BOSNIA - DAS DICARLO PROBES NEWLY ELECTED BOSNIAK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 002699 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR(DICARLO),EUR/SCE, P (BAME); OSD FOR FLORY; NSC FOR BRAUN E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2011 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA - DAS DICARLO PROBES NEWLY ELECTED BOSNIAK PRESIDENT SILAJDZIC ON CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM Classified By: Ambassador Douglas L. McElhaney. Reason 1.4(b) and d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On October 19 before the Peace Implementation Council (PIC),DAS Rosemary DiCarlo met separately with the outgoing Bosniak member of the Tri-Presidency and leader of the Party for Democratic Action (SDA) Sulejman Tihic; Republika Srpska (RS) PM and leader of the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) Milorad Dodik; and the Tri-Presidency-elect, Haris Silajdzic (Bosniak),Zeljko Komsic (Croat),and Nebojsa Radmanovic (Serb). DiCarlo underscored the importance of constitutional and police reform as well as ICTY cooperation with each of her interlocutors. She also urged Dodik to support the international community's efforts to resolve the Kosovo status issue. Tihic claimed that his party would support the U.S.-brokered package of constitutional reform, despite it electoral setbacks. Dodik underscored that he and the RS-based parties remained committed to it as well. Silajdzic dominated the exchange with the Tri-Presidency, attacking the U.S.-brokered package of constitutional amendments as "worse than Dayton." Komsic and Radmanovic rejected Silajdzic's criticisms as well as his suggestion that the parties should negotiate a new constitution from scratch. END SUMMARY DiCarlo Outlines USG Bosnia Priorities -------------- ¶2. (C) DiCarlo opened her meetings by expressing USG dismay at the level of nationalist rhetoric during the recent election campaign. She chastised Republika Srpska PM Dodik for his regular references to a referendum, bluntly adding that the U.S. would not support and would not allow a referendum. Underscoring their responsibility for governing Bosnia after the OHR's June 2007 departure, DiCarlo urged her interlocutors to implement the reforms required to secure the country's Euro-Atlantic future. Otherwise Bosnia might find itself "left behind" as its neighbors joined NATO and the EU. Secretary Rice expected Bosnia's political leaders to honor their commitment to take the first steps on constitutional reform and adopt as soon as possible the U.S.-brokered package of constitutional amendments, DiCarlo emphasized. Police reform was another crucial post-election challenge, she said. Without it, the EU would not sign a Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) with Bosnia. Finally, Bosnian cooperation with ICTY remained a U.S. priority. Tihic: Optimism Despite Threats to His Leadership -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) In the first meeting, Tihic began by observing that though SDA remained the largest Bosniak party, Silajdzic's election and gains by the Party for BiH (SBiH) at the SDA's expense had prompted several senior SDA members to call for his resignation and weakened support within the party for the U.S.-brokered package of constitutional amendments. Tihic implied that his preference was for his SDA party to form a coalition government with the six parties that supported constitutional reform in April, but he added, that he was under intense pressure from party rank and file to support an SDA-SBiH coalition. Party members opposed joining the pro-constitutional reform Social Democratic Party (SDP) in a coalition, and Dnevni Avaz, Bosnia's largest circulation daily, was waging an incessant campaign in support of an SDA-SBiH alliance. ¶4. (C) Despite his difficult post-election political position, Tihic said the U.S.-brokered package of constitutional amendments "still had a chance." Tihic claimed that all nine SDA MPs would, in the end, support the package, although SBiH would make every effort to sow dissent and he would need U.S. help keeping them on board. He also urged the U.S. to prod the Europeans into more pro-active support for the U.S.-brokered package. Silajdzic uses apparent European indifference as evidence of support for his claim that the package does not meet "European norms," Tihic explained. Tihic also pleaded with the Ambassador to stop the media criticism of the package, particularly the attacks from Dnevni Avaz. If Avaz's anti-constitutional reform media blitz ended, opposition to the U.S.-brokered package would collapse, Tihic predicted. Dodik: I'm Part of the Solution, Not the Problem SARAJEVO 00002699 002 OF 002 -------------- --- ¶5. (C) Dodik stressed that he and his party continue to support the U.S.-brokered package of constitutional amendments. As far as he is concerned, his party would be prepared to adopt the package before a new Council of Ministers (CoM) is in place, though other parties might balk at this approach. He urged the U.S. to remain pro-active on constitutional reform. Without U.S. leadership, the package would not pass, he predicted. Dodik said he was prepared to form a coalition among the pro-constitutinal reform parties, but whether this was possibledepended on Tihic's SDA. If not, his SNSD wouldsimply "distribute the seats within the CoM thatbelonged to the Republika Srpska" and join an ad hc government of shifting coalitions. Regardless, SNSD would not obstruct the formation of a new government, but his party would insist on holding the Chairmanship of the CoM. ¶6. (C) With regard to police reform, Dodik said that he (and the other RS party leaders) would not accept a reform proposal that eliminated the RS police force. To do so would be political suicide, he explained, adding that issues related to efficiency and functionality could be resolved with simple legislative fixes rather than creating new police forces and districts. Responding to DiCarlo's comments on Kosovo, Dodik said that "privately" Kosovo does not interest him. People in the RS are interested, however, and sometimes, as a politician, he would have to comment on it, but he stressed, that he had never linked the RS to Kosovo and never called for RS secession from Bosnia. Dodik said he understood that ultimately Kosovo would be independent, but he urged that the international community find a way to keep the Serbs in Kosovo. He was prepared to urge them not to leave publicly, if that would help, he said. Tri-Presidency: Silajdzic Dominates the Discussion -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Silajdzic dominated DiCarlo's discussion with the Tri-Presidency-elect. He suggested that OHR's summer 2007 departure was premature and strongly criticized the U.S.-brokered package of constitutional amendments. Silajdzic claimed that the amendments agreed to in March were "worse than Dayton" and jeopardized Bosnia's existence. Entity voting remained his party's main objection to the package, but there were others, including language that called for the dissolution of parliament and new elections if the House of Representatives failed to elect a Council of Ministers. The elections had created a new political reality, which Bosnia's political leadership and the international community must accept, he said. The parties should now sit down and negotiate a brand new constitutional for Bosnia. Silajdzic also noted that Bosnian Muslims are increasingly ambivalent towards the U.S. as a result of its policies in BiH and globally. ¶8. (C) Komsic and Radmanovic responded by stressing that their parties, SDP and SNSD respectively, continued to support the package of amendments agreed to in March. They underscored that the package as a whole was not acceptable to any party, but that it represented a series of hard fought compromises. The parliament should adopt it before beginning discussions on phase two of constitutional reform. Radmanovic added that his party would not accept opening up the already agreed package in order to eliminate entity voting, as Silajdzic had proposed. Komsic and Radmanovic explained that there was a "collective frustration" among Bosnians that ICTY indictees Karadzic and Mladic had not been arrested and transferred to The Hague. Each hoped that this would happen soon so the country could put this issue behind it. ¶9. (U) DAS Rosemary DiCarlo cleared this message. MCELHANEY