BOSNIA - OPERATION STORM STIRS UP A TEMPEST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SARAJEVO 001852 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR (DICARLO),S/WCI, EUR/SCE; NSC FOR BRAUN; USNIC FOR WEBER; OSD FOR FLORY E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2011 TAGS: KAWC KJUS PGOV PINR PREL SUBJECT: BOSNIA - OPERATION STORM STIRS UP A TEMPEST Classified By: DCM Judith Cefkin. Reason 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: The airing of two videos allegedly documenting war crimes committed against Serbs during Operation Storm in 1995 has set off a political firestorm in Bosnia. The intensity of the political firestorm has been fueled in part by Serb accusations against a prominent Bosniak war hero, General Atif Dudakovic. According to the State Prosecutor's office neither video constitutes prima fascia evidence of war crime, but both are being investigated. Sarajevo prosecutors are cooperating with their counterparts in Zagreb and Belgrade with the investigations. In a meeting with us, the State Prosecutor's office stressed that it would take time to build solid criminal cases sufficient to justify an indictment. In the meantime, the PIC Ambassadors have issued a statement calling on politicians to cool down their rhetoric, which is inflaming an already tense pre-election environment. END SUMMARY Operation Storm Becomes A Political Storm -------------- ¶2. (C) On August 11, we met with international lawyers from the State Prosecutor's office to discuss the political and media battle surrounding two videos that allegedly show war crimes committed against Serbs during Operation Storm, the 1995 joint offensive by the Croatian Army and the Army of Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Army of BiH) designed to liberate Krajina as well as relieve Serb pressure on the Bihac pocket. Footage from the first video, which initially aired in Belgrade on August 5, but was subsequently and widely picked up by Bosnian media outlets, shows a dead Serb solider, allegedly executed. The second, aired later in the week, shows a popular Bosniak war hero, General Atif Dudakovic, waiving his arms and apparently ordering the burning of Serb villages. ¶3. (C) Politicians began commenting on the videos immediately. Serbs sought to equate these videos with the "Scorpion video" released earlier in the year, which showed Serb paramilitaries executing Bosniaks during the 1995 Srebrenica massacre. They also attacked the international community and Bosniaks for failing to prosecute war crimes committed against Serbs. Bosniaks responded by accusing Serbs of seeking to blur the distinction between victims and aggressors and denying that the videos were evidence of war crimes in the first place. ¶4. (C) The rhetoric really heated up after the Dudakovic video became public. Republika Srpska (RS) Premier Dodik and RS President Cavic announced on August 10 that they planned to file a report with the BiH State Prosecutor, Croatian State Prosecutor and Serbian State Prosecutor accusing former Bosnian General of war crimes. (Note: Under BiH law any citizen may file a report of criminal activity with the State Prosecutor's office. End Note). President Tihic, a Bosniak, accused Dodik and Cavic of using the case as a political weapon and attacked them for their selective approach to support for war crimes prosecution (i.e., their failure as RS leaders to ensure full RS cooperation in the hunt for Mladic and Karadzic). Video One - The Executed Serb -------------- ¶5. (C/NF) The State Prosecutor's office tells us that it has been investigating the alleged war crimes committed on the first video for more than two months, and that they are cooperating with Zagreb and Belgrade prosecutors. Though media attention has focused on images that show the body of an allegedly executed Serb soldier, the State Prosecutor is looking into five episodes on the video, all related to Operation Storm. These include (in shorthand): -- The alleged execution of a Serb soldier (o/a 15 September 1995); -- The alleged execution of four Serb soldiers (o/a 5 August 1995); -- The desecration of a Serb Orthodox Church (o/a 15 or 16 August 1995); -- The interrogation of an old man, who may have been subsequently executed (o/a 13 or 14 August 1995); and, -- The "celebratory" dragging by a tractor of an already deceased old man or soldier (the timing of the episode is unclear). ¶6. (C/NF) The episodes, not all of which have aired in the media, are part of a larger video production most likely compiled by Serbs to prove that they, too, were victims of war crimes. According to the State Prosecutor's office, the Army of BiH or groups associated with it took the original footage, perhaps to promote the mujahadeen, who fought with the Army of BiH in Bihac. The State Prosecutor's office notes that the version of the video in its possession contains Arabic script as well as Cyrillic added by the Serbs. It also notes that the one identifiable figure in the video is Abdul al Harby Twafik (Tuwfik),a former mujahadeen who lived in Bihac until 2001, but has since returned to Saudi Arabia. ¶7. (C/NF) The State Prosecutor's office told us that despite images suggesting crimes had been committed, it will be difficult to build successful war crimes cases based on the video alone. Unlike the "Scorpion video", which showed clearly identifiable people committing a clearly identifiable crime, this video shows only the outcome of alleged criminal acts. For example, the video shows the Serb soldiers dead, but not their actual executions and does not show who was present at the time. Nor is the audio as clear as print reports have implied. Much more time is required to identify suspects and gather evidence before any indictments are handed down, the State Prosecutor's office said. Video Two - General Dudakovic -------------- ¶8. (C/NF) The State Prosecutor's office believes that the prima fascia case against General Dudakovic is stronger. The video, which the State Prosecutor's office only received on August 9, is not the clear evidence of a war crime that some politicians and media outlets claim, however. A good defense lawyer could easily provide a credible explanation for Dudakovic's alleged order to burn Serb villages, the State Prosecutor's office explained. For example, a defense attorney could claim that "burn" was slang for attack or shell villages where enemy troops were concentrated, and not a literal order to burn villages. Prosecutors must determine some basic facts, such as what villages (if any) were burned, before bringing an indictment against Dudakovic, and this, the international prosecutors explained, would take time. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) The State Prosecutor's office is concerned that the political and media rhetoric about the Operation Storm videos is only the beginning of an ethnic publicity war over war crimes. There are plenty of groups on all three sides of the ethnic divide who have war crimes claims, and the videos may encourage them to come forward. Prosecutors also worry that the young, still inexperienced, State Court and Prosecutor's office may not be strong enough to withstand six more weeks along lines of the one that just past. There is little doubt that the politicians are playing to their respective galleries with their comments on the videos, and that this is further poisoning an already unhealthy election year atmosphere. Late today, the PIC Ambassadors released a statement urging politicians to cool it, but with electoral dynamic likely to drive political behavior for the next six weeks, this is likely a message that will bear repeating, assuming it is heard at all. MCELHANEY