leads back to membership in the community of nations." Libya agreed to completely scrap its weapons of mass destruction program in December 2003 and the United States, in return, said it would restore full diplomatic ties with the North African country. Security cooperation among nations in Southeast Asia is expanding but could be set back if China, Russia and North Korea don't become more open and less threatening, Mr. Rumsfeld said to delegates from the Asia-Pacific region attending the annual conference hosted by the International Institute for Strategic Studies. "The way ahead for other nations will be something that our country will watch closely," said Mr. Rumsfeld, citing attempts by Russia to restrict the freedom of neighboring countries, the continued lack of transparency in China's military budget and threats by North Korea to develop nuclear weapons. He also pledged that the United States would stay involved in Southeast Asia and pointed to improved relations between the United States and Japan, India, Indonesia, South Korea and Pakistan. After the speech, Mr. Rumsfeld met with Seoul's defense minister, Yoon Kwang-ung, who was attending the conference that started Friday and ended yesterday. "The two countries reaffirmed that their alliance is significant for the stability of the Korean Peninsula and for the Northeast Asian region and agreed to make smooth progress regarding issues related to the alliance," said Kwon An-do, deputy defense minister for policy, who was at the meeting. ¶6. Seoul Does Not Send Military Force to Khaan Quest (JoongAng Ilbo, June 5, 2006, Page 2) By Washington Correspondent Kang Chan-ho A U.S. military source said on June 3 that the ROK would send five observers to the "Khaan Quest" exercise, a multinational peace-keeping training set to start in Mongolia in August. According to the source, the ROK conveyed this decision to the U.S. at the eighth ROK-U.S. Security Policy Initiative meeting that was held in Hawaii on May 25. Washington requested the ROK to send about 150-strong military force to the joint military exercise last year. After mulling over the request for as long as over half a year, however, the ROK has recently decided to dispatch only observers. Behind this decision, Seoul appeared to have been concerned that its large-scale participation could provoke Beijing. But the U.S. military source dismissed this speculation, saying, "The U.S. also requested China to join the training as an observer, and the exercise has only the purpose of maintaining peace." Seoul has refused to participate in the U.S.-led Proliferation Security Initiative exercise before recently deciding to "observe" the exercise. It also declined to join the PSI training at the level of maritime police hosted by the U.S., Japan and Russia. ¶7. Korea, U.S. Mulling Halfway House for Wartime Control (Digital Chosun, June 5, 2006) A new combined command structure is being considered where the nation's armed forces take charge of ground operations and the U.S. Forces Korea of aerial and maritime operations in an emergency on the Korean Peninsula, source said. Under the existing command structure, the commander of Combined Forces Command (CFC) under U.S. control exercises wartime operational control on all ground, maritime and aerial operations. The idea is to strengthen the role of Korea's armed forces before full wartime operational is returned. "Research is being conducted from a variety of viewpoints about how to change the roles played by Korea and U.S. forces to achieve the most effective operational command in the Korean Peninsula theater," a military official said Friday. "Command structures being discussed in the Security Policy Initiative meetings between the two allies include one where the nation's armed forces control combined ground troops and the USFK controls or assists maritime and aerial forces." Defense Minister Yoon Kwang-ung and his U.S. counterpart Donald Rumsfeld will meet on the sidelines of the Asia Security Conference in Singapore on Saturday afternoon to coordinate opinions about progress. Meanwhile, North Korea has some 10 more submarines than South Korean armed forces believed. Its artillery corps have increased to two. "The Military Balance 2006" a report which compares military capabilities around the world, published by the U.K. International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) estimates that the North has 88 submarines, as against the 70 or so Korea's Defense White Paper last year indicated. The IISS report says North Korea possesses 22 1,800-ton Romio class subs produced by the former Soviet Union, 21 300- ton Shark class subs of the kind that infiltrated waters off Gangneung in 1996, and subs smaller than 200-tons. In addition, the North owns several Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) developed in the former Soviet Union, the report says. ¶8. Four Out of Ten South Koreans Support ROK-U.S. FTA (KBS, June 4, 2006) By Reporter Hwang Dong-jin Anchor: Today, we have the last part of the series on the ROK-U.S. FTA. According to the outcome of a recent opinion poll on the trade pact, supporters somewhat outnumbered opponents, and yet many people were reluctant to give their opinions, saying that they did not know what the FTA was. Hwang Dong-jin reports. Hwang: With the ROK-U.S. FTA talks set to start tomorrow, supporters are found to outnumber opponents. According to a nationwide survey of 1,000 adults conducted by KBS, 39% supported the FTA while 22% objected to the trade deal. However, as much as 36% were found to neither support nor oppose. As the reasons to approve the trade pact, 45% of the respondents said the FTA would enhance the competitiveness of domestic industries, and 31% answered that it would help reinvigorate the economy. Among the opponents, 43% said that if the FTA is concluded, the ROK economy could be subordinated to the U.S. influence, and 25% responded that Seoul is pushing for the FTA talks in great haste. Asked about the sectors that should be opened, 48% picked social services, 37% agriculture, stockbreeding and fisheries, and 13% manufacturing industries. On the contrary, 78% and 13% chose agriculture, stockbreeding and fisheries, and social services, respectively, as the sectors that should stay closed. Concerning the influence of the ROK-U.S. FTA on the ROK society, 51% answered that it would have positive influence while 45% said it would have negative impact on the Korean society. Meanwhile, one out of three South Koreans responded that they knew little about the ROK-U.S. FTA. This survey was commissioned by the KBS News Headquarters to the KBS Broadcasting Culture Research Team, which interviewed 1,001 adults aged 20 and older across the nation by telephone. The poll's margin of error was plus or minus 3.1 percent, with 95-percent reliability in its results. ¶9. Korean Trade Protesters Arrive in U.S. (Dong-a Ilbo, June 5, 2006, Page 2) By Washington Correspondent Kim Seung-ryun With the opening of the free trade agreement between Korea and the U.S. three days ahead, about 160 members of a government negotiation team and an anti-negotiation protest expedition arrived in Washington D.C. together on June 3. The first round of the negotiations, which will be held from June 5 to June 9, will mainly serve as a chance to find out each other's negotiation strategies. In the first round to be attended by Kim Jong-hun, ambassador of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, and U.S. government institutions such as the USTR and the Department of State, 22 fields, including agriculture, textiles and telecommunications will be discussed. The U.S. negotiation team consists of 60 people. Choi Seok-young, an economic representative at the Korean embassy in the U.S. said in a press conference on June 2, "It seems that Korea will mainly focus on the agricultural field such as the rice market, and the U.S. will aggressively deal with the protection of industrial products, such as textiles." This negotiation team includes professional translators. An official said, "Even though the negotiation team is specialized in telecommunications and medicine, we intentionally use interpreters in order to have a quiet atmosphere and obtain common understanding." The second round will be held in Seoul in July. Meanwhile, it is said that the protest expedition aimed at hampering the FTA between Korea and the U.S. is likely to go to New York via a third city, since attempting to enter through the Washington airport, could create entry problems for the protestors. All 50 of the protesters began to demonstrate in alliance with some 100 members of a Korean civic group in the U.S. and hundreds of members of ANSWER (Act Now to Stop War and End Racism) around the White House starting June 4. An official of the protest expedition said, "Our objective is to get across our message that some Koreans are against the FTA negotiations. We will do our best to demonstrate peacefully." In a protest on the same day, some congressmen of the Democratic Party, including Dennis Kucinich, also participated. They represented manufacturing unions in the U.S. who fear that American jobs will be lost because of FTAs. However, the leadership of the Democratic Party sent a letter to George W. Bush last month to urge him to ensure that the FTA between Korea and the U.S. make a tangible and meaningful approach to the Korean automobile market. VERSHBOW NNNN