GNP LEAD WIDENS AFTER ATTACK ON PARK GEUN-HYE

UNCLAS SEOUL 001791 SIPDIS CORRECTED COPY- CAPTION AND DISTRIBUTION SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL KS KN SUBJECT: GNP LEAD WIDENS AFTER ATTACK ON PARK GEUN-HYE REF: A. SEOUL 1713 ¶B. SEOUL 1642 SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Polls indicate that the May 20 attack on the main opposition Grand National Party (GNP) leader and presidential hopeful Park Geun-hye has influenced voters in swing provinces to vote GNP, which is forecasted to win at least 11 out of the 16 major mayoral and gubernatorial contests. Sympathy votes generated by the attack on Park could even tip the scales in Daejeon, where the Uri incumbent's lead is narrowing, and Jeju, where the GNP now holds a slight edge over the independent incumbent. The ruling Uri candidates appear to be guaranteed a win in only the North Jeolla Province. In the face of defeat, Uri Party members have desperately pleaded to voters to prevent a GNP sweep; however, a landslide defeat appears inevitable and will likely cause the party's leadership to reorganize. END SUMMARY. GNP'S APPROVAL RATINGS UP -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The popularity of the main opposition Grand National Party (GNP) and its leader Park Geun-hye increased substantially after Park was attacked by an assailant with a box-cutter while campaigning on behalf of the GNP mayor candidate in Seoul (Ref A). She suffered a deep four inch cut to her face that required 60 stitches. Following the attack, polls have placed Park in the lead as a potential presidential candidate in next year's election. In a survey conducted May 20-22 by MBC, Park placed first with 21.5 percent, followed by former Prime Minister Goh Kun with 21.1 percent, and Seoul Mayor Lee Myung-bak at third with 18.1 percent. ¶3. (SBU) The attack appears to have helped Park project a new image among the Korean public as a tough but calm leader. As a leading contender for the GNP nomination for next year's presidential race, the attack may also boost Park's chance of winning the party's nomination and the presidency, although, of course, the election is still eighteen months away. (NOTE: Park is the daughter of former President Park Chung-hee who led South Korea from 1961 until his assassination in October 1979. Her mother was also assassinated, in August 1974. She will be stepping down as the party chairwoman in July to prepare her presidential bid. END NOTE.) GAP CLOSING IN JEJU AND DAEJEON -------------- ¶4. (SBU) General disappointment with the ruling Uri Party and President Roh Moo-hyun among South Koreans coupled with the attack on Park have put the GNP well ahead of Uri in the May 31 local elections. A recent poll by Gallup Korea indicates that after the incident, the GNP support jumped to 44 percent compared to the Uri Party's 20.1 percent. In February, a similar Gallup poll had shown the GNP at 35 percent, and the Uri Party at 22.8 percent. ¶5. (SBU) In Jeju, where the incumbent candidate had a sizable lead a few weeks ago, the GNP candidate is now running neck and neck. A recent poll conducted after the attack by KBS/Media Research now show Kim Tae-hwan (Ind.) at 31.2 percent and Hyun Myung-kwan (GNP) at 31.4 percent. Previous polls showed Kim with 36 percent and Hyun with 19 percent (Ref B). ¶6. (SBU) In Daejeon, Park Sung-hyo (GNP) is also catching up to incumbent Daejeon Mayor Yum Hong-chul (Uri). Daejeon, located in the Chungcheong Province, is a key swing bloc. The assault appears to have led some voters toward voting GNP. A poll conducted the day after the attack by the Hankook Ilbo showed that Yum's support dropped from 46 percent to 40 percent but Park's support rose only modestly from 23 percent to 23.8 percent. SEOUL: GNP GUARANTEED TO WIN -------------- ¶7. (SBU) In Seoul, Oh Se-hoon (GNP) is expected to win the mayoral race with overwhelming support over Kang Kum-sil (Uri); he leads 51 percent to Kang's 25 percent, according to a poll conducted by the JoongAng Daily. Earlier polls showed Oh with 50 percent and Kang with 32 percent (Ref B). Oh, a former lawyer and assemblymen, chose to run for the mayor of Seoul at the last minute and easily won the GNP bid. His youthfulness and fresh ideas have made him popular among the public. Former Justice Minister Kang, who also has popular appeal, has seen her support steadily decline over the past month. URI PARTY POST LOCAL ELECTIONS -------------- ¶8. (SBU) In a desperate plea to voters, the ruling Uri party and its leader Chung Dong-young, gathered at a news conference on May 25 urging voters not to allow a sweeping victory for the GNP. To rally last minute support from undecided voters, the Uri Party acknowledged on national television that they were painfully aware of the public's dissatisfaction with the party and pleaded to voters to give their candidates a chance. ¶9. (SBU) Yet, a landslide defeat appears inevitable for the Uri Party in 11 out of the 16 mayor and governor contests, and potentially 12 if including Jeju. Prof. Lee Nae-young of Korea University, a specialist on elections and polling, noted that Uri leader Chung will likely have to take responsibility for the defeat even though expectations for success were minimal. ¶10. (SBU) According to Lee and media reporting, the Uri Party may also try to realign itself with another party, potentially the Democratic Party and/or the People First Party, to form an anti-GNP coalition. Lee noted that the Uri Party may try to recruit Goh Kun who is currently unaffiliated with a political party to lead the new coalition. However, Goh will likely not align himself with a losing Uri party; in March 2006, Goh had rejected a Uri partnership. Instead, he may be holding out for a new political party to form. In public opinion polls, Goh routinely ranks first or second as a potential presidential candidate. ¶11. (SBU) COMMENT. One important reason Chung must assume responsibility for Uri's inevitable defeat is that he insisted to President Roh that then Prime Minister Lee Hae-chan resign over the golf scandal. Chung apparently persuaded Roh that retaining Lee would be disastrous in the coming elections, and so, Lee had to go. END COMMENT. VERSHBOW