ELECTION 2006: OPPOSITION PSDB TO DECIDE ON

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 SAO PAULO 000073 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS NSC FOR CRONIN STATE PASS USTR FOR SULLIVAN/LEZNY USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC/JANDERSEN/ADRISCOLL/MWAR D USDOC FOR 3134/USFCS/OIO/EOLSON/DDEVITO/DANDERSON E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON ETRD PINR BR SUBJECT: ELECTION 2006: OPPOSITION PSDB TO DECIDE ON CANDIDATE BY LATE MARCH Sensitive but Unclassified -- Protect Accordingly -------------- INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) In a series of meetings in Sao Paulo on January 16- 20, Charge d'Affaires (CDA),Sao Paulo Consul General, Embassy PolCounselor and SP Poloff discussed the coming presidential election with the leading PSDB candidates - Sao Paulo city mayor Jose Serra (who is still undeclared) and Sao Paulo state governor Gerald Alckmin (who has announced his candidacy) -- and conveyed to both USG positions on bilateral relations and regional issues, notably Bolivia. CDA and Mission Officers also met the Paulo vice mayor and vice governor, probable state gubernatorial candidates, and PT party leadership figures. In presenting USG views to all interlocutors, CDA registered the following points: --The U.S. has good bilateral relations with Brazil, but not the strategic partnership we would like to have. We have productive discussions in a number of areas, even though we don't always agree, but we don't accomplish as much as we might like. For example, in FTAA, we don't know what we can accomplish because we are not truly negotiating. --On Bolivia (repeating points made by A/S Shannon during his January 10-11 meetings in Brasilia),the USG respects the choice of the Bolivian people and is prepared to have a dialogue with President Morales, but it would be helpful if he toned down his anti-U.S. rhetoric. Moreover, if Morales keeps his campaign pledge to legalize all coca cultivation and cease eradication efforts, Brazil - especially Sao Paulo and other urban centers -- will see a flood of inexpensive cocaine. ¶2. (SBU) On presidential politics, Serra told CDA he has not yet made up his mind concerning a presidential bid; he has been mayor for just over a year and believes "the people want me to stay." He said he would decide by the second half of March. Alckmin fully acknowledges his candidacy and the influential Sao Paulo business community overwhelmingly supports him, but he lacks name recognition in the rest of the country. Mission officers were told the PSDB has no formal mechanism for choosing between the two candidates, and no plans to hold a primary or a caucus. Instead, a small group of party leaders - commanded by former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso -- will make the decision, with Cardoso's views having the most weight. The most important factor clearly will be which candidate is more likely to defeat Lula. Some in the PSDB are calling for a decision before the February 25-28 "Carnaval" holiday, but a decision may wait until mid-March. End introduction/summary. -------------- BACKGROUND: THE ELECTORAL LANDSCAPE -------------- ¶3. (SBU) As Brazil enters its electoral season, a defining question is who will be the candidate of the opposition Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB): Sao Paulo Mayor Jose Serra or Sao Paulo State Governor Geraldo Alckmin. The elections - for President, 513 Federal Deputies, 27 Senators, 27 Governors, and state legislators - will take place October 1 (with a second round as needed October 29). The campaign does not formally kick off until the beginning of July, but the question of the PSDB candidacy is made pressing by the legal requirement that executive branch office-holders must resign six months before the elections to preserve their eligibility as candidates for public office. (The only exceptions are Presidents and Governors seeking re-election.) On January 9, Alckmin announced his intention to step down by March 31 in order to remain SAO PAULO 00000073 002 OF 005 eligible to run for President. Alckmin's announcement threw the PSDB into turmoil, as many party leaders support Serra, who was the party's presidential candidate in 2002 and who current polls show could defeat President Lula in a runoff. ¶4. (SBU) This year's elections take place against the backdrop of the scandals that dominated Brazilian politics in 2005. President Lula's Workers' Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores - PT) has been decimated, his government weakened, and his personal reputation tarnished. Hence one of the questions in the PSDB's Serra vs. Alckmin debate has been whether Lula would seek re-election. Some pundits have suggested he might not run, and Lula has been obtuse on the question -- he appears already in full campaign mode, but just last week cryptically told an audience, "I won't be here in 2007." Should he decide not to run, the electoral panorama would change. In meetings with CDA, leading PT personalities stressed that Lula is the one and only champion for the party. Former Sao Paulo Mayor Marta Suplicy, a member of the PT's National Directorate, told CDA that if Lula doesn't run, the PT has no other viable candidate. PT President Ricardo Berzoini, while confirming that Lula had told him "he's still thinking and will let us know at the opportune moment," admitted to CDA that the PT "has no Plan B." (Comment: Lula appears to be playing for time, watching for improvement in his poll numbers, or if further scandal revelations or other factors make his defeat likely, before taking a decision. But most observers assume Lula will run. End comment.) ¶5. (SBU) A wild card is a possible Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) candidacy. Populist former Rio de Janeiro Governor Anthony Garotinho announced last week he was stepping down from his position as Rio state secretary to devote full time to his presidential campaign, and Rio Grande do Sul Governor Germano Rigotto announced he will run against Garotinho in the PMDB's March primary. Recent polls show Garotinho, who has considerable support among evangelicals, in third place with 16 percent of the vote if Alckmin is the candidate and 12 percent if Serra is the candidate. -------------- JOSE SERRA -------------- ¶6. (SBU) In the competition for the PSDB nomination, Jose Serra is currently considered the front-runner, in large part because he is perceived as more likely to defeat Lula, a perception buttressed by numerous polls. There are other reasons to prefer Serra. He is older (63) than Alckmin (53),has more varied experience in government, and is better known nationally. He has studied abroad in Chile, France, and the U.S., and earned a doctorate in economics from Cornell. He was Sao Paulo State Secretary of Economy and Planning from 1983 to 1987. He served two four-year terms (1986-94) as federal deputy. Elected to the Senate in 1994, he left to serve as Minister of Planning (1995-96) and later Minister of Health (1998-2002) in Fernando Henrique Cardoso's government. As Health Minister, he developed Brazil's progressive HIV/AIDS treatment program and led the government's efforts to win WTO recognition of the right to break patents on HIV/AIDS drugs. As the PSDB's presidential candidate in 2002, he lost to Lula 46.4 to 23.2 percent in the first round, and 61.4 to 38.6 in the second round. ¶7. (SBU) Serra was elected mayor of Sao Paulo in 2004, making a pledge then that he would serve his full four-year term. This is the major problem he has to overcome if he wants to run for President. He would be departing after only 15 months in office, and turning power over to Vice- Mayor Gilberto Kassab of the Liberal Front Party (PFL),who is considered by some to be inexperienced and under an SAO PAULO 00000073 003 OF 005 ethical cloud (he served as Secretary of Planning in the corrupt 1997-2000 administration of Mayor Celso Pitta). Another weakness is that some consider Serra a leftist and the business community is wary of him. As Cardoso's health minister, Serra demonstrated a tendency at times towards government intervention, and he recently indicated that, if elected, he would act as his own finance minister. His stance on patents and on price controls for HIV/AIDS drugs earned him the enmity of the pharmaceutical industry and the suspicion of other business interests, and may account for the business community's strong preference for Alckmin. Political observers have also noted that he has high negative numbers, suggesting that his support may be constrained by the amount of opposition he arouses. Finally, many colleagues have found him abrasive, sometimes stubborn, and difficult to deal with. Despite these perceptions, he has earned good marks as mayor of this city of nearly 10.2 million with its highly complex crime, pollution, and traffic problems. Indeed, he has won all but one of his legislative initiatives with the city council. ¶8. (SBU) Assistant Mayor for Central Sao Paulo Andrea Matarazzo, a key Serra advisor, told CDA that a Serra victory would lead to a qualitative step forward for Brazil. Matarazzo, a businessman who served as Secretary of Social Communications and Ambassador to Italy under President Cardoso, said Serra is not as far to the left as some think. He stressed Brazil's need to grow economically and maintain low inflation while bringing interest rates down. Under the current government, Brazil is growing less than the rest of the world. Lula's ministers are ill-prepared for their tasks, the third-world-oriented foreign policy is counter- productive, and the scandal has hurt Brazil's international image. ¶9. (SBU) There is no formal party decision-making process, Matarazzo said. Fernando Henrique Cardoso will hear from party leaders and make a decision by late February or mid- March. Serra, Matarazzo continued, is the party's favorite in all states except Sao Paulo. The gubernatorial and congressional candidates want to be on a ticket with someone who can win in a first round, and Serra looks stronger based on current polls. Alckmin announced his candidacy because he was trailing in the polls and lacked support among party leaders, and decided to force the issue with a dramatic gesture. He would have been a fine candidate for the PSDB when Lula looked like a shoo-in, but now that Lula can be beaten, Serra is the one to do it, Matarazzo opined. Matarazzo said he will be working in the strategic area of Serra's campaign but will remain as Assistant Mayor in order to provide continuity in the municipal government. ¶10. (SBU) In his January 19 meeting with the CDA, Serra indicated that the party's inclination was for him to be the candidate, and it was generally believed he would have better coattails than Alckmin. He said he "has not taken yet a decision on running,"and was still studying the matter, as he took his seriously his responsibilities to Sao Paulo city. Serra described some of his accomplishments as mayor: Cleaning up an inherited "disastrous" financial situation (Serra implied financial irregularities in bidding and contracting under his PT predecessor, Marta Suplicy), resurfacing streets, delivering food and health services to the poor, combating drugs, piracy, and crime. (NOTE: Sao Paulo police, working with state and federal authorities, conducted a series of raids in December on notorious centers for the distribution of pirated merchandise. END NOTE.) He noted that there were 200,000 Bolivians in Sao Paulo, working in the informal economy, using city services, competing with Brazilians for jobs. On foreign policy issues, Serra called the Lula government's bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council a "joke." On trade, he considered Mercosul a "mistake" and criticized SAO PAULO 00000073 004 OF 005 Lula for doing nothing to reform it. He said Brazil and the U.S. should negotiate FTAA, or even a bilateral free trade agreement. Brazil needs to develop its domestic economy more, needs to import more and to attract more foreign investment, he said. -------------- GERALDO ALCKMIN -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Alckmin has announced his candidacy and, though at this point he must be considered the underdog within the PSDB, he presents some advantages. Term limits preclude his running for re-election as Governor, and his PSDB supporters insist this gives a "naturalness" to his bid for the presidency. He is less known nationally than Serra, but conversely he may be seen as a fresh face who lacks Serra's negatives. There may be less of a ceiling to his support, and while he does not have Serra's breadth of experience, he has an impressive record as an administrator. Alckmin began his political career at age 19 while still in medical school, serving as a city councilman from his home town of Pindamonhangaba (Sao Paulo State),where he later served has Mayor. He was elected to the state legislative assembly in 1982 and to the federal Chamber of Deputies in 1986. At that time he was a member of the Brazilian Democratic Movement, the legal opposition to the military dictatorship, but in 1988, he was one of the founding members of the PSDB and later served as Sao Paulo state party president. Re- elected to the Chamber in 1990, he was elected Lieutenant Governor of Sao Paulo State in 1994 and re-elected in 1998. He became Governor upon the death of Mario Covas in 2001 and was re-elected in 2002, garnering 58 percent in the second round against PT candidate Jose Genoino. ¶12. (SBU) Arnaldo Madeira, Governor Alckmin's Chief of Staff, told the CDA that the PSDB is engaged in internal conversations aimed at reaching a consensus on the candidate, ideally by about March 10. Private sector representatives have input into these conversations but do not have a decisive role in the decision, which belongs to the major party leaders and other office-holders. In the end, Fernando Henrique Cardoso's view will be decisive. He could get the nomination himself if he wanted it, though Madeira believes he doesn't. According to Madeira, the late Governor Covas was the natural candidate in 1994 but deferred to Cardoso; accordingly, Cardoso now owes Covas's protege, Alckmin. The PSDB is assuming Lula will be the PT candidate, since the party has no other strong names. ¶13. (SBU) Madeira said the PSDB is still formulating its electoral program in consultation with economists, but that it will focus on the historic loss of opportunity for economic growth under the current government, along with its third-world-oriented foreign policy and mismanagement of social programs. He stated that Lula would have a difficult time getting re-elected and that the PSDB's prospects look good. Madeira himself will be departing at the same time as Alckmin to re-assume his Congressional Seat and run for re-election to the Chamber. In all, he said, seven members of the Alckmin administration will resign to seek office. Lieutenant Governor Claudio Lembo (PFL) will assume the Governorship, but only for nine months. ¶14. (SBU) In his meeting with the CDA on January 20, Governor Alckmin spoke of the important partnership between Sao Paulo state and the U.S. He also said Brazil needs to be better integrated into the international economy. Trade is growing and Brazil needs more markets. Mercosul is fine, but Brazil also needs to negotiate FTAA on a reciprocal basis. SAO PAULO 00000073 005 OF 005 ¶15. (SBU) Alckmin acknowledged the internal PSDB problem, which he hoped would soon be resolved. He was planning to meet imminently with his "good partner" Minas Gerais Governor Aecio Neves, and then travel to the northeastern states of Sergipe and Pernambuco (clearly an attempt to gain exposure outside his home region). Alckmin thought the campaign was moving forward well and that his record in creating jobs and generating exports stood him in good stead. He spoke of the challenges state governors face in Brazil, including problems with a dysfunctional judicial system, which sometimes issues "absurd" rulings. (In example, he noted that labor courts had recently ordered the rehiring of 1750 dismissed state employees, including 1250 who had already been indemnified.) Asked about his priorities for governing Brazil, he said the first priority is economic development. He also stressed the need for tax reform, especially simplification of the tax code; completing social security reform and eliminating the system's high deficit; and passing labor reform and political reform. He said he would strive to cut the cost of government and invest the savings in national infrastructure development. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶16. (SBU) Serra and Alckmin both appear highly qualified to be President of Brazil, and either should be able to mount a strong campaign against Lula. Both of them clearly want the job, though Serra still faces the challenge of finding a graceful way out of his commitment to remain as Mayor. Neither candidate is particularly charismatic, but both have strong track records as administrators and reputations for personal integrity. Both men appear favorably disposed toward the United States and supportive of FTAA. Lula is reported to prefer Serra as an opponent, perhaps because he defeated him four years ago and knows what to expect from him, whereas Alckmin could present surprises. However, that may be misdirection, especially in light of the polls that show Serra so much stronger against Lula. PT President Berzoini expressed the view that Alckmin comes across well on TV, calmly and soberly explaining his positions, whereas Serra has gotten a reputation as possibly an adventurer in a financial sense, which, if true, would be worrisome to business people and investors. ¶17. (SBU) Alckmin is right when he claims that the polls offer only a snapshot and that the numbers are subject to change drastically once the campaign is under way. But the polls nevertheless offer one of the few concrete indicators to guide the preferences of the politicians who must decide between the two, and on that level, Serra appears to have the edge within the PSDB at this time. ¶18. (SBU) So far, the rivalry does not appear to have damaged the PSDB, despite some sniping back and forth between the two camps. Most observers expect the PSDB to close ranks behind the eventual nominee and to wage a strong campaign against a vulnerable Lula. But if the issue is not resolved in the near term (by the end of March),or if the loser does not gracefully accept the party's decision, there could be negative consequences for the PSDB. End comment. ¶19. (U) This cable was cleared/coordinated with Embassy Brasilia. McMullen