BOSNIA: SILAJDZIC VOWS TO DEFEAT U.S.-BROKERED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 002782

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR DICARLO, EUR/SCE HOH, FOOKS, STINCHCOMB, OSD
FOR FLORY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA: SILAJDZIC VOWS TO DEFEAT U.S.-BROKERED

REFORM; TIHIC BELIEVES PASSAGE STILL POSSIBLE

Classified By: AMBASSADOR DOUGLAS L. MCELHANEY, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)
.


1. (C) SUMMARY: We met separately October 30 with outgoing
Bosniak Tri-Presidency member and Party of Democratic Action
(SDA) President Sulejman Tihic and Bosniak President-elect
and Party for BiH (SBiH) President Haris Silajdzic. Tihic,
despite eroding party discipline, still asserts SDA party
unity behind the April constitutional reform package, but
when pressed, admits that he would favor re-opening it to
remove the provision on qualified majority (entity) voting in
order to bring SBiH and weak-kneed members of his own party
on board. Silajdzic is trapped in the past, complaining
about how the international community has "failed Bosnia"
since the war and vacillating between starting the process
from scratch or tabling constitutional reform altogether
until a more "appropriate" time. Silajdzic stated explicitly
that if the April package is introduced to parliament in its
current form, he and his party will do everything in their
power to defeat it. END SUMMARY.


Tihic Says SDA Will Vote for Reforms, but Suggests Re-opening
Package
--------------


2. (C) Ambassador met outgoing Bosniak member of the
Tri-Presidency and Party of Democratic Action (SDA) President
Sulejman Tihic to discuss SDA support for the April package
of constitutional changes and next steps on getting the
package passed through the new parliament. According to
Tihic, at the October 27 SDA Presidency meeting, new SDA MPs
expressed unanimous support for constitutional reform. He
added that, although certain new representatives are
ill-informed about the process and may have some
reservations, no member explicitly opposes the reforms.
Tihic predicted continued unanimous support for the package
from his SDA, but noted he would continue to work to shore up
support within the party. To this end he planned to convene
an additional meeting of the SDA presidency to ensure the
party,s full commitment to the process. Despite these
assurances, Tihic was acutely aware of his vulnerability
within SDA. He continued to complain bitterly about the
impact of public criticism against him by Dnevni Avaz
publisher Fahrudin Radoncic. He also raised allegations that
elements of the SBiH and his own SDA are being courted by
unnamed sources in Middle Eastern countries to move away from
a western democratic orientation.


3. (C) Turning to the position of Bosniak President-elect
and Party for BiH (SBiH) President Haris Silajdzic on
constitutional reform, Tihic raised the idea of reopening the
package to remove any reference to qualified majority (i.e.,
entity) voting. Tihic asserted that he was confident
Silajdzic, based on his previous public statements, would
agree to all other portions of the package if the entity
voting reference was removed. Tihic indicated he would speak
directly with Silajdzic to gauge his reaction to this
proposal. Tihic added that he did not believe Serb parties
would contest removing the entity voting language. Tihic
asked that the U.S. and international community, including
OHR, remain committed to the reform process, but said he was
not optimistic the reforms would pass with the entity voting
language. He added that it would not be politically possible
to achieve passage of the amendments through the current
lame-duck parliament.

Silajdzic: Entity Voting Remains a Redline
--------------


4. (C) The Ambassador and High Representative Christian
Schwarz-Schilling met SBiH Bosniak President-elect Haris
Silajdzic on October 30 to discuss next steps on
constitutional reform. Ambassador noted that he hoped this
would be the first in a series of focused discussions on the
issue during which he hoped to be able to address all of
Silajdzic,s concerns with the April package of amendments.
Silajdzic said he was eager to discuss next steps, and that
he believed the U.S. should play the predominant role in
leading the process. Ambassador stressed to Silajdzic
Washington,s keen interest in moving forward expeditiously
with the April package. Schwarz-Schilling emphasized the
package represented a first real step at compromise by all
the parties and Bosnian politicians should not pass up the
opportunity to build on this first phase. Despite his

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endorsement, the High Representative acknowledged,
unhelpfully, that he and other Europeans have some
reservations about what it contains.


5. (C) Silajdzic asserted that the only issue preventing him
from supporting the package was qualified majority (entity)
voting in the State House of Representatives. Silajdzic
noted that he was not opposed to compromise, and would be
prpared to make concessions on other elements of the
package, but he would not relinquish his long-hed opposition
to entity voting. Silajdzic proceeed to deliver a monologue
on how the international community had failed Bosnia since
the war, citig the wartime international arms embargo
against Bosnia and early privatization plans as examples
where his opposition to international community policy had
proved correct. He implied that the agreed package of
amendments was another example of the international community
supporting the wrong thing for Bosnia.


6. (C) Silajdzic went on to describe Phase I of
constitutional reform as in fact "Phase II of the Serb plan
to build a greater Serbia" by further entrenching Republika
Srpska institutions. Guarantees of a second phase of
constitutional reform meant nothing to him, Silajdzic said,
because too many promises had been broken in the past. In
response to the Ambassador's question on his vision for the
reform process, Silajdzic said he did not have a plan to
achieve a compromise among political parties. Rather, he
suggested that the process be tabled until a more appropriate
time. Silajdzic added that if the international community
and parties that supported the April package elected to seek
another vote in parliament, he would fight it all the way,
and urged that the USG not insist on such a confrontation.
In a clear attempt to create divisions between the Ambassador
and the High Representative, Silajdzic said the U.S. had to
be the key actor in any successful constitutional reform, and
characterized his preference for a U.S. lead as the result of
an ineffective and disorganized EU. In response,
Schwarz-Schilling acknowledged EU support for the key role
played by the U.S. in this initial phase, but added that the
EU intends to play a more prominent role in future phases.


7. (C) The Ambassador reminded Silajdzic that the USG has
devoted much time and political capital to the issue of
constitutional reform in Bosnia, and there would be little
patience for abandoning the hard-won package of amendments
and starting the process anew. It was incomprehensible to
Washington and to Bosnia's friends in the U.S. how the
Bosniak parties could oppose this package. He warned that if
the Bosniaks are responsible for the defet of this
U.S.-brokered initiative, Silajdzic would be front and center
as the champion of the status quo. Both the Ambassador and
Schwarz-Schilling urged Silajdzic not to waste the
opportunity before him and emphasized that letting more time
pass before addressing the key obstacles to EU and NATO
integration in the Dayton constitution would be a serious
mistake.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) Although Tihic continues to claim the USG can count on
solid SDA support for the reform package, his extremely
tenuous position within the party--he faces almost daily
calls for his resignation--leaves him in no position to make
these assurances, and SDA party discipline on the issue may
be eroding. Silajdzic, for his part, is seemingly more
willing to engage on the issue than before the elections.
However, he clearly remains convinced he can prevail in his
opposition to the package by creating divisions among the
international community. End Comment.
MCELHANEY