MEDIA REACTION: IRAQ STUDY GROUP REPORT; WESTERN

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 001248 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD DEPT PASS USTR USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: IRAQ STUDY GROUP REPORT; WESTERN HEMISPHERE: PINOCHET'S DEATH; SAO PAULO ¶1. "Exit Door" Liberal, largest national circulation daily Folha de S. Paulo editorialized (12/10): "The Iraq Study Group report clearly says that the situation is bad and that there is not much one can do to improve it.... The document is an opportunity for the White House to change the focus of its policy and prepare the withdrawal, a graceful exit, as the US media says. The question is to know whether President Bush will grab it. So far, indications have been ambiguous. Bush continues to say that the US will remain in Iraq 'until the victory' - something that the report discards as a feasible goal - but he has already removed the Secretary of Defense who planned the invasion, and replaced him with Robert Gates, who has a very critical view of the situation. Bush maintains that he will not negotiate with Iran or Syria directly, but has already authorized Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki to call a regional peace conference, an event that would put Washington in contact with Tehran and Damascus. Everything indicates that without admitting that the Iraqi adventure was a disaster, Bush is willing to adopt a damage reduction policy. It is possible, however, that it is too late for Iraq. The invasion launched Iraq into a civil war that is expected to prolong for years. If the US troops leave Iraq in a hurry it is possible that the nation will fragment into smaller states. The only certainty is that the intervention, whose only goal was to democratize and pacify the Middle East, has become another focus of tensions and terror." ¶2. "Bush's Chance To Save Face" The lead editorial in cener-right national circulation daily O Estado de S. Paulo (12/8) underscored: The Iraq Study Group report giver President Bush everything he could hope for if he has a spark of common sense: bipartisan political support to terminate his [Iraqi] adventure before leaving the White House in January 2009. The report is highly realistic: it does not see any possibility of a proud US withdrawal or civilized Ira after that, in addition to condemning the conduction of the post war period. It recognizes that there is no hypothesis for Washington to win by the force the insurrection against the occupation.... The Group supports the participation of both Iran and Syria in the process, and goes deep into the problem by indicating that without fostering peace between Israelis and Palestinians, involving Syrians and Lebanese, nothing good will happen in the Middle East. The report does not leave room for misunderstandings. Its intention is to pave the way to prevent the worst - a bloodshed tending to spread as result of an intervention, in opposite fields, of Saudi Arabia and Iran, and possibly Turkey, thereby inexorably involving the 140,000 US troops who are already cornered and disoriented midst the chaos (already longer that the US involvement in the WWII).... But Bush's initial reaction to the document was only tepid.... Actually, Bush does not need to surrender. It will be sufficient just by continuing saying the wrong things, and allowing the right thing to be done that he can save face." ¶3. "Two Pinochet periods - One Alive, Another Dead" Political columnist Clovis Rossi wrote in liberal, largest national circulation daily Folha de S. Paulo (12/11): "Pinochet, synonymous with human rights violations and disrespect to public liberties and civil rights, has fortunately disappeared from Latin America. The fact that Pinochet died in the same month that concluded a successful electoral cycle in the region - the civilized way of resolving political or ideological differences - is a pleasant coincidence. It is true that in the recent series of elections, voters elected in some cases caudillo candidates such as Venezuelan Hugo Chvez and Bolivian Evo Morales. But regardless of totalitarian temptations, the fact is that there are no political prisoners in Venezuela or Bolivia, the media is free, the political parties are working regularly, the elections were considered free and fair by foreign observers - everything contrary to what happened in Pinochet's Chile." Wolfe