MEDIA REACTION: IRAN, US TALKS OFFER, NUCLEAR PROGRAM; SAO

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 000649 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD DEPT PASS USTR USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: IRAN, US TALKS OFFER, NUCLEAR PROGRAM; SAO PAULO "Nuclear Supremacy" Political analyst Demetrio Magnoli wrote in liberal, largest national circulation daily Folha de S. Paulo (6/8): "Washington's double standard policy, which rewards India and threatens Iran, is morally shameful, but strategically consistent. The Bush administration's National Security Strategy report of 2002 defined the goal of an absolute nuclear hegemony.... Contrary to the scenario during the Cold War's end, when a US first nuclear attack would result in mutual destruction, today it would force a destroyed Russia's surrender. According to a popular myth, the modernization of the US nuclear arsenal is aimed at facing threats posed by secondary powers or terrorist groups. But investment priorities have indicated that the true targets are Russia and China.... The anti-missile shield currently being developed in the US can only be explained as a complementary element of a first attack against one of these powers. A CIA report has projected a scenario in which China's military power will overcome Russia's by 2020.... But China's nuclear deterrent force will not be significant. It is in that context that Washington's double standard policy is understood. According to the US strategy, India must sediment its condition of medium nuclear power to counterbalance China. India is a 'responsible state' because it has just established a strategic partnership with the US, which sponsors its 'official' nuclear status and defines the limits of its nuclear program. Even a limited Iranian nuclear arsenal would represent an intolerable threat against the US presence in the Middle East and would cause a 'nuclear race' in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. McMullen