BRAZIL: A COMBINATION OF INDUSTRIAL EXPANSION, LOW

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 08 SAO PAULO 000258 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR SCRONIN STATE PASS USTR FOR SULLIVAN/LEZNY DEPT OF TREASURY FOR FPARODI USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC/JANDERSEN/ADRISCOLL/MWAR D USDOC ALSO FOR 3134/USFCS/OIO/EOLSON/DDEVITO/DANDERSON STATE PASS EXIMBANK STATE PASS OPIC FOR DMORONESE, NRIVERA, CMERVENNE DOL FOR ILAB PEREZ-PKOPEZ AND WHOLEY E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON ELAB ETRD EFIN EINV EIND BR SUBJECT: BRAZIL: A COMBINATION OF INDUSTRIAL EXPANSION, LOW INFLATION, RECORD TRADE AND CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS RESCUED THE ECONOMY FROM STAGNATION IN 2005 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. Brazil's record trade surplus combined with currency appreciation that benefited imports and a substantial current account surplus were the main economic surprises of 2005. Brazil is recovering from a production slowdown in the third quarter of 2005 on the strength of year-end sales and companies replenishing inventories. Unemployment dropped both in Sao Paulo and nationally, accompanied by a slight increase in real wages. While the auto industry celebrated increased sales, companies are concerned that the strong Real and high interest rates may hinder their competitiveness; at the same time, they are excited about the success of flex-fuel engines. A huge trade surplus and foreign direct investment inflows contributed to the current account surplus, while low inflation generated a climate of stability and confidence. End Summary. -------------- SAO PAULO INFLATION IN 2005 LOWEST SINCE 2000 -------------- ¶2. The Institute of Economic Research (FIPE) of the University of Sao Paulo reported consumer inflation in Sao Paulo at 4.53 percent in 2005, after repeating a 0.29 percent increase in December, the same as in November. This was the lowest annual inflation rate since 2000 and well below the 6.56 percent rate of 2004. Health care services, tuition fees, and transportation tariffs accounted for two-thirds of the consumer price index. Consumer inflation measured by FIPE for the month of January 2006 was 0.50 percent. Over a 12-month period ending in January 2006, inflation was also 4.53 percent. Listed below is total inflation over the past three years as well as several significant Sao Paulo inflation factors for ¶2005. Total Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) - Sao Paulo -------------- --- Year 2003 2004 2005 -------------- -------------- -------------- -------------- (Percent change) 8.18 6.57 4.53 Source: FIPE CPI Factors - Sao Paulo -------------- Year 2005 -------------- -------------- Transportation 13.08 Food Products 0.47 Rent 2.77 Personal Care Services 3.87 Clothing 2.30 Tuition Fees 6.54 Health Care 9.26 (Percent Change from 2004) Source: FIPE Monthly CPI in 2005 -------------- Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 0.56 0.36 0.79 0.87 0.49 (0.2) (0.3) 0.2 0.44 0.63 0.29 0.29 SAO PAULO 00000258 002 OF 008 (Percent change) Source: FIPE -------------- NATIONWIDE INFLATION FELL IN 2005 -------------- ¶3. The Brazilian National Statistical Agency (IBGE) reported that consumer prices nationwide, as measured by the National Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA),fell to 0.36 percent in December from 0.55 percent in November. IBGE attributes this decrease to weak consumer demand, which left retailers with less room to increase prices. Inflation slowed in 2005 for the fourth consecutive year and was within the GOB targeted inflation range established in 1999. A substantial supply of agricultural products and the effects of the stronger Real were primarily responsible for reducing pressure on the index. On the other hand, the index was negatively impacted by high international oil prices, bus fares, publicly administered (regulated) prices (e.g., electricity and telephone fees),and the wages of industrial workers. Commenting on inflation, the Brazilian Minister of Planning, Paulo Bernardo, said inflation continues "absolutely under control" and that there is room for the Brazilian Central Bank (CB) to continue reducing interest rates. [Background Note: The IPCA serves as the primary benchmark for the GOB's inflation-targeting goal. It records the average of daily price variations in eleven major cities (Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, Belem, Fortaleza, Salvador, Curitiba, Brasilia, and Goiania). The IPCA statistical sample includes families with incomes between one and forty times the monthly minimum wage (i.e., up to approximately USD 3,880 in December 2005). End Background Note]. -------------- -- SAO PAULO INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION CLIMBED IN 2005 -------------- -- ¶4. The Sao Paulo Industrial Activity Index (INA),maintained by the Sao Paulo State Federation of Industries (FIESP),rose 1.8 percent in 2005 versus 9.2 percent in 2004. FIESP reported that the INA rose in December compared to November. Nevertheless, the Director of the Sao Paulo Industrial Center's Economic and Research Department, Boris Tabacof, said "2005 was not a slack year for Sao Paulo industry." According to Tabacof, "the sector only failed to expand because of the negative effects of the exchange rate and extremely high interest rates." He further noted that inflation has been under control and industrial prices were not responsible for causing undue pressure on the index. Therefore, Tabacof believes there is no justification for keeping interest rates prohibitively high, and he linked high interest rates to the country's insignificant growth rate. Despite a deceleration of industrial expansion, Tabacof feels that all factors that compose the indicator show positive results when compared to 2004. For example, hours worked in production increased 7.6 percent, real sales jumped by 13 percent, hours paid climbed 5.3 percent, and real salaries were up 11.3 percent. Among the explanations for the discrepancy in the numbers, Tabacof cited the decline of capacity utilization from 79.7 percent in 2004 to 78.5 percent in 2005. ¶5. A private sector industry analyst in Sao Paulo said that some sectors of industry are experiencing an increase in orders as retailers restock. The packaging industry (cans, boxes, labels, bottles, etc.) expects production to rise in the coming months as supermarkets replace depleted stocks of processed foods, cleaning supplies, and personal hygiene items. He cautioned, however, that sales will pick up slowly because workers are saving money in case they become jobless (see figures regarding increased unemployment below). Selected FIESP Data for 2005 SAO PAULO 00000258 003 OF 008 -------------- Percentage changes from 2004 to 2005: - Industrial Activity Level (1) 1.8 - Hours worked in production 7.6 - Real median salaries 6.7 - Real Sales 13.1 - Use of installed capacity 78.5 (data not seasonally adjusted) - (1)The activity level indicator (INA) is a composite of activity indicators including real sales, employment, hours worked in production, salaries, and capacity utilization. The INA index does not measure industrial production per se. -------------- - NATIONWIDE INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT INCREASED IN 2005 -------------- - ¶6. According to IBGE, Brazilian national industrial output grew a meager 0.6 percent in November. Compared to November 2004, industrial output also rose 0.6 percent. Cumulative output for January-November 2005 was up 3.1 percent from the same period a year earlier. Output for the 12-month period in November was up 3.5 percent but showed a declining trend compared to 4.1 percent expansion in the 12-month period to October 2004. ¶7. Industrial production increased in November in 15 of the 23 activities surveyed compared to October 2004. The best performances were registered by food products, up 2.2 percent; electrical machines and materials, up 5.3 percent; rubber and plastics, up 2.9 percent; and toiletries and household cleaning products, up 6.1 percent. Negative performances were registered by chemical products, down 1.9 percent; electronic materials and communication equipment, down 4.1 percent; petroleum refining and alcohol fuel production, down 1.5 percent; and tobacco, down 9.1 percent. Capital goods production continued to recover, climbing a healthy 2.2 percent from October's 4.2 percent decline. In comparison to the previous month, November 2005's intermediary goods output was up 0.2 percent and semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods rose 0.5 percent for the second consecutive month. A weak area was durable goods, where production fell 1.4 percent compared to October, suggesting that consumer credit growth has begun to slow down, after climbing 2.7 percent in October. ¶8. In the cumulative January-November period, total industrial output rose 3.1 percent compared to the same period of 2004, down slightly from an increase of 3.4 percent through October, compared with the same period a year earlier. Seventeen activities showed production expansion: Vehicle production, up 6.9 percent, maintained leadership in terms of impact on the general index. Other positive impacts were reported in the mining extraction industry, up 10.3 percent; electronic equipment and communications material, up 14.7 percent; and printing, up 11.1 percent. On the other hand, ten activities posted negative performance, with basic metal products registering the sharpest decline at 2.4 percent. ¶9. Industrial production increased in November in 8 of the 14 principal Brazilian regions compared to November of 2004. Pernambuco outperformed the national average, clocking 12.3 percent growth. Other states with growth exceeding the national average include Rio de Janeiro, up 4 percent; Minas Gerais, up 3.8 percent; Espirito Santo, up 1.5 percent; Bahia, up 1.1 percent; and Para, up 0.9 percent. The states in which output increased below the national average were the northeast region, up 0.5 percent; Sao Paulo, up 0.3 percent. Meanwhile, industrial production fell in Santa Catarina, down 2.2 percent; Amazonas, down 2.4 percent; Rio Grande do Sul, down 3.4 percent; Goias, down 3.7 percent; Ceara, down 6.2 percent; and Parana, down 10.4 percent. SAO PAULO 00000258 004 OF 008 ¶10. According to IBGE data released in the second week of February 2006, Brazilian industrial production rose 2.3 percent in December 2005 compared to the previous month. This is the best December result since 1991, and it signals that the manufacturing sector is recovering from a year-long slowdown. Sectors that performed exceptionally well were electronic materials and communications equipment, vehicles, pharmaceuticals, and machines and equipment. Also, December's output rose 3.2 percent compared to December 2004. Industrial output nationally climbed 3.1 percent in 2005. The Institute for Industrial Development Studies (IEDI) has projected 3.5 percent industrial expansion for 2006. On the other hand, the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA) predicted a 4.1 percent increase, while a study by Austin Ratings Consultancy in Sao Paulo has forecasted 4.7 percent industrial growth countrywide. These research institutes believe that greater expansion in demand for manufactured and semi-manufactured products and foods for the domestic and export markets will encourage industrial production. -------------- NATIONWIDE INDUSTRIAL SALES ROSE IN NOVEMBER -------------- ¶11. In November 2005, nationwide retail sales rose 0.26 percent in volume and 0.18 percent in nominal value compared to October, in the seasonally adjusted series. In the series without adjustment, sales in volume increased 4.87 percent compared to November 2004 and were up 4.82 the first eleven months of 2005. Sales in volume rose 5.53 percent in 12 months to November. In the same comparison, sales in nominal value climbed 8.78 percent compared to November 2004 and 10.51 percent in the first eleven months of 2005. Sales revenue rose 11.38 percent in the 12 months up to November. Four of eight activities showed positive performance while the other half posted negative performance. Activities that grew include household appliances, petroleum, and by-products. Supermarket sales, food products, cigarettes and beverages, clothing, and footwear posted negative results. In extended retail trade, vehicles, motorcycles, and parts grew 3.7 percent. -------------- -------------- SAO PAULO INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT INCREASED IN 2005 -------------- -------------- ¶12. A FIESP survey showed a 2.16 percent decline in Sao Paulo industrial employment in December for a loss of 45,818 jobs. Although the month of December always reflects a decline of industrial employment, this year's decline was higher than in the past four years. Paulo Francini, the Director of FIESP's Economic and Research Department, noted that December's industrial job creation was disappointing and well below the department's projections of 65,000 new jobs. Francini noted, "when the economy loses steam, everything else slows." According to Francini, the 2005 results show just how badly industrial production has been affected since the middle of 2005, due to "an overdose of an equivocal monetary policy." In a FIESP survey of the 47 industrial associations, 26 fired workers, 12 hired workers and nine reported no net gain or loss. The largest number of dismissals occurred in the fertilizers, footwear, and metal stamping industries. Most of the added workers were in the marble and granite, beverages, and animal rations (feed) industries. -------------- -------------- COUNTRYWIDE INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT DOWN IN NOVEMBER -------------- -------------- ¶13. According to IBGE data, nationwide industrial employment was down 0.6 percent in November over October. Nationwide industrial employment also fell 0.9 percent versus November 2004. Cumulative industrial employment was up 1.2 percent in the first eleven months SAO PAULO 00000258 005 OF 008 of 2005 and 1.5 percent in 12 months to November. Workers' wages fell 0.8 percent in November compared to October, but were up 2.2 percent from November a year ago. In the first eleven months of 2005 wages climbed 3.7 percent and 4.4 percent in the 12 months to November. -------------- --- DECEMBER UNEMPLOYMENT FALLS IN GREATER SAO PAULO -------------- --- ¶14. The total unemployment rate in the greater Sao Paulo area, calculated jointly by the Sao Paulo State Statistical Institute (SEADE) and the Labor Union-Funded Statistical and Research Center (DIEESE) fell to 15.8 percent in December from 16.4 percent in November. The Sao Paulo metropolitan area had over 1,607,000 workers looking for jobs in December compared to 1,648,000 workers in November. The number of unemployed fell 41,000 in December, as 163,000 new jobs created were more than sufficient to absorb 122,000 workers who entered the labor market. (Note: The SEADE/DIEESE index includes underemployed and discouraged workers and is therefore higher than the open market rate measured by IBGE. IBGE figures showed unemployment rate for greater Sao Paulo was 7.8 percent in December falling from 9.7 percent in November and 9.6 percent in October. End Note). The SEADE/DIEESE data showed that the unemployment rate in the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo rate fell for the fourth consecutive month in December to 15.8 from 17.1 percent in August. ¶15. Greater Sao Paulo's consumer population in December was estimated at 10,173,000, up slightly from 10,051,000 in November and 10,008,000 in October. Meanwhile, the number of persons employed in December was 8,566,000, up 1.9 percent from November. Of those persons employed in December, 1.68 million were industrial workers; 1.40 million worked in commerce/retail; 4.50 million were in the services sector; and 985,000 worked in other sectors including construction and household services. ¶16. The SEADE/DIEESE workforce statistics reflected the following performance by various sectors in December compared to November. Job Generation/Loss by Sector -------------- Industry 96 Services 99 Civil construction/household help 11 Commerce Retail 30 (Reported in thousands) Source: SEADE/DIEESE (Note: The SEADE/DIEESE survey results differ from FIESP's because SEADE/DIEESE limits its survey to the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo; is conducted among 3,600 assorted households, including self-employed and unregistered workers; and surveys different households each month. FIESP's survey covers the state of Sao Paulo; is limited to a fixed number of large industrial firms, which are surveyed every month; and excludes self-employed and unregistered workers. End Note.) -------------- -------------- NATIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT: STABLE IN NOVEMBER, FELL IN DECEMBER -------------- -------------- ¶17. According to a monthly survey carried out countrywide by IBGE in the six largest metropolitan regions (Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Salvador, and Recife),the overall unemployment rate for these regions in November continued stable (9.6 percent) for the fifth consecutive month, down one percent from November of 2004. Average real income increased 0.4 percent compared to the previous month and 2.1 percent compared to November ¶2004. ¶18. After remaining constant for six months, the unemployment rate SAO PAULO 00000258 006 OF 008 in December in the same six metropolitan regions fell to its lowest level (8.3 percent) since March 2002 and, for the first time, the number of unemployed persons remained below 2 million. The average real income of workers in December increased 1.8 percent compared to November and 5.8 percent versus December 2004. Compared to November, unemployment fell in Sao Paulo from 9.7 percent to 7.8 percent; Belo Horizonte from 8.2 percent to 7.0 percent; and in Rio de Janeiro from 7.7 percent to 6.8 percent. The other regions were stable. The size of the workforce in the six metropolitan regions was 20.2 million persons in December, the same number reported for November, but 2.4 percent higher than December 2004. The average real income in December was up 1.8 percent compared to November and up 5.8 percent from December 2004. -------------- -------------- VEHICLE INDUSTRY BOASTS RECORD PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS -------------- -------------- ¶19. According to the Brazilian Vehicle Manufacturers' Association (ANFAVEA),the Brazilian vehicle industry set record high production and exports in 2005, for the second consecutive year. Production of all vehicles in 2005 was up 10.7 percent to 2.45 million units compared to the previous year. Similarly, sales of autos, buses, and trucks rose 8.6 percent to 1.71 million units and vehicle export earnings totaled USD 11.2 billion, up 33.5 percent. This was an all-time high for vehicles exported in any one year. ANFAVEA said that auto industry successes in 2005 were largely due to dramatic increases in export sales, rather than domestic sales, which remained below the all-time high of 1997. ¶20. Auto industry sources predict a 5 percent increase in production and a 7 percent increase in domestic sales for 2006. At the same time, export sales in value are not expected to grow more than 3 percent. ANFAVEA believes that 2006 will be a difficult year for the Brazilian vehicle industry due to the overvalued Brazilian currency, which has significantly reduced competitiveness in foreign markets. In addition, the domestic market is hampered by the world's highest interest rates. [Note: The Brazilian Central Bank's overnight lending rate (SELIC) was recently reduced from 17.25 to 16.5 percent. End Note.] During a recent visit to Ford Motor Company, Ford's corporate director and president of ANFAVEA, Rogelio Golfarb, said that investments in Brazil over the last decade modernized auto plants to enable them to compete in foreign countries. Investment allowed manufacturers to introduce new technology, increase competitiveness, and launch new vehicle models. One retail sales representative cited the high cost of borrowing money, unbearably high taxes for car buyers, and high labor costs as barriers to increasing domestic sales. ¶21. Nonetheless, data released by ANFAVEA in January 2006 surprised everyone. ANFAVEA said that never before had the auto sector produced and exported so much in January. Domestic sales also showed growth. Vehicle sales increased 20 percent in January 2006 compared to the same month a year earlier led by VW and followed by GM, Fiat, and Ford. Golfarb attributed it to recent projections for a stable scenario for the Brazilian economy (sustained low inflation) and declining risk for foreign investors in 2006. Nonetheless, some manufacturers including GM predicted that exports will reduce substantially this year to due the appreciation of the Brazilian currency and as a result of stiff competition from other vehicle-exporting countries. In Brazil, the automotive industry accounts for nearly 11 percent of industrial GDP. Brazilian automotive production and distribution support over 500,000 direct jobs and more than 760,000 indirect jobs. -------------- BRAZILIAN FLEX-FUEL ENGINES A GREAT SUCCESS -------------- ¶22. Flex-fuel vehicle engines were first manufactured and SAO PAULO 00000258 007 OF 008 introduced into the Brazilian market in 2003. In 2005, no less than 10 new vehicle models were running with the use of this new technology. Flex-fuel engines can be fueled by gasoline, by alcohol, or by any mixture of the two. In December 2005, sales of such units set a new record. ANFAVEA said December flex-fuel car sales totaled 183,600 units, up 16 percent from November. Flex-fuel car sales are growing fast and accounted for 70 percent of total vehicle sales in December, compared to 29 percent in December 2004. In 2005, sales of new flex-fuel vehicles totaled more than one million units. Among Brazil's 10 largest assemblers, GM, Ford, VW, Renault, Peugeot, and Fiat are the principal manufacturers of cars using flex-fuel technology. -------------- -------------- BRAZIL'S TRADE SURPLUS EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS IN 2005 -------------- -------------- ¶23. In 2005, Brazil outperformed expectations by registering a trade surplus of USD 44.8 billion. Projections at the beginning of the year estimated a surplus of not more than USD 28.5 bllion. Export sales in 2005 reached new highs toaling USD 118.3 billion, up 22.6 percent from th previous year. Manufactured goods propelled ovrall exports with an increase of 23 percent compare to 2004, followed by exports of primary and sem-manufactured products. All three categories reistered historical highs. A breakdown shows tha oil and by-products, transportation equipment and material, mineral metals, metal products, and eletronic equipment were the key export products reponsible for the 2005 export performance. ¶24. On the other hand, imports totaled USD 73.5 billin in 2005, up 17.1 percent. All import categoris reported increases: capital goods rose 26.9 percent, consumer goods were up 23.7 percent, fuel and lubricants climbed 15.7 percent, and raw materials and intermediate goods posted 12.6 percent growth. Import demand for raw materials, intermediate goods, and capital goods were the main items that increased total imports. ¶25. Preliminary data released by IBGE showed a trade surplus of USD 2.8 billion in January 2006. This result derived from exports worth USD 9.3 billion and imports of USD 6.4 billion. According to the Ministry of Industry and Foreign Trade, the January 2006 surplus is 30 percent higher than in January of the previous year. In the 12 months to January 2006, total exports rose 22.4 percent, reaching USD 120 billion. Over the same period, imports climbed 17 percent to USD 74.7 billion, resulting in a surplus of USD 45.4 billion. While the Brazilian currency remains overvalued, Brazil's trade balance sets new records each month. The markets are projecting a trade surplus of USD 40.0 billion for 2006. -------------- BRAZIL'S FDI HIGHER THAN EXPECTED IN 2005 -------------- ¶26. The Chief of the Brazilian Central Bank's Economic Studies Department (DEPEC),Altamir Lopes, reported net FDI closed December with inflows of USD 1.4 billion. For 2005 as a whole, FDI inflows totaled USD 15.2 billion, down 16.4 percent versus inflows in 2004, but nonetheless higher than the USD 10-12 billion projected. Brazil placed eleventh in global FDI rankings. [Note: 2004 FDI figures were inflated by Belgian brewer Interbrew's acquisition of Brazilian brewery AMBEV for USD 4.9 billion. This acquisition alone accounted for 27 percent of Brazil's 2004 FDI inflows of USD 17.7 billion. End Note.] The Brazilian Central Bank kept to its December forecast of USD 16 billion FDI in 2006. The U.S. was the principal origin of FDI in 2005 with a contribution of 21.5 percent followed by Holland, 14.8 percent; Mexico, 7.7 percent; France, 6.7 percent; Canada, 6.6 percent; Germany, 6.4 percent; Spain, 5.6 percent; Cayman Islands, 5.0 percent; Australia, 4.0 percent; Japan, 3.6 percent; and others 18.1 percent. FDI inflow in 2005 was distributed in the following SAO PAULO 00000258 008 OF 008 sectors and proportions: Services, 59.7 percent; Industry, 30.2 percent; and agriculture and mineral extraction, 10.1 percent. -------------- BRAZIL POSTS CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS IN 2005 -------------- ¶27. According to data released by the Brazilian Central Bank, current account transactions registered a surplus of USD 570 million in December compared to compared to 1.7 billion in November. In 2005 as a whole, current accounts closed with a cumulative positive balance of USD 14.2 billion, the highest value ever registered and the third straight year of surpluses. This was equivalent to 1.79 percent of GDP, as compared to USD 11.7 billion and 1.94 percent of GDP in 2004. The big contributor to the 2005 surplus was trade in goods. While the Brazilian Central Bank has projected a USD 6.1 billion current account surplus for 2006, the market consensus is that the surplus will reach USD 9 billion. ¶28. This message was coordinated with Embassy Brasilia. MCMULLEN