SILAJDZIC HAS POTENTIAL TO SCUTTLE AFGHAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SARAJEVO 002908 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR (DICARLO),D (SMITH),P (BAME),EUR/SCE (HOH, SAINZ, FOOKS),AND EUR/RPM (BROTZEN),NSC FOR BRAUN, USNIC FOR WIGHTMAN, OSD FOR MARK JONES, USNATO FOR SHAFFER E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR BK SUBJECT: SILAJDZIC HAS POTENTIAL TO SCUTTLE AFGHAN DONATION, IRAQ DEPLOYMENT REF: SARAJEVO 2575 Classified By: Charge Judith Cefkin for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) -------------- SILAJDIC PUTS AFGHAN ARMS DONATION ON HOLD -------------- ¶1. (C) Newly elected Bosniak member of the Tri- Presidency Haris Silajdzic removed the decision on the Bosnian arms and ammo donation to Afghanistan from the presidency agenda for its November 14 session. The move effectively blocks the donation in the near term, and is line with Silajdzic's criticism of such transfers during the election campaign. According to Dzuro Beronja, Defense and Security Advisor to the Chairman of the Presidency, Silajdzic repeated his assertion that weapons donated to Afghanistan and Iraq were improperly monitored and would be used to kill fellow Muslims. (Note. Silajdzic is referring to the furor raised by an Amnesty International report that claimed that substantial numbers of weapons from a Bosnian arms donation to Iraq were unaccounted for. End note). Beronja noted that the Serb and Croat members of the new Tri-Presidency supported the donation, and hoped the GoBiH would honor its commitment to make it. -------------- -------------- MOVE SIGNALS FUTURE PROBLEMS WITH IRAQ DEPLOYMENT? -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Beronja also cautioned that Silajdzic could prove an impediment to future Bosnian deployments to coalition and alliance efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan. Bosnia recently deployed the fourth rotation of its Explosive Ordinance Disposable (EOD) Unit to support Operation Iraqi Freedom. Each subsequent deployment, such as for the fifth EOD rotation or a future Bosnian contribution to the NATO mission in Afghanistan, would require presidency approval. Silajdzic has already questioned such deployments, Beronja told us, and could block them in the same manner as the Afghan arms donations. -------------- -------------- COMMENT: SILAJDZIC HAS POTENTIAL TO HINDER COALITION, ALLIANCE EFFORTS -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Silajdzic and his proxies used prior Bosnian arms transfers to Iraq for political gain in the election campaign against former President Tihic. Tihic was so concerned that he would be labeled a facilitator of a global campaign against Muslims, that he bowed to pressure from Silajdzic's allies and refused to approve the Afghan arms donation before the election. We had hoped that post-election, the political temperature on the issue would have cooled. It may be that Silajdzic is taking a "principled" stand on the issue, which simply reflects a broader shift to the right among Bosniaks on war on terror-related issues (see reftel). If so, he could very well treat the Iraq, and any other overseas, deployment in the same manner, just as Beronja warns. ¶4. (C) We will continue to press Bosniak officials, including Silajdzic, on the importance of continued support for coalition efforts, stressing that we are engaged in a war against terrorists, not against a religion. In addition, a letter from President Karzai seeking approval of the donation to assist Afghan security forces might provide the political push to move Silajdzic off the path of Bosnian isolationism. It would certainly provide political cover, if Silajdzic is prepared to take it, from accusations that the U.S. is pushing Bosnia into a war against Muslims. CEFKIN