Brazil: Domestic Demand Boosts Industry in First Half of 2006

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 09 SAO PAULO 000880 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR SCRONIN STATE PASS USTR FOR SULLIVAN/LEZNY DEPT OF TREASURY FOR DDOUGLASS USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC/JANDERSEN/ADRISCOLL/MWAR D USDOC ALSO FOR 3134/USFCS/OIO/EOLSON/DANDERSON STATE PASS EXIMBANK STATE PASS OPIC FOR DMORONSE, NRIVERA, CMERVENNE DOL FOR ILAB PEREZ-PKOPEZ AND WHOLEY E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON ELAB ETRD EFIN EIND BR SUBJECT: Brazil: Domestic Demand Boosts Industry in First Half of 2006 SAO PAULO 00000880 001.5 OF 009 ¶1. SUMMARY: Official data for the first half of 2006 suggest it should be a relatively good year for Brazil's economy, although less so than 2004. Slower global growth and the strong domestic currency (the Real) are, according to analysts, beginning to slow the growth of certain Brazilian exports. Inflation and unemployment are expected to drop steadily throughout the year. Falling interest rates and wage increases are boosting domestic demand. The auto industry set new records in production and exports in the first five months of 2006, but the appreciated Real has reduced the profitability of exports, reducing planned export levels and contributing to layoffs by some auto manufacturers. The trade surplus narrowed as export growth slowed and import growth accelerated. In national accounts, investment inflows in the second quarter were lower than expected due to turbulence in international financial markets. The current account has been pressured by higher-than-expected remittances of profits and dividends, in addition to higher outflow for interest payments on external debt. End Summary. SAO PAULO POSTED THE SECOND LOWEST INFLATION RATE OF SERIES ¶2. The Institute of Economic Research (FIPE) of the University of Sao Paulo reported that consumer price inflation in Sao Paulo was 0.64 percent in the first four months of 2006, the second lowest inflation rate it has ever recorded. Total inflation over a 12- month period through April 2006 was 2.57 percent, the lowest rate registered since the introduction of the Central Bank's inflation-targeting monetary policy regime in 1999. FIPE said that the pressure on the inflation index from inter-harvest ethanol fuel price increases has eased, making ethanol fuel consumption attractive again. FIPE noted that natural gas prices, even were they to climb 50 percent, will not weigh substantially in the inflation index, though it would be felt by the consumer. Inflation in the month of April rose only 0.1 percent. ¶3. According to FIPE Research Coordinator Paulo Picchetti, a firm adherence to inflation targeting and a strong exchange rate have curtailed price pressures. With inflation largely under control, FIPE revised downward, to 4 percent, its 2006 inflation rate to remain at 4 percent in 2007. In May, the FIPE index posted deflation of 0.22 percent, the largest decline since February ¶2000. Ethanol fuel prices declined for the second consecutive month, easing pressure on the index from January. Food prices, too, fell 0.89 percent for the 12th consecutive month. FIPE said that the devaluation of the dollar and the need to pay debts has led farmers to sell more produce domestically at bargain prices. The highest declines were registered in the price of rice, down 4.57 percent; oranges, down 10.66 percent; and beans, down 6.68 percent. FIPE also reported that the market basket price fell 1.05 percent in May. Cumulative inflation in the first five months of the year was 0.41 percent, and 1.97 percent in 12 months through May. TABLE I Monthly Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) in 2006: ? Sao Paulo Year 2006 January February March April May -------------- -------------- -------------- -------------- -------------- --- (Percent change) 0.50 (0.03) 0.14 0.01 (0.22) Source: FIPE Consumer Price Inflation ? Sao Paulo (Percent Change from April to May 2006) Source: FIPE -------------- Month April May -------------- -------------- --- SAO PAULO 00000880 002.2 OF 009 Transportation (0.04) (0.61) Food Products (0.64) (0.89) Rent (0.05) (0.01) Personal Care Services 0.26 0.02 Clothing 1.01 0.39 Tuition Fees 0.13 0.10 Health Care 1.26 0.80 Source: FIPE NATIONWIDE INFLATION AT ITS MILDEST PACE IN MANY YEARS ¶4. The Brazilian National Statistical Agency (IBGE) reported that the inflation in consumer prices nationwide, as measured by the National Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA),slowed to 0.10 percent in May from 0.21 percent in April, driving the 12-month inflation rate down to a 7-year low of 4.23 percent, which is below the 4.5 percent target set by the Brazilian Central Bank for 2006. IBGE noted that inflation was 0.49 for May 2005. The decline of inflation in May was due primarily to an 11 percent drop in ethanol fuel prices, which had been rising for months, as well as to mild increases for medicine, clothing, electricity and condominium fees. Overall, food prices declined slightly in May compared to the previous month. Chicken and beef were the only food products that posted an increase due to the resumption of exports. IBGE revised downward to 4.5 percent its IPCA inflation forecast for 2006, which is within the GOB inflation targeting range introduced in 1999. A Sao Paulo economist reported that a bumper agriculture crop and the positive impact of the exchange rate are sustaining lower inflation levels. ¶5. Background note: The IPCA serves as the primary benchmark for the GOB's inflation-targeting monetary policy. It records the average of daily price variations in eleven major cities (Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, Belem, Fortaleza, Salvador, Curitiba, Brasilia, and Goiania). The IPCA statistical sample includes families with incomes between one and forty times the monthly minimum wage (i.e., up to approximately USD 6,086 in May 2006). SAO PAULO INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UP IN THE FIRST QUARTER ¶6. The Sao Paulo Industrial Activity Index (INA),maintained by the Federation of Industries of the State of Sao Paulo (FIESP), rose 8.6 percent in the first quarter compared to the same quarter of 2005. Industrial activity in March rose 1.1 percent versus March of 2005. FIESP Economic Department Director Paulo Francini said that industrial output has surpassed all projections. He credited increased exports for the industrial output expansion and noted that vehicle, metalworking, and pulp and cardboard sectors were operating at 90 percent, 88.7 percent, and 91.4 percent of installed capacity, respectively. Real industrial sales in the first quarter climbed 22.6 percent compared to the same quarter of 2005, and hours worked rose 8.1 percent. According to FIESP, Sao Paulo state industry operated at an average 81.8 percent capacity in the first quarter of this year. FIESP predicted that current output capacity will be exhausted in the next two to three years if industry output grows at an average of 3.5 to 4 percent a year without new investment to support the expansion. ¶7. In April, by contrast, the Industrial Activity Index (INA), declined 1.4 percent from March but rose 4.8 percent in comparison to April 2005. In the opening four months of 2006, industrial production grew 7.6 percent. Overall, industrial capacity utilization was 79.8 percent in April. Real sales rose 20.9 percent in the four months under review and were up 16.2 percent when comparing April 2006 to April 2005; however, compared to March, real sales were down 10.3 percent. Hours worked in production in April fell 3 percent versus March but were up compared to a year ago. FIESP's Francini reinforced the view that the industrial sector will continue moving forward in the months ahead, notwithstanding still high interest rates. A SAO PAULO 00000880 003.2 OF 009 private sector business representative in Sao Paulo told us that the prospects for investment this year remain worrisome, given the lagging impact of high interest rates and the effect of current political uncertainties on business confidence. In fact, he noted that surveys already show a significant reduction in investment intentions in the steel, auto, and energy sectors. Other sources report that Sao Paulo industry output is losing steam and is not expected to grow more than 2 percent in the first half of this year compared to the first half of 2005. According to this source, paper and cardboard production will grow 3.3 percent, machines and equipment 1.4 percent, and electronic products 15 percent. TABLE II SELECTED FIESP DATA FOR THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2006 ¶A. Industrial activity, hours worked and sales: Percentage changes from previous year (data not seasonally adjusted): Jan-March 2006 Jan-March 2005 - - - - - - - Industrial Activity Level (1) 8.6 Hours worked in production 8.1 Real median salaries 9.0 Real Sales 22.6 Use of installed capacity 81.8 -- The activity level indicator (INA) is a composite of activity indicators including real sales, employment, hours worked in production, salaries, and capacity utilization. The INA index does not measure industrial production per se. SAO PAULO RETAIL SALES ROSE IN THE FIRST QUARTER ¶8. Retail sales in Sao Paulo in the first quarter of 2006 compared to the same quarter a year ago were up 2.4 percent, according to data released by the Federation of Commerce of the State of Sao Paulo (FCESP). March retail sales fell 2 percent from the same month of 2005, interrupting a series of eight consecutive months of growth in similar comparison. March 2006 compared to March 2005 showed the following positive results: clothing, textiles and footwear were up 7.7 percent; toiletries, up 7.2 percent; and auto parts, up 2.4 percent. Negative performance was registered by household appliances and electronic products, down 19.7 percent; furniture, down 3.7 percent; and supermarkets sales, down 2.9 percent. NATIONWIDE INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT UP IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2006 ¶9. According to IBGE, Brazilian industrial output nationwide grew 4.6 percent in the first quarter of 2006 compared to the same quarter of previous year, and was up 1.2 percent versus the immediately previous quarter, confirming the recovery begun in ¶2005. The growth of 4.6 percent in the first quarter in relation to the same quarter of 2005 was driven by 19 of the 27 industrial sectors. Mining, up 13.2, percent showed the biggest impact on the overall index, propelled principally by the production of iron ore and petroleum. Other relevant contributions came from machines and information technology (IT) equipment, up 67.4 percent, reflecting a higher production of computers; and electronics and communications equipment, up 21.7 percent, due to higher production of TV sets and cellular telephones. Activities with significant growth were electric machines and equipment, up 18.4 percent; pharmaceuticals, up 12.2 percent; tobacco, up 20.4 percent; and beverages, up 10.6 percent. On the other hand, the eight sectors that posted declines were wood, down 7.1 percent, and basic metallurgy, down 1.6 percent. The first quarter results also showed accelerated increase in durable consumer goods, which increased 14.9 percent, and capital goods, up 9.2 percent. Besides the 12.6 percent increase of auto production, SAO PAULO 00000880 004.3 OF 009 cellular telephones production also expanded 31.3 percent, and household appliances 13.9 percent. ¶10. In the capital goods sector, capital equipment production for the energy sector rose 45.2 percent; capital equipment production for construction expanded 21.4 percent; and capital goods for mixed use were up 17.3 percent. The main negative performance was of capital goods for the agricultural sector, down 17.5 percent. In the same comparison, production of semi- durable and non-durable consumer goods increased 4 percent, remaining slightly below the 4.6 percent rate for the overall industry. The major impact came from food products and beverages, up 5.3 percent, followed by other non-durables, up 3.8 percent, stimulated by higher production of magazines and medicines. It is worthwhile to note that fuels led by gasoline increased 7.5 percent. On the other hand, negative pressure came from semi-durables, down 1.8 percent, highlighted by leather shoes and clothing, excluding cotton garments. Intermediate goods expanded moderately, up 2.8 percent, pushed by the production of industrial inputs, which climbed 16.7 percent, and fuels and lubricants, up 13.9 percent, well above the average, due to the good performance of iron and petroleum. The only negative pressure came from industrialized foods and beverages, down 5.9 percent, due to a drop in production of sugarcane by- products. The production of packaging materials grew 1 percent in the quarter under review, while construction materials rose 6.9 percent. In summary, the evolution of indices in the first quarter of 2006 showed a positive scenario for Brazil's industrial performance. ¶11. Industrial production remained stable in April from the previous month after declining slightly in March. Compared to April of 2005, industrial output fell 1.9 percent; however, accumulated expansion was 2.9 percent in the first four months of 2006 versus the same period of 2005. Over a 12-month period including April, cumulative growth was 6.2 percent. Of the 27 industrial sectors surveyed in April by IBGE, 19 posted expansion compared to March, and 8 registered decreases. The outstanding performance was that of business machines and informatics equipment, up 52.2 percent, and petroleum refining and ethanol fuel production, up 8.3 percent. On the negative side, the largest pressures were from the pharmaceutical sector, down 11.4 percent, food products, down 6.9 percent and autos, down 6.2 percent. A business contact told us that industrial performance in the months ahead is one of gradual increase. ¶12. Industrial production increased in March in 12 of the 14 principal Brazilian regions compared to March of 2005. Para state outperformed the national average, clocking 17.5 percent growth. Other states with growth include Ceara, up 12.3 percent; Amazonas, up 8.5 percent; Minas Gerais, up 7.3 percent; Sao Paulo, up 6.4 percent; Bahia, up 5.9 percent; Northeast Region, up 4.6 percent, Pernambuco, up 3.9 percent; Espirito Santo, up 2 percent, Santa Catarina, up 1.7 percent; Rio de Janeiro, up 1.3 percent and Goias, up 0.1 percent. Meanwhile, industrial production fell in Rio Grande do Sul, down 1 percent; and in Parana, down 3.2 percent. ¶13. Overall, according to IBGE data released in the third week of June, of the 14 areas surveyed, production remained stable in April versus April 2005. Of 14 regions surveyed, 6 posted growth, 6 registered declines and two showed no loss or gain. Once more, Para topped the list with exceptional growth of 10.2 percent; Pernambuco was up 8.6 percent; Bahia, 5.2 percent; Espirito Santo, 1.3 percent; Minas Gerais, 1.2 percent, and the Northeast Region, 1.2 percent. Negative performance was reported in Santa Catarina, down 10.2 percent; Amazonas, down 9 percent; Rio Grande do Sul, down 8.9 percent, Parana, down 6.3 percent; Goias, down 4.9 percent and Sao Paulo, down 1.2 percent. IBGE said that two fewer working days in April were responsible for the meager performance. Cumulative performance in the first four SAO PAULO 00000880 005.4 OF 009 months of 2006 compared to the same period of 2005 showed that the state of Para, which led with a growth of 12 percent, was sustained by the extraction of iron ore. NATIONWIDE RETAIL SALES BETTER THAN EXPECTED IN APRIL ¶14. According to IBGE, April retail sales posted an increase of 1.43 percent and the year-on-year growth rate increased 7.42 percent, consolidating reports of growth based on greater domestic demand. Growth in the last twelve months including April was 5.05 percent compared to the same period a year ago. Six of the eight sectors surveyed by IBGE sold more in April than in March of this year. Lower lending rates, higher family income and increased credit facilities boosted consumer spending. The outstanding performances were supermarket sales of food, beverages, cigarettes, communications material and equipment, computers and office equipment. Also, clothing sales helped the recovery as winter sales gained steam in April. Durable goods had a strong performance boosted by world cup related sales of TV sets and DVD players. The fuels and lubricants sector was among the few that posted a negative performance during the period. Cumulative increase of retail sales in the first four months of this year amounted to 5.64 percent, outstripping last year's 4.84 percent increase during the same period. IBGE believes that retail trade has also benefited from declining interest rates, higher minimum wages, better employment conditions and higher fiscal spending. SAO PAULO INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT UP IN MAY ¶15. A survey by the Federation of Industries of the State of Sao Paulo (FIESP) showed a 0.7 percent increase in Sao Paulo industrial employment in May for a gain 15,000 jobs. Compared to May of 2005, Sao Paulo industry generated 75,000 more jobs. Despite a slower increase in the number of jobs generated in the first five months of 2006, FIESP maintained its earlier projections of a 4 percent increase of new jobs in 2006. FIESP'S Economic Research Department Director, Paulo Francini, said that the 0.70 percent hike in industrial employment was positive, though modest given the 1.92 percent increase of April. He noted that compared to May of 2005 the increase is already 3.6 percent and that it would not be difficult to reach 4 percent growth this year. Francini emphasized that conditions for increased consumption are in place, supported by income expansion, continued growth of credit facilities, a higher minimum salary, increasing public expenditure and more public investments. He also reinforced the view that consumption can increase in some sectors but without a corresponding increase in domestic production. "We can see this clearly in the footwear sector with growing demand sustained by imports. In a nutshell, demand grows and local production declines". In the survey of the 21 industrial associations consulted by FIESP, 7 fired workers, 11 hired workers and two reported no net gain or loss. The largest number of dismissals occurred in the office equipment, furniture, leather tanning and footwear industries. Most of the added workers were in the ethanol fuel, food and beverages, transport then equipment, coke, and petroleum refining industries. COUNTRYWIDE INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT UP IN APRIL ¶16. According to IBGE data, nationwide industrial employment was up 0.6 percent in April compared to March, but fell 0.8 percent compared to April of 2005. IBGE pointed out this is the eighth consecutive negative result. Cumulative industrial employment in the first four months of this year also was down 0.8 percent. Industrial employment countrywide fell in April in 8 of 14 areas surveyed compared to April of 2005. The state of Rio Grande do Sul, down 9.3 percent, was the most affected due to cutback of footwear and leather goods output, as well as the Northeast Region. Over 12 months to April, industrial employment nationwide fell 0.1 percent. Wages fell 0.7 percent in April versus the previous month. This is the second consecutive month SAO PAULO 00000880 006.2 OF 009 of drop in wage levels accumulating a contraction of 2.7 percent. Confronting other indicators, workers' wages were up 2.2 percent in the first four months of this year versus the same period of 2005, and up 2.2 percent in 12 months to April. UNEMPLOYMENT STABLE IN GREATER SAO PAULO IN APRIL ¶17. The total unemployment rate in the greater Sao Paulo area, calculated jointly by the Sao Paulo State Statistical Institute (SEADE) and the Labor Union-Funded Statistical and Research Center (DIEESE),remained stable at 16.9 percent compared to March. The Sao Paulo metropolitan area had over 1,700,000 workers looking for jobs in April, compared to 1,659,000 workers in March. The number of unemployed fell 5,000 in April, as the 22,000 new jobs created were not sufficient to absorb 27,000 workers who entered the labor market. (Note: The SEADE/DIEESE index includes underemployed and discouraged workers and is therefore higher than the open market rate measured by IBGE. IBGE figures showed the unemployment rate for greater Sao Paulo as 10.4 percent in April, the same rate as in March. End Note). The SEADE/DIEESE data showed that the unemployment rate in the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo has remained stable this year. ¶18. Greater Sao Paulo's economically active population in December was estimated at 10,058,000 persons, up slightly from 10,031,000 persons in March and 10,100,000 in February. Meanwhile, the number of persons employed in April was 8,358,000, up 0.3 percent from March. Of those persons employed in April, 1.62 million were industrial workers; 1.28 million worked in commerce/retail; 4.49 million were in the services sector; and 953,000 worked in other sectors including construction and household services. ¶19. The SEADE/DIEESE workforce statistics reflected the following performance by various sectors in April compared to March. Job Generation/Loss by Sector April/06 thru (Reported in thousands) March/06 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Industry -13 Services 37 Civil construction/household help -05 Commerce Retail 03 (Source: SEADE/DIEESE) (Note: The SEADE/DIEESE survey results differ from FIESP's because SEADE/DIEESE limits its survey to the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo; is conducted among 3,600 assorted households, including self-employed and unregistered workers; and surveys different households each month. FIESP's survey covers the state of Sao Paulo; is limited to a fixed number of large industrial firms, which are surveyed every month; and excludes self-employed and unregistered workers. End Note). NATIONALY UNEMPLOYMENT WAS STABLE IN APRIL AND MAY ¶20. According to a monthly survey carried out countrywide by IBGE in the six largest metropolitan regions (Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Salvador and Recife),the overall unemployment rate for these regions was estimated at 10.4 percent, and was stable compared to March (10.4 percent). In relation to April 2005, the scenario was also of stability. By areas, comparing April with March of this year, there was no significant change in the six areas covered by the survey. Compared to April of 2005, two metropolitan regions showed changes: Unemployment in Recife rose from 13 percent to 16.5 percent, while Salvador fell from 17 percent to 13.4 percent. Other regions were was stable. The average real income of workers increased 0.4 percent and 4.7 percent compared to the same month of 2005. Unemployment in the six metropolitan regions fell 0.2 percentage points in May of this year compared April. SAO PAULO 00000880 007.3 OF 009 Statistically, this variation does not make much difference, said IBGE. The average real income increased 1.3 percent in May compared to April, and 7.7 percent versus May 2005. BRAZIL'S VEHICLE INDUSTRY SETS RECORD HIGH PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS IN THE FIRST FIVE MONTHS OF 2006 ¶21. According to the Brazilian Vehicle Manufacturers' Association (ANFAVEA),auto manufacturers set new records in terms of production and exports in the first five months of this year, up 6.1 percent and 8.6 percent, respectively, despite complaints about the unfavorable exchange rate and the reason why Volkswagen and General Motors have announced plans to cut back production and fire workers. ANFAVEA also reported that production and exports of vehicles were the highest for a month of May, up 20.1 percent and 16.7 percent. This is the all-time high for a month of May since the auto industry began operations in Brazil. All the same, ANFAVEA President Rogelio Golfarb said it has been difficult for manufacturers to close new export contracts because the exchange rate is still volatile. The sale of agricultural machinery, harvesters and implements continued to slide due to increasing production costs and heavy farm debt. He said that over the past two years, the Brazilian currency has appreciated more than 35 percent against the US dollar. He also said that exports account for nearly 35 percent of overall production. Golfarb defended a review of the exchange legislation with the possibility for auto companies to use export resources to import inputs without the need to bring the foreign currency into the country. ¶22. According to an industry source, exports rose 16.7 percent in May, totaling USD 1.06 billion. In April vehicle exports had fallen 9.4 percent to 906,700 units compared to March. Cumulative value of export sales of vehicles in the first five months of this year amounted to USD 4.6 billion. Despite the 8.6 percent growth in the first four months, ANFAVEA maintained projections of a 2.7 percent growth in 2006 in return for USD 11.5 billion. The same source reported that exports in the first five months of 2005 had climbed 40 percent. ¶23. In May, the auto industry manufactured 245,200 units, up 20.1 percent compared to April. Domestic sales totaled 164,100 units, up 25.1 percent. In percentage terms, sales of flex-fuel cars fell from 77.6 percent of total sales in the first quarter but fell in May to 76.3 percent. ANFAVEA explained that ethanol prices were too high recently, so many consumers stopped buying flex-fuel cars; however, with more recent ethanol price decreases, to about two-thirds the cost of gasoline, demand should increase again. GM AND VOLKSWAGEN ANNOUCE WORK FORCE AND EXPORT CUT DUE TO DECLINING RECEIPTS ¶24. GM Brazil reported it is cutting approximately 960 jobs, almost 10 percent of total work force at its principal car plant, due to declining export sales. GM blamed the Brazilian currency's sharp appreciation compared to the US dollar as the main reason for the cut in work force. GM has offered a retirement buyout plan to its employees. GM Vice President Pinheiro Neto said that GM exported nearly 210,000 units in 2005 worth USD 1.6 billion. This year he expects exports to drop 20 to 30 percent. Also, the Brazilian subsidiary of Volkswagen announced a plan to gradually cut labor costs by approximately 25 percent and exports by 40 percent, but that the cut of 25 percent in workers' costs would not impose layoffs reaching 25 percent. VW said the company may cut back on foreign sales by 100,000 units until 2008 due to the exchange rate. Exports account for 40 percent of VW's output in Brazil. Trade and Development Minister Luiz Fernando Furlan reportedly said that the GOB is considering lax law changes as well as ways and means to help the auto industry maintain competitiveness in foreign markets. According to the Metalworkers' Union in Sao Paulo, VW is planning on firing nearly 6,000 workers. SAO PAULO 00000880 008.4 OF 009 BRAZIL'S TRADE SURPLUS NARROWED IN THE MONTH OF MAY ¶25. Brazil's slowdown in exports and growth of imports cut the country's trade surplus in May for the second month, the slowest pace in almost three years. The trade surplus in May was down 12.2 percent to USD 3.02 billion versus the same month of 2005. Total exports in May were USD 10.3 billion and imports 7.4 billion. The appreciation of the Brazilian currency, which has gained around 25 percent versus the US dollar in the last two years, has cut export demand of minerals, soybeans, manufactured goods and other products. FIESP analysts said the cut in demand will lead to a loss of momentum for exports in the coming months. ¶26. A Trade and Development Ministry source said the decline of the US dollar versus the Brazilian Real provoked a 22 percent hike in imports between January and May of this year. During this period, foreign products worth USD 34 billion were imported compared to USD 27.8 billion imported in the same period a year ago. Armando Meziat, Secretary of the Ministry of Trade and Development said that imports of industrial machinery and capital goods are on the rise, an indication that Brazilian industries are investing again. Although consumer goods? participation of total imports is small, orders for imports of these products have grown the most. From January to May of this year, imports of consumer goods cost the country USD nearly one billion US dollars, up 43 percent compared to the same period of 2005. Only in May, imports of vehicles total USD 141 million, 165 percent above figures for May of 2005. Meziat said that if necessary, the GOB can implement measures to reduce the inflow of imports. "If this happens to become a problem, there are mechanisms to neutralize this problem", he said, citing the possibility of hiking import tariffs on goods that can prejudice domestic manufacturers. Cumulative surplus from January through May was USD 15.4 billion, compared to USD 15.6 billion in the same period of 2005. However, Meziat minimized the trade surplus decline, saying it was expected by government authorities. He projected exports to decline 8 percent compared to the 23 percent hike in ¶2005. He attributed the decline of exports as well as imports due to a strike by Brazilian customs officers begun at the end of April. This strike, he noted, is hampering entry and exit of merchandize and is affecting the trade balance. ¶27. On the other hand, imports totaled USD 73.5 billion in 2005, up 17.1 percent. All import categories reported increases: capital goods rose 26.9 percent; consumer goods were up 23.7 percent; fuel and lubricants climbed 15.7 percent; and, raw materials and intermediate goods posted 12.6 percent growth. Import demand for raw materials and intermediate goods and capital goods were the main items that increased total imports. TABLE III CUMULATIVE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BETWEEN JANUARY AND MAY 2006 (IN USD BILLION): 2006 Exports Imports Surplus -------------- -------------- -------------- -------------- January 9.27 6.43 2.84 February 8.75 5.93 2.82 March 11.37 7.69 3.68 April 9.80 6.70 3.10 May 10.28 7.25 3.02 Source: Ministry of Trade and Development (MT&D) BRAZIL'S FDI TOTALED 6.32 BILLION IN THE FIRST FIVE MONTHS; FORECAST PREDICTS REDUCED FDI INFLOW IN 2006 ¶28. The Brazilian Central Bank said that turbulence in international financial markets is causing harm to the country's external accounts. The Chief of the Brazilian Central Bank's Economic Studies Department (DEPEC),Altamir Lopes, forecast a SAO PAULO 00000880 009.2 OF 009 slim FDI inflow in June of not more than USD 500 million. Despite weak inflow of FDI this year, Lopes said that DEPEC maintained its earlier projection of USD 18 billion FDI inflow this year given significant improvement of international financial markets. In May, inflow of FDI was USD 1.58 billion, and in the first five months USD 6.32 billion, a monthly average of USD 1.26 billion. BRAZIL CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS UP IN MAY ¶29. According to data released by the Brazilian Central Bank, the current account surplus increased in May to USD 475 million from USD 241 million in April. Brazilian Central Bank authorities said the May surplus was in line with expectations. The current account surplus diminished about 20 percent in May compared to May of 2005. However, higher remittances were responsible for the pressure on the account. Sao Paulo financial market analysts reported that the reduced current account surplus is likely to reflect the expectation of increased pressure from remittances of profits and dividends, in addition to a higher outflow of interest payments in the coming months. ¶30. This message was coordinated with Embassy Brasilia. MCMULLEN