SUBJECT: BOSNIA: CAVIC HINTS ON SDS CANDIDATES,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 001276 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR (DICARLO),D (SMITH),P (BAME),EUR/SCE (ENGLISH, SAINZ, FOOKS),NSC FOR BRAUN, USNIC FOR WEBER, GREGORIAN, OSD FOR FLORY E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL BK SUBJECT: SUBJECT: BOSNIA: CAVIC HINTS ON SDS CANDIDATES, PLANS FOR 2006 ELECTIONS Classified By: AMBASSADOR DOUGLAS MCELHANEY, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) Summary: Republika Srpska (RS) President Dragan Cavic told Embassy May 30 that he will likely again be the candidate of the Serb Democratic Party (SDS) for the post of RS President in BiH general elections scheduled for October ¶2006. (The SDS, whose founder was Radovan Karadzic, has been sanctioned by the U.S. for non-cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal in The Hague.) According to Cavic, this decision, as well as the SDS lists for other offices, would be confirmed by a vote of the SDS Main Board in late June. Cavic also provided insight into probable party choices for candidates at the national level. None of the choices pose an insuperable obstacle to U.S. policy goals in Bosnia -- though the possible tapping of former RS Interior Minister Matijasevic for SDS candidate to the BiH Tri-Presidency would leave us with a canny player at national level whose objectives are usually neither transparent nor progressive. End Summary Possible SDS Candidates for BiH Presidency, Parliament ¶2. (C) Commenting on possible SDS candidates for offices at BiH level, Cavic told Banja Luka branch office chief that the party had two options for the RS member of the BiH Tri-Presidency: SDS Deputy President Mladen Bosic and former RS Minister of Interior Darko Matijasevic. As Cavic characterized them, both possible candidates were young, talented English speakers with international experience, but each has particular strengths and weaknesses. Cavic felt that Bosic's profile within SDS would make his candidacy an easy sell to party organs. Matijasevic is not a card-carrying member of the SDS, Cavic pointed out, and might face some opposition from the party faithful. (Note: Matijasevic served as RS Interior Minister from 2005-2006; as such, he helped deliver several indictees to the International Criminal Tribunal in The Hague, but also stood solidly in the way of police reform. Matijasevic was taken on by Cavic as a personal advisor -- reportedly to continue ICTY related work -- after the Dodik government came in and he was forced to resign as Minister.) Despite his lack of affiliation with the party, Cavic felt, if Matijasevic were to run, his candidacy would be supported by other RS parties, like the Serbian Radical Party of Republika Srpska (SRS-RS), as well as former RS Minister of Finance Svetlana Cenic's Democratic Movement of Srpska (DEPOS). ¶3. (C) On other campaign issues, Cavic said that SDS would run slates of candidates for the first time in the Federation (FBiH) and was committed to running a serious slate of candidates for the BiH Parliamentary Assembly. According to Cavic, the SDS slate for the BiH Parliamentary Assembly House of Representatives (HoR) would most likely be led by current BiH HoR SDS Caucus Chair Momcilo Novakovic, BiH HoR MP Ljiljana Milicevic and current BiH House of Peoples Delegate Bosko Siljegovic. Cavic said that he was most concerned that, after the elections, SDS be represented by MPs and other office holders who would support and implement the party's decisions on important issues. Cavic maintained that the current situation, where 4 out of 26 SDS MPs in the RS National Assembly publicly flouted party positions, was dangerous and could not be repeated. ¶4. (C) Cavic said he was pleased with SDS progress in election planning; it had formed a campaign committee which met on a weekly basis and had added some important new leaders. Cavic was particularly pleased with the addition of the former SRS-RS leader Ognjen Tadic and former RS Minister of Defense Milovan Stankovic (a Cavic loyalist who has been floating through the RS bureaucracy since the dissolution of his Ministry as a result of defense reform). According to Cavic, Tadic would serve as SDS Campaign Spokesman, while Stankovic would act as both a political advisor and would serve on the party's executive board. Comment ¶5. (C) The candidates Cavic mentioned as possible SDS standard bearers for the BiH House of Representatives have all played constructive roles in important reform legislation.Novakovic and Milicevic offered important support during the recent parliamentary debate on constitutional reform, while Siljegovic played a similar role in the BiH House of Peoples on defense reform. The nomination of either SARAJEVO 00001276 002 OF 002 of the men Cavic mentioned as possible SDS candidates for the BiH Tri-Presidency would help Cavic consolidate his strengthened position in SDS and in the wider RS political scene. This is most clear in Bosic's case, since he is a Cavic protege. The Matijasevic candidacy on the SDS ticket would be a different kind of victory for Cavic: he would have avoided a clash with a young, ambitious, potential rival, while at the same time insulating SDS from attacks from the right. ¶6. (C) A Matijasevic presence on the Tri-Presidency -- especially if joined there by ethnic nationalists from the Bosniak and/or Croat camps -- could be problematic, creating a mutually reinforcing bastion of hardline obstructionism in the institution of the Presidency. Also likely, if Matijasevic runs, is an escalation of campaign rhetoric between those who support rigorous police reform and those, symbolized by Matijasevic himself, who want no part of it. Whatever the outcome, we will be watching carefully to determine whether Cavic -- often the most cooperative Serb during the constitutional reform negotiations -- continues his attempts to move the SDS away from its nationalist and obstructionist power base. END COMMENT. MCELHANEY