BOSNIA: MUTED REACTION TO MONTENEGRO REFERENDUM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SARAJEVO 001194 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR D (SMITH),P (BAME),EUR (DICARLO),EUR/SCE (ENGLISH, FOOKS, MITCHELL, SAINZ),NSC FOR BRAUN, OSD FOR FLORY, USNIC FOR WEBER AND GREGORIAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA: MUTED REACTION TO MONTENEGRO REFERENDUM Classified By: Ambassador Douglas McElhaney for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Initial reactions by BiH politicians to the results of the Montenegrin independence referendum, announced May 23, have been largely positive and calm in both entities. As Montenegro was one of the six quasi-autonomous constituent republics of the former Yugoslavia, virtually all commentators felt that its citizens had the legal right to choose independence--in contrast with the people of Kosovo and the RS, which are and were parts of former republics. Concerns that some political leaders in the Republika Srpska (RS) might be inspired to renew calls for an "independent" RS appear to be unfounded; RS leaders consider Kosovo a much closer analogy to their situation and will be watching the negotiations there closely. Bosniak and Croat politicians generally welcomed the result of the referendum and expressed their desire for continued positive bilateral relations with an independent Montenegro. END SUMMARY. THE RS REACTION ¶2. (SBU) Igor Radojcic, the Speaker of the RS National Assembly (RSNA),met with Ranko Krivokapic, the Speaker of the Montenegro Assembly, on May 23. Radojcic (an ethnic Montenegrin) congratulated the Montenegrins on their independence and emphasized that the goals of the RS remain open borders and full cooperation with their neighbors. Many politicians in the RS noted that the referendum was merely formal recognition of the fact that the state of Serbia and Montenegro existed more on paper than in reality. Dragan Cavic, RS President and President of the Serb Democratic Party, praised the outcome of the vote, citing it as an important reminder that decisions about independence can and should be made through democratic processes and without violence. A few far-right organizations equated the RS and Montenegro and claimed that they would push the international community to allow a referendum in the RS regarding whether it wants independence from Bosnia and Herzegovina, but these voices were not representative of public opinion generally. THE PRESIDENCY IS SUPPORTIVE ¶3. (SBU) At the state level, Bosniak member of the BiH tri-presidency Sulejman Tihic and Chairman of the Council of Ministers Adnan Terzic both called the referendum "a victory for Montenegro" and expressed their full support for Montenegro as an independent state on the road to Euro-Atlantic integration. Croat tri-presidency member Ivo Miro Jovic also congratulated Montenegrins and rejected the suggestion that the results of the referendum could fuel separatist ambitions of either Kosovar Albanians or Serbs in the RS. ¶4. (C) COMMENT: The official BiH response was carefully tailored to follow the EU's lead. The muted reaction from the RS (both politicians and public) reflects a paradox: while they might welcome the validity of a referendum on status, the Montenegrins voted to sever links to Serbia (and other Serbs). Meanwhile, nervous Bosniaks are underscoring that Montenegro's republic status in the former Yugoslavia means there can be no parallel model for the RS, an integral part of BiH. MCELHANEY