BOSNIA: COUNCIL OF EUROPE PARLIAMENTARY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 001479 SIPDIS SIPDIS EUR (DICARLO),D (SMITH),P (BAME),EUR/SCE (ENGLISH, SAINZ, FOOKS),NSC FOR BRAUN, USNIC FOR WEBER, GREGORIAN, OSD FOR FLORY E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA: COUNCIL OF EUROPE PARLIAMENTARY RESOLUTION PROVOKES FIERY PRE-ELECTION RHETORIC ON BOTH SIDES OF THE INTER-ETHNIC BOUNDARY LINE Classified By: AMBASSADOR DOUGLAS MCELHANEY, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (U) This is an action request. Please see paragraph 7. ¶2. (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe's (PACE) June 29 resolution on Bosnian Constitutional reform has been topic number one on the minds of BiH politicians, and has dominated the media here. In addition to a host of factual errors, the resolution takes a position contrary to the legal finding of the Venice Commission on the legislative package proposed in April. It further appears to undermine the common position of the U.S., EU member states and EU/EC leadership of supporting the constitutional amendments agreed by the parties in March. While the resolution (and the memorandum by the PACE rapporteurs attached to it),expresses regret over the failure to pass the constitutional reforms in April, but invites controversy because it provides a prescription for future negotiations on constitutional reform, calling, among other things, for the abolition of qualified majority voting (otherwise know as entity voting) in the BiH House of Representatives and a review of the entity structure of the country created by the Dayton constitution. Politicians on both sides of the political divide have been active in the press, with Federation politicians voicing unanimous support (although with varying degrees of enthusiasm) and RS politicians expressing outrage and predicting doom for the state of BiH if the PACE resolution is accepted as the model for proceeding with constitutional reform. ¶3. (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT, CONT. The man believed by most to be behind the tabling of the resolution, SBiH President Haris Silajdzic, who, for his own political benefit, has been working since January to find a forum in the U.S. or Europe to air his objections to the U.S.-brokered consitutional reform package. He has finally found a willing partner in the Council of Europe Parliament. Silajdzic has been sitting back this week, watching the firestorm from the sidelines and allowing others to speak for him. Given the jarring effect the resolution has had on the already-tense Bosnian pre-election political climate, and the lack of understanding in Bosnia about the real role and relative influence of the Council of Europe, we believe it would be valuable to approach key EU members who were particularly active in supporting the constitutional reform package rejected in April, asking that they reiterate support for the constitutional reform effort in order to dilute the deleterious effect of the PACE resolution. Further, we should alert the Europeans to the possibility that this issue may be raised in other European bodies, like the European Parliament, further poisoning the BiH political environment and the prospects for continuing with our key policy goal to move forward with constitutional reform after national elections here. END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. ¶4. (C) The BiH press has been dominated this week by the uproar over a draft resolution on Bosnian Consitutional Reform in the Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly (PACE) (the resolution passed June 29 by a vote of 53 to 28). Muslim-Croat Federation politicians unanimously lauded the resolution, saying it provided "excellent advice" to BiH authorities for proceeding with consitutional reform. Nijaz Durakovic of SDU, a marginal political figure at the best of times, but speaking with newfound authority because of his alliance with Silajdzic's SBiH against the package of reforms defeated in April, positively gloated in the press, saying that he and the others who voted against the reforms had been fully vindicated. ¶5. (C) Silajdzic himself has been lobbying tirelessly (and until now, in vain) in Europe and the U.S. since January to find a forum and an international voice to echo and validate his objections to the constitutional reform process, and finally found a willing partner in the PACE. In fact, Silajdzic is the only politician singled out in the footnotes of the report by the PACE rapporteurs attached to the resolution as having influenced the opinion of the rapporteurs. Silajdzic's motives for wanting to defeat the package defeated in April are twofold: first, he was looking for an issue that would allow him to re-enter Bosnian politics in opposition to current Tri-Presidency member and President of the Bosniak-nationalist SDA; and second, to ensure that if he wins the presidency in October, the powers SARAJEVO 00001479 002 OF 002 will not have been reduced (as was proposed in the April package of amendments). Silajdzic has been silent in the press this week, sitting back and allowing others to do the work for him. ¶6. (C) RS politicians have been especially forceful in their condemnation of the resolution, predicting doom for the state of BiH if the resolution is used as a basis for continuing the consitutional reform process. RS President Dragan Cavic noted that an attack on the Dayton structure of BiH would undermine the peace and security built on that foundation over the last ten years. RS Prime Minister Dodik went a step further, saying that if Dayton (and the RS) were undermined, the people of the RS would have "no choice" but to consider secession from BiH. After more than two weeks of slowly dwindling stories about a possible RS independence referendum, the PACE resolution (and Dodik's comments) have ensured it will be a prominent public issue once again. The re-emergence of the specter of the referendum is tailor-made for Silajdzic and the parties who opposed the consitutional reform package in April, helping them to "prove" that the RS never had any intention of proceeding with real reform, and stoking fear within the Bosniak community -- a message that will resonate especially well in Bosniak-minority areas of the country. ¶7. (C) Action request: We think it would be valuable to approach key EU members, particularly the UK, France, Germany, Austria, Italy and Finland (current EU President), who were active in supporting the constitutional reform package rejected in April to reiterate support for the process in an attempt to dilute the deleterious effect of the PACE resolution. The Ambassador has used the points in para 7 in his interactions with the press on this subject. ¶8. (U) BEGIN TALKING POINTS: -- The resolution passed June 29 in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) has been used to step up nationalist rhetoric in advance of the October national elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina. -- Bosnia and Herzegovina has many friends in the International Community, and all of us will assist in the reforms necessary to create a modern, functional state, prepared for membership in Euro-Atlantic institutions. -- As we have said all along, the process of constitutional reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina must be consensus-driven. We can all make recommendations on how to amend the constitutio, and such advice will come from mamu sides, but the way forward must be determined by the people of this country and their leaders. -- Certainly, the road to consensus is a bumpy one. But there is simply no other way -- the international community cannot and will not impose a constitution, nor can it force consensus. -- We applaud the commitment and courage of the parties who negotiaed, compromised, and found that kind of consensus. the Steering Board of the PIC last week spoke clearly on this subject -- the PIC "expressed disappointment over the (BiH) Parliamentary Assembly's failure to adopt amendments to the constitution following sustained and constructive talks during the past year." -- I'm gratified that the first real effort at real constitutional reform met such universal support in the international community. As the PIC noted last week, Bosnia and Herzegovina's leaders will have continued support from the international community in this endeavor as they continue the process after the October elections. END TALKING POINTS. MCELHANEY