BOSNIA: RS POLITICIANS SHARPLY REJECT SANADER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SARAJEVO 001762 SIPDIS SIPDIS EUR (DICARLO),D (SMITH),P (BAME),EUR/SCE (HOH, SAINZ, FOOKS),NSC FOR BRAUN, USNIC FOR WEBER, GREGORIAN, OSD FOR FLORY E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV HR BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA: RS POLITICIANS SHARPLY REJECT SANADER INITIATIVE ON FUTURE OF BIH Classified By: DCM Judith B. Cefkin, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (U) In the media August 2 and 3, Serb member of the BiH Tri-Presidency Borislav Paravac and Republika Srpska (RS) President Dragan Cavic sharply and publicly rejected Croatian Prime Minister Ivo Sanader's proposal that Croatia host an international conference on the future of BiH. Paravac implied that the Sanader initiative was concocted at the behest of Bosnian Croats and constituted pre-election politicking, adding it proved that certain parties (i.e., Croatia, on behalf of Bosnian Croats) to the Dayton Peace Agreement had never been satisfied with the outcome and were trying to revisit it in order to gain more for their constituents. Paravac noted that the real problem was not Sanader, but rather domestic politicians such as BiH Prime Minister Adnan Terzic seeking foreign intervention on domestic issues. Terzic's worries about the departure of the Office of the High Representative (OHR) next year were what led to this initiative, Paravac opined. ¶2. (U) Cavic's criticism of Sanader was even harsher. He warned Sanader that "meddling" by Croatia in the domestic affairs of BiH could provoke chaos that would inevitably spill over into Bosnia's neighbors. Cavic added that the timing of the initiative was particularly telling, as Sanader was seeking to revisit the status of Croats in Bosnia. (Note: The announcement of the Sanader initiative came within days of the anniversary of Operation Storm in Croatia, often cited by Serbs as an operation to ethnically cleanse areas of Croatia populated by Serbs. End Note.) Cavic added that if Croats wanted to reopen the issue of the status of Croats in Bosnia, Sanader should expect a similar revisitation of the status of Serbs in Croatia. ¶3. (C) COMMENT: It is tempting to chalk up the comments of Paravac and Cavic to pre-election politicking, but something more may be at work. Media reports assert that High Rep Schwarz-Schilling supports the Sanader proposal. In fact, the High Rep said that while regional conferences can be valuable, the issue of the constitutional structure of BiH was settled at Dayton, and any future changes can only be made through finding consensus among domestic political parties. If international actors do jump onto the Sanader bandwagon (or if the BiH media reports they have),this is likely to mix unhelpfully in the pre-election debate, complicating a successful return to the U.S.-supported constitutional reform process after the elections. END COMMENT. MCELHANEY