Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
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06SARAJEVO3058 | 2006-11-30 15:47:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Sarajevo |
1. (SBU) Bosnian leaders and the general public hailed the decision to offer Bosnia an invitation into the Partnership for Peace (PfP) at NATO's Riga Summit as an historic event, noting Bosnia's clear progress in integrating into Euro-Atlantic structures. The decision could serve as an impetus to spur the lagging reform agenda, and is a high-profile validation of the difficult choices made by Bosnian leaders in accepting defense reform. The PfP invitation further provides us an opportunity to highlight the benefits of continuing with sometimes difficult reforms. -------------------------- --- OFFICIALS, PUBLIC EMBRACE CLEAR SIGN OF PROGRESS -------------------------- --- 2. (SBU) The decision to offer Bosnia membership in PfP came as a surprise to government officials and the public alike. The announcement from Riga was met with celebration and self-congratulation in official circles and resulted in striking images of unity. In an extraordinary joint news conference in front of the Bosnian state flag, all three members of Bosnia's Tri-Presidency hailed the decision as a validation of Bosnia's progress. Presidency member Haris Silajdzic stated, "this invitation represents a reward for all efforts, reforms and transitions, as well as encouragement for all those who want to see BiH as an EU member state." Defense Minister Radovanovic welcomed the decision, and announced that Bosnia had now started the process towards full NATO membership. Radovanovic also urged authorities to not allow their cooperation on PIFWC issues to slow. Prime Minister Adnan Terzic claimed responsibility for leading Bosnia into PfP, saying it was "the crown of my government's work." Even RS Prime Minister Milorad Dodik publicly and vocally praised the decision as "great news." 3. (SBU) The PfP announcement led both television and print news. With headlines such as "Historic Decision for our State," "Our Country Finally Part of the European Family," and "Big Day for Bosnia and Herzegovina," the decision was portrayed as a profound and positive step towards lasting peace and security. A television news poll found 75 percent of respondents saying that PfP membership would serve to strengthen security within the country. Newspaper commentaries also trumpeted the invitation, focusing on the potential contributions to stability that PfP would bring along and its corresponding validation of defense reform. The only sour note sounded during the day came from ICTY Chief Prosecutor Carla Del Ponte. The Bosnian press widely quoted Del Ponte who is visiting Bosnia November 30, as stating that PfP was an "award for non-cooperation." -------------------------- BOSNIA READY TO PROCEED -------------------------- 4. (C) Assistant Defense Minister and Bosnia's co-chairman of the inter-agency PfP working group Zoran Sajinovic told us that Bosnia is prepared to move forward and engage Brussels on its PfP requirements. Sajinovic noted that the announcement at Riga had taken the Bosnian government by surprise, but that fact should not delay Bosnia's ability to meet its obligations. While clearly pleased with the decision, Sajinovic sounded two notes of caution: that the Bosnian leadership now had to "get serious" and recognize that Bosnia is on the threshold of the preeminent security organization; and, that Bosnia continued to be linked to Serbia, whose record on PIFWC and other cooperation remains deficient. -------------------------- STABILIZING DEFENSE REFORM? -------------------------- 5. (C) Inclusion in PfP should provide a boost to the pace of defense reform, which has slowed in recent months. At the very least, political and military leaders can now point to a tangible benefit to pursuing defense reform. Furthermore, as Defense Minister Radovanovic noted yesterday, Bosnia's next SARAJEVO 00003058 002 OF 002 objective will be full alliance membership, a goal shared by most political leaders. Moving through the PARP and MAP processes will require the MOD and armed forces to exhibit a greater level of cohesiveness and competence in implementing key defense reforms-- to "get serious" in Sajinovic's words. -------------------------- COMMENT: SHOWING THE PATH FORWARD -------------------------- 6. (C) The importance of the PfP decision for Bosnia cannot be overstated. For the first time, Bosnia received an unequivocal signal that it is firmly on par with other countries in Europe and moving down a path of further integration. The decision also illustrates the potential to unite a divided population presented by recognition in Euro-Atlantic organizations. Following the announcement, the Bosnian leadership engaged in displays of unity and mutual congratulation not witnessed in recent memory. This reaction demonstrates that despite the fractious current political climate, Bosnian leaders across the political and ethnic spectrum share the broad policy goal of integrating into Euro-Atlantic structures. Political leaders adopted defense reform not due to an appreciation for the importance of a single, multi-ethnic armed force in itself, but rather because all sides recognized the value of moving under the security umbrella of the NATO alliance and further into "the West." 7. (C) In the face of the international community's drawdown in Bosnia, NATO and PfP should serve to partially fill the vacuum and provide a new impetus for continued reform. The decision also presents opportunities for the U.S. to leverage key reform commitments We can point to a tangible benefit to undertaking what Bosnian leaders sometimes view as painful and forced reforms. The PfP decision will also serve as a powerful reaffirmation of our message that the international community is not abandoning Bosnia, and continued reform is the key to further integration into Euro-Atlantic structures. CEFKIN |