RS PREMIER DODIK MUSES ON SERBIAN AND BIH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 001776 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR (DICARLO),EUR/SCE (FOOKS, MITCHELL),L/EUR (K. JOHNSON),D (SMITH),P (BAME),S/WCI (WILLIAMSON, BERG),INR (BRAUM),USUN (WILLSON),THE HAGUE (SCHLIDGE, C. JOHNSON),ZAGREB (SELINGER),BELGRADE (CAMPBELL),NSC FOR BRAUN, USNIC FOR BOALS, OSD FOR FLORY E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/06/2011 TAGS: UNMIK ICTY KAWC PGOV PREL AL YI BK SUBJECT: RS PREMIER DODIK MUSES ON SERBIAN AND BIH POLITICS, CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM REF: SARAJEVO 1773 Classified By: DCM Judith B. Cefkin. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: On the margins of July 28 discussions with RS Prime Minister Milorad Dodik on ICTY cooperation (REFTEL), Ambassador-at-Large for War Crimes Issues Clint Williamson and CDA Cefkin also raised Kosovo and asked about the upcoming Bosnian elections. According to Dodik, the Serbian public had been relieved to see Montenegro gain its independence, and Serbs already regarded Kosovo as a separate state. Dodik said polling for the October elections showed his SNSD party ahead in the RS, but Bosniak parties in the Federation were running in a dead heat. His priority was to form a stable coalition government with the SDP quickly and move on substantive issues like constitutional reform. End summary. ¶2. (C) Dodik said his contacts in Serbia believe the Serbian public already feels as if Kosovo was a separate state. Furthermore, when the Serbian President can be elected with as few as 1.5 million votes, the average Serb does not want two million Albanians living in Kosovo determining who that is. Nevertheless, no Serbian politician believed he could afford to accept Kosovo's secession. Kostunica thinks the transfer of PIFWCs, particularly Mladic, to the ICTY will improve Serbia's standing among the international community, and consequently strengthen its bargaining position on the final status of Kosovo. Dodik cautioned Ambassador Williamson that it would be a mistake for the international community to offer Serbia EU and NATO membership as the trade-off for ceding Kosovo. He said it should not appear as if Serbia had received compensation for 'selling' Kosovo. ¶3. (C) Dodik said his contacts in Serbia are also concerned about the strength of the Serbian Radical Party. He asserted that only the blindest Radical Party supporters would give a second thought to Radical Party VP Toma Nikolic's recent calls for Serbs to take up arms and defend Kosovo. Rather than feeling vulnerable because of the Montenegrin independence referendum, the public is actually relieved to finally have the question settled. He suggested the same mood could be detected with regard to Kosovo. ¶4. (C) Dodik said the election campaign in BiH had already started. He noted that reliable USG-funded polling data showed his SNSD was the frontrunner in the RS. Dodik said that the same data showed a convoluted situation in the Federation. Dodik said it looked as if BiH Tri-Presidency Chairman Sulijman Tihic's Party for Democratic Action (SDA), Zlatko Lagumdzija's Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Haris Silajdzic's Party for BiH (SBiH) had even chances of winning. He feared that the SDP was losing votes because of its leader's ego. ¶5. (C) Dodik said his party would still like to form a coalition with the Social Democratic Party (SDP),if it has the numbers in Parliament to do so. He stressed that the priority was to have a stable government as soon as possible after the election, so the government could move on to important substantive issues, such as constitutional change. Dodik said that all parties had "compromised" themselves a bit to reach agreement on constitutional reforms, and all faced some flak from supporters because of that. Dodik feared pressure from Silajdzic, candidate for the Bosniak seat in the Tri-Presidency, could lead Tihic to be the first to step away from the agreement. Dodik said that while there were some painful portions for the RS, all in all it was a good agreement and he would stand by it. ¶6. (C) Comment: Dodik's comments on Serbian reaction to Montenegro and his predictions on Kosovo may be accurate, or he may simply saying what he things his American interlocutors what to hear. It is notable that Dodik did not SARAJEVO 00001776 002 OF 002 mention a possible RS independence referendum. Dodik's assessment of Tihic's propensity to cave to pressure from Silajzdic on constitutional reform is accurate, and we will need to work hard to keep Tihic and the SDA on board with continuing reforms after the elections, especially if he loses his Tri-Presidency seat. MCELHANEY