BOSNIA - FINAL 2006 ELECTION RESULTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 002569 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE; NSC FOR BRAUN; OSD FOR FLORY E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2015 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA - FINAL 2006 ELECTION RESULTS Classified By: DCM Judith Cefkin. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: This afternoon the Central Election Commission (CEC) provided us with an advance copy of the final election results, which they made public at a 1700 press conference in Sarajevo. The results are in line with our earlier assessments based on partial results the CEC had released sporadically over the last two weeks. Most importantly, the parties that supported the U.S.-brokered package of constitutional reforms will hold a 2/3 majority in the State-level House of Representatives. The new House will include only 11 returning MPs, however. In the Federation, Haris Silajdzic's Party for BiH did better than expected and the Croat prefixed parties saw their total number of seats decline. In the Republika Srpska (RS),RS PM Dodik's party, the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD),came within hair's breath of winning an outright majority. Bosniak parties saw a dramatic decline in the number of seats they hold in the RS National Assembly. END SUMMARY State-level House of Representatives -------------- ¶2. (U) The seat distribution for the 42-member State-level House of Representatives (HoR) is as follows (Note: The number in parentheses indicates the net gain or loss of seats compared to the 2002 elections. End Note): -- Party of Democratic Action (SDA): 9 (-1) -- Party for BiH (SBiH): 8 ( 2) -- Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD): 7 ( 4) -- Social Democratic Party (SDP): 5 ( 2) -- Serb Democratic Party (SDS): 3 (-2) -- Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia-Herzegovina (HDZ): 3 (-2) -- HDZ-1990: 2 (new) -- Party for Democratic Progress (PDP): 1 (even) -- National Party for Work and Progress (Za Boljitak or RzB): 1 (new) -- Democratic National Union (DNZ): 1 (even) -- Bosnian Patriotic Party-Sefer Halilovic (BPS): 1 (new) -- National Democratic Party (DNS): 1 (new) State-level Politics Initial Observations -------------- ¶3. (C) The parties that supported the U.S.-brokered package of constitutional amendments (i.e., SDA, SNSD, SDP, SDS, and HDZ) hold 28 seats, precisely the 2/3 required to pass the package. -- (C) That said, SDA's commitment to the package is in doubt. Party members are panicked by SBiH Haris Silajdzic's trouncing of SDA Sulejman Tihic in the race for the Bosniak member of the Tri-Presidency, which they read as a vote against the package by Bosniaks. -- (C) SDA remains the largest Bosniak party. The SDA and SDP legislative vote combined is 369,000, well above SBiH's 196,000. This undercuts SBiH's claim that it has a mandate to reject the U.S.-brokered constitutional reform package, a point we will emphasize to wavering SDA MPs. -- (C) Only 11 of the 42 members of the new HoR served in the old HoR, which means many of them, despite their party's position on constitutional reform, will be voting on the package for the first time. This presents both opportunities and risks for us as we work to solidify support for the U.S.-brokered package. Federation House of Representatives -------------- ¶4. (U) The seat distribution for the 98-member Federation House of Representatives (FHoR) is as follows. (Note: The number in parentheses indicates the net gain or loss of seats compared to the 2002 elections. End Note) -- SDA: 28 (-4) -- SBiH: 24 ( 9) -- SDP: 17 ( 2) -- HDZ: 8 (-8) -- HDZ-1990: 7 ( 7) -- BPS: 4 (new) SARAJEVO 00002569 002 OF 002 -- RzB: 3 (new) -- Patriotic Blok (Bosnian Party (BOSS) - Social Democratic Union (SDU) Coalition): 3 (even) -- DNZ: 2 (even) -- Croatian Party of Rights-Djapic-Jurisic (HSP-D/J)/New Croat Initiative (NHI) Coalition: 1 (-2) -- SNSD: 1 (even) Federation Politics: Initial Observations -------------- ¶5. (C) In comparison with the previous Federation HoR, there was a dramatic reduction in the number of parties represented, down from 18 parties to 11. -- (C) The 22 seats previously held by Croat-prefixed parties (16 were HDZ alone) now have been reduced to 16 overall and is almost evenly split between the two HDZ's. The reduction in the number of Croat seats may reflect a decreasing Croat population. -- (C) The strong showing by SBiH is surprising, considering that Silajdzic was not considered to have long coattails prior to the election. Better organization and more money spent in the provinces appear to have paid dividends for the party. Republika Srpska National Assembly -------------- ¶6. (U) The seat distribution for the 83-seat Republika Srpska National Assembly (RSNA) is as follows (Note: The number in parentheses indicates the net gain or loss of seats compared to the 2002 elections. End Note): -- SNSD: 41 ( 23) -- SDS: 18 (-26) -- PDP: 7 (-2) -- DNS: 4 (new) -- SBiH: 4 (even) -- Serb Radical Party (SRS-RS): 2 (-1) -- Socialist Party (SP): 3 (even) -- SDA: 3 (-3) -- SDP: 1 (-2) Republika Srpska Politics: Initial Observations -------------- -- ¶7. (C) The big story in the RSNA, as we expected, was the huge victory by RS PM Dodik's SNSD. The party did nt achieve the absolute majority it would have lied, but it came within a hair's breadth of doingso, and will be able to form a government withou Dragan Cavic's previously dominant SDS. -- () The new three percent threshold rules had the biggest impact in the RS. The number of parties represented in the RSNA is down from 17 to 9. Previously, there were eight parties with one seat apiece, which made forming a voting coalition much more complex. -- (C) The SDS's poor showing has already prompted internal wrangling about blame with some focusing their attention on party leader Cavic. Cavic, the SDS's losing candidate for the RS Presidency, will defend himself by pointing out that he outpolled his party. -- (C) There was a dramatic drop in the representation from Bosniak parties in the RSNA (from 13 to 8),but it was not as dire as some had predicted while waiting for final results. Nonetheless, we expect this outcome to become a significant post-election story line. MCELHANEY