BOSNIAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS: SILAJDZIC LOOKS TO BE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 002329

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS: SILAJDZIC LOOKS TO BE
A WINNER

REF: A. SARAJEVO 2307


B. SARAJEVO 2279

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Summary
--------------


1. (U) Citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina October 1 went to
the polls to elect members of the three-member Presidency,
and members of State and local legislatures. CEC preliminary
tallies at midnight declared Haris Silajdzic (Party for
Bosnia and Herzegovina (SBiH)) winner of the Bosniak
Presidency with 38.13 percent of the Bosniak vote, and
Nebojsa Radmanovic (Alliance of Independent Social Democrats
(SNSD)) the winner of the Serb Presidency by a landslide
65.23 percent. At midnight, the race for the Croat
Presidency was too close to call, with the two leading
candidates Ivo Miro Jovic (Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ))
and Zeljko Komsic (Social Democratic Party (SDP)) separated
by 0.4 of a percentage point with a large portion of the vote
left to count. Small numbers of voters across the country
encountered problems resulting from a new voter registration
system but misunderstandings seemed to have been managed well
by poll workers. Final but unofficial results will be
released at noon on October 2 (0600 Washington time). End
Summary.


2. (U) Elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina proceeded smoothly
and relatively uneventfully under a clear blue sky over the
course of October 1. Polling was well organized and,
according to preliminary Central Election Commission (CEC)
figures, voter turnout was up, in absolute terms, from
previous elections with an national turnout rate of 52.74
percent. Polling stations opened on schedule at 0700. The
Embassy dispatched ten teams composed of emboffs and FSNs to
monitor developments throughout the country.

Results
--------------


3. (U) As expected, heavy turnout in the Republika Srpska
(RS) cemented the front-runner position of Milorad Dodik and
his SNSD on all electoral levels. The 65.25 percent of the
Serb presidency vote declared for Serb Presidency candidate
Neboja Radmanovic exceeded the expectations of even the most
enthusiastic pre-election SNSD commentators. All indications
suggest that the SNSD will fare similarly well in legislative
elections.


4. (U) Haris Silajdzic was declared the winner of the Bosniak
Presidency at midnight. Although significant numbers of
votes in areas such as Sarajevo and Tuzla had yet to be
counted, Silajdzic,s 38.13 percent appeared unassailable
with his closest competitor, incumbent SDA President Sulejman
Tihic, achieving only 18.12 percent. Tallies for the Croat
Presidency remain neck and neck with Komsic and Jovic
separated by less than half a percentage point for most of
the evening. Although significant percentages of the votes
in SDP strongholds of Tuzla and Sarajevo cantons are yet to
be officially tallied, the race remains too close to call at
0300 Washington time. The CEC has not yet released
preliminary results for legislative elections. Anecdotal
evidence suggests the SNSD will ride the presidential
landslide to a strong showing in State Parliament and the RS
National Assembly. SDP spokespersons have asserted that the
party fared particularly well in legislative elections
predicting party representation will double in State
Parliament to six seats.

Turnout
--------------


5. (U) Voter turnout was high during the course of the
morning and early afternoon but slowed as the day went on.
Certain precincts in metropolitan Sarajevo were reporting
ballot shortages due to high turnout. A preliminary trend
early suggesting voting was particularly heavy in the RS,
especially in the eastern part of the entity, was borne out
by subsequent CEC figures. Early turnout figures in the
Croat heartland of Western Herzegovina were noticeably lower
in the morning, although they appeared to pull even with the
national average over the course of the afternoon. The
general impression of our teams was that youth voters were
more active than in the past. CEC turnout rates released at
midnight on October 1 indicated voter turnout rates were
56.06 percent in the Republika Srpska (RS),and 51.13 percent
in the Federation, with an overall national turnout rate of
52.74 percent. Although the 2002 voter turnout rate was 55
percent, the subsequent registration of 400,000 new voters
means the current figures represent an increase in voter

SARAJEVO 00002329 002.2 OF 002


participation in real terms.

Voter Registration Problems
--------------


6. (U) Across the country the new passive voter registration
system caused widespread, but manageable, confusion. Under
the new Citizen Identification Protection System (CIPS),
individuals were automatically registered to vote where they
applied for a new national identity card. Although the CEC
website maintained a guide to polling stations, we heard many
reports that the information was incorrect and directed
voters, including at least one mission FSN, to the wrong
polling places. While a referral mechanism set up at polling
stations by the CEC and various NGOs seemed to work well, the
confusion often resulted in voters having to travel some
distance and visit several polling stations before being able
to cast their ballots.


7. (U) This problem created an extra layer of controversy in
Brcko District where voters may choose to vote in either the
Federation or the RS and were automatically registered in the
entity where they voted in the 2002 national elections. The
Embassy team in Brcko encountered a number of confused and
angry voters at the polls who did not understand why they
were registered in a certain entity. For example, emboffs
spoke with Semso Sakovic, Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina
(SBiH) candidate for State House of Representatives, at his
polling station where he discovered he was registered to vote
in the RS and therefore unable to vote for himself. The
problem was compounded in rural areas.

Looking Ahead
--------------


8. (U) Results in the RS, while dramatic, were not
unexpected with many pre-election commentators predicting
that the popularity of RS PM Milorad Dodik would carry his
SNSD to a sweep of the polls. Although the race among
Bosniak parties was very close over the campaign season, the
win by Haris Silajdzic was also presaged by incumbent
President Sulejman Tihic's sagging popularity throughout the
fall. However, as reported reftels, the results of the race
for the Croat Presidency could have major implications for
coalition bulding and the role of the Croat people in the
national political debate.


MCELHANEY