DAEJEON: RULING PARTY'S SOLE HOPE FOR VICTORY

UNCLAS SEOUL 001732 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KS SUBJECT: DAEJEON: RULING PARTY'S SOLE HOPE FOR VICTORY REF: A. SEOUL 1642 ¶B. SEOUL 1713 SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Daejeon City is one of the few races that the ruling Uri Party is reasonably projected to win in the upcoming May 31 local elections (Ref A),despite gains by the GNP in the aftermath of the recent attack on GNP Chairwoman Park Geun-hye (Ref B). As Daejeon is the ROK's geographic heart, its burgeoning base of high-tech industry and the future home of its proposed administrative capital, a win here is not insignificant. However, an Uri Party victory in Daejeon would more likely be the result of the personal popularity of incumbent Mayor Yom Hong-chul, than a vote of confidence in the ruling party. Indications are that the People First Party, Shim Dae-pyong's new regional party, will not be a significant contender. END SUMMARY. FORMER GNP MAYOR LIKELY TO DRIVE URI SUCCESS -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Daejeon Mayor Yum Hong-chul (Uri) retains a large lead over his rival and former Vice Mayor Park Sung-ho (GNP). Rep. Park Byeong-seug, Chairman of the Uri Party Daejeon District chapter, said he was "99 percent" confident that Yum would be victorious in his reelection bid. In a May 15 conversation with poloff, Park said that Daejeon voters were concerned about economic issues, corruption in politics and the new administrative capital, which some feared might be in jeopardy if the GNP won the 2007 presidential election. Yum, who defected from the GNP to join Uri in 2005, was perceived as strong on all three issues. ¶2. (SBU) Park acknowledged that Yum's success could not necessarily be seen as a measure of the Uri Party's popularity. Pointing to local polls that showed the GNP's towering support rate and the GNP's lead in the five other local seats that are at stake, Park said that at least in Daejeon, the voters were supporting the candidate, not the party. (NOTE: Park said that a critical race would be Gwangju, where Uri would focus most of its campaign resources. END NOTE.). ¶3. (SBU) Chungnam University (located in Daejeon) Political Science Prof. Yoo Byeong-seon agreed that Yum's success was more personal, not indicative of support for the Uri Party. Yoo said that when Yum switched from the GNP to Uri, he brought with him 5,000 dues-paying members of the local GNP chapter. In one stroke, Yum had mobilized a core of political loyalists in his favor, while gutting the ranks of the local GNP chapter. GNP CONFIDENT ABOUT FIVE OTHER REGIONAL SEATS -------------- ¶4. (SBU) That said, GNP Daejeon District Chapter Chairman Kang Chang-hee told poloff May 15, it was too early to rule out a GNP victory for mayor. He said that Yum enjoyed a large lead at the moment, but that was natural for any incumbent candidate. The biggest challenge in the region would be to overcome the misperception that the GNP was against the planned administrative city. He said that some party members from Seoul were opposed, but the overall party position was to support the initiative. Once the voters understood this point, he predicted, they would back GNP candidate Park Sung-ho. ¶5. (SBU) In fact, the gap between Yum and the GNP challenger has narrowed over the past few days in the aftermath of the May 27 attack on GNP Chairwoman Park (Ref B). However, Park has not increased in popularity; rather, Yum has apparently decreased in popularity. In the latest polls, 40 percent of the public supported Yum while 23 percent supported the GNP's Park. In polls previous to the attack, Yum enjoyed a 46 percent approval rating. ¶6. (SBU) Kang expressed more confidence, however, in the five other Daejeon-area races. Kang echoed Park's observation that, aside from the mayoral race, GNP enjoyed higher support in general pre-election polling and was likely to win all other regional race in contention. PEOPLE FIRST PARTY FACES FIRST ELECTORAL TEST -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Shim Dae-pyong, former South Chungcheong Province governor and Co-Chairman of the new People First Party (PFP) told poloff May 15 it was too early to predict the election because as many as 65 percent of voters were still undecided. He said that because central province citizens trusted neither the GNP nor the Uri Party, he felt compelled to create his party "to give hope to the region." Shim said that the two larger parties had no real interest in local politics and only traveled out of Seoul at election time. Despite the focus on regional issues, Shim said he envisioned a party with nationwide appeal. ¶8. (SBU) Dismissing talk of a merger with any other party as premature, Shim said that the PFP would establish its credibility in the local elections. Asked about his widely-reported efforts to recruit former Mayor and Prime Minister Goh Kun to his party, Shim said that political circles would have to "wait and see." ¶9. (SBU) Political circles, however, did not seem too concerned about the PFP's prospects. The GNP's Kang said that the country had moved beyond the regional politics that the PFP represented. He said that although there was initial speculation that the party could signal a resurgence of regionalism, Kang believed that the party's low support rate and failure to attract any high-profile candidates were preliminary signs of failure. The Uri Party's Park likewise believed that the PFP did not represent a formidable challenge, and said that it would be a major victory if the PFP were able to win even one seat. ¶10. (SBU) Chungnam University Political Science Prof. Cho Chan-rai concurred. Cho told Poloff on May 16 that the PFP was an effort to resurrect the golden years of the United Liberal Democrats under Kim Jong-pil. However, without Kim Jong-pil's charisma and organizational ability, Shim was likely to fail. Cho also said that the major parties clearly understood the importance of central province voters and were paying more attention to their needs, thus undercutting the need for a regional party. COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Daejeon is one of the few major races that the Uri Party might win in the May 31 local elections. However, success there should not be read as an indicator of general support for the party, which is still posting overall support rates in the low 20s. Mayor Yum, although on the Uri Party ballot, has until recently been a GNP politician and is running solely on his own, not the party's, popularity. Despite Yum's apparent strength, there is a chance that GNP Chairwoman Park Geun-hye, who has roots in the Chungcheong Province and proved herself to be a regional force during the 2005 bye-elections, could make the race closer than currently projected. The race may also be the first, and probably final, test of Shim's PFP. With the PFP unlikely to win anything, it will likely descend into irrelevance and disappear. END COMMENT. VERSHBOW