OUTLOOK FOR MAY 31 REGIONAL ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 001642 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/16/2016 TAGS: PGOV KS SUBJECT: OUTLOOK FOR MAY 31 REGIONAL ELECTIONS Classified By: POL M/C Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Polls indicate that the main opposition Grand National Party (GNP) will win 11 of the 16 gubernatorial and major mayoral races in nation-wide regional elections on May 31. The ruling Uri Party and the Democratic Party (DP) are projected to win in two races each, while the independent incumbent is likely to retain Jeju Province. Experts say the upcoming vote is shaping up to be a "protest vote" against the Roh Administration, but that it remains to be seen whether the GNP will be able to convert dissatisfaction with Roh into support for the GNP in the lead-up to the December 2007 presidential election. END SUMMARY. GNP POISED TO WIN AGAIN -------------- ¶2. (U) As the National Election Commission begins registering candidates for the May 31 nation-wide regional elections, all polls show the main opposition Grand National Party (GNP) with commanding leads in 11 of the 16 gubernatorial and major mayoral races, sweeping the Youngnam region (Gyeongsang Provinces, Daegu, Busan),Gyeonggi Province, and Seoul. ¶3. (U) The ruling Uri Party, despite fielding several high-profile former Cabinet ministers, is projected to win just two races, Daejeon mayor and North Jeolla Province governor. The Democratic Party (DP) is expected to win the other two races in Jeolla, while the independent incumbent governor of Jeju Province is likely to retain his seat. The left-wing Democratic Labor Party (DLP) is running second in one race (Ulsan) and third in 10 races. Meanwhile, the recently formed People First Party (PFP),successor to the now defunct United Liberal Democrats (ULD),is struggling to maintain support in the ULD's traditional stronghold, the Chungcheong Provinces. ¶4. (U) The 16 races and their projected winners, closest competitors, and support rates are: - Seoul: GNP Oh Se-hoon (GNP) (50%) v. Kang Kum-sil (Uri) (32 %) - Gyeonggi Province: GNP Kim Moon-soo (GNP) (45%) v. Chin Dae-je (Uri) (24%) - Incheon: GNP Ahn Sang-soo (GNP) (47%) v. Choi Ki-sun (Uri) (17%) - Daejeon: Uri Yum Hong-chul (Uri) (46%) v. Park Sung-ho (GNP) (21%) - N. Chungcheong Province: GNP Jung Woo-taek (GNP) (50%) v. Han Bum-deok (Uri) (24%) - S. Chungcheong Province: GNP Lee Wan-koo (GNP) (33%) v. Oh Young-kyo (Uri) (21%) - Gwangju: DP Park Kwang-tae (DP) (41%) v. Kim Jae-kyun (Uri) (25%) - Gangwon Province: GNP Kim Jin-sun (GNP) (60%) v. Lee Chang-bok (Uri) (15%) - N. Jeolla Province: Uri Kim Wan-ju (Uri) (50%) v. Jung Kyun-hwan (DP) (14%) - S. Jeolla Province: DP Park Joon-young (DP) (49%) v. Suh Bum-seok (Uri) (15%) - N. Gyeongsang Province: GNP Kim Kwan-yong (GNP) (56%) v. Park Myung-jae (Uri) (17%) - S. Gyeongsang Province: GNP Kim Tae-ho (GNP) (51%) v. Kim Doo-kwan (Uri) (20%) - Ulsan: GNP Park Maeng-woo (GNP) (57%) v. Roh Ok-hee (DLP) (18%) - Daegu: GNP Kim Bum-il (GNP) (44%) v. Lee Jae-yong (Uri) (21%) - Busan: GNP Huh Nam-sik (GNP) (48%) v. Oh Geo-don (Uri) (19%) - Jeju Province: Independent Kim Tae-hwan (Ind.) (36%) v. Hyun Myung-gwan (GNP) (25%) ¶5. (U) The above numbers are taken from a poll conducted April 30 through May 2 by the Korea Research Center and published May 4 in the Donga Ilbo. Other polls since then show slight variation in support rates, but consistently show the same results in terms of winners and losers. Analysts believe the only race that could see an upset is the Jeju gubernatorial race, in which the incumbent, who recently left the GNP and became an independent, is facing off against a GNP challenger. WHAT IT MEANS FOR ROH, REGIONALISM, 2007 -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Projected results for the May 31 elections demonstrate that regionalism remains a decisive factor in electoral behavior, with the GNP dominating the eastern Youngnam region and central metropolitan centers (Gyeongsang Provinces, Daegu, Ulsan, Busan, Seoul, Incheon),and Uri and the DP battling still for control over the western Honam region (Jeolla Provinces, Gwangju). As the PFP struggles for traction, the GNP appears to be making headway into the heartland (Chungcheong Province, Gyeonggi Province, Gangwon Province, Daejeon),whose voters have traditionally cast the key swing votes in presidential elections. ¶7. (C) The projected results also reflect growing dissatisfaction with the Roh Administration's performance. This is most evident in the GNP's dominance of the races around Seoul and in Gyeonggi Province, usually competitive grounds for Uri and its predecessor parties. Although some in the ruling Uri Party had sought to distance the party from President Roh in an attempt to ameliorate the drag factor, the party chose several Roh former Cabinet ministers as its standard bearers in key races. All of them, including the high-profile former Justice Minister Kang Kum-sil, are facing certain defeat -- many by embarrassingly wide margins -- at the hands of GNP rivals. ¶8. (C) Experts say that the May 31 elections will constitute a strong "protest vote" against the Roh Administration, but caution against seeing the regional votes as a bellwether for the December 2007 presidential election. Prof. Kang Won-taek, one of Korea's foremost electoral experts, noted to Pol/Int Chief that it was not unusual for the opposition to win mid-term elections in Korea, and that these mid-term wins often do not translate into presidential victory. ¶9. (C) Park predicted a major political realignment in the wake of the May 31 elections, with the possibility of formal splintering in both Uri and the GNP, whose respective leaders appear at the moment just barely able to contain internal dissent and competition. Most analysts agree that Uri leader Chung Dong-young has the most to lose. If, as projected, his party loses in 14 of 16 races, his rivals are certain to pin the blame on him and challenge his leadership, damaging his aspirations to win the party's berth for the 2007 presidential race. But with expectations at a nadir, an upset win anywhere could enable Chung to claim victory. ¶10. (C) As for GNP leader Park Geun-hye, she has announced her intention to step down shortly after the May 31 regional elections in order, ostensibly, to prepare her presidential bid. But as cronies of Seoul Mayor Lee Myung-bak prepare to "retake" the GNP -- party number two Lee Jae-oh is one of Lee's closest allies -- Park might be tempted to establish a new base from which to launch her bid for the Blue House, Prof. Park said. MINTON