MEDIA REACTION: U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS, RUMSFELD'S

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 001183 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD DEPT PASS USTR USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS, RUMSFELD'S RESIGNATION; SAO PAULO ¶1. "Bush's Defeat" Liberal, largest national circulation daily Folha de S. Paulo editorialized (11/9): "The message sent by the ballots couldn't be clearer: American voters are very unhappy with the prolonged disaster produced by the Bush administration in Iraq and the series of scandals involving Republican congressmen. The Bush administration enjoys today only 35% of popular support mainly because of the erosion in the Middle East. As a direct and immediate consequence of the electoral defeat, Donald Rumsfeld, the 'architect' of the Iraqi quagmire, was fired yesterday.... The mid term election' returns are much more a Republican defeat than a Democratic victory.... If the democrats achieve the control of both the House and the Senate, they may create enormous difficulties for the Bush administration, especially in foreign trade. If they win only in the House, their power will be limited. The greatest importance of Tuesday's elections is in the fact that it was a rehearsal for the 2008 presidential elections.... During the next two years, the Democrats will try to take even more advantage of Bush's popular rejection. The Republicans will review the causes that led to the electoral defeat so as to try another term. Whoever is more convincing in presenting a plan to leave Iraq will probably be in an advantageous position." ¶2. "Light At The End Of The Iraqi Tunnel" An editorial in center-right O Estado de S. Paulo (11/9) remarked: "Political disasters seldom have a sole cause, and what has just happened with the Republican Party is a clear evidence of that. It is a fact that the Bush administration's defeat in the midterm elections is mainly due to the Iraq factor.... But two other grave situations that cannot be underestimated were added to it. First, the late but unequivocal repudiation by a large portion of the voters to what the Republicans perpetrated in their recent 12-year period of practically uninterrupted predominance in both the Senate and the House.... The leaders of the administration's party guaranteed to the current Congress the deplorable distinction of being the most retrograde, corrupt, demoralized and submissive to the White House that one can remember. The second additional reason for the Republican defeat was the public condemnation of the administration's total dominance of the domestic agenda.... It is expected from the Democrats that they show how to switch on the light at the end of the Iraqi tunnel. Incidentally, such a light has already been lit with Donald Rumsfeld's resignation, the first consequence of the Democratic victory." ¶3. "Bush And Brazil" Political columnist Eliane Cantanhede wrote in liberal, largest national circulation daily Folha de S. Paulo (11/9): "Since trade logic does not always correspond to political positions, Brazil wanted the Republicans to win the U.S midterm elections and was already deploring their forecasted defeat. George W. Bush has his own faults, but the Lula administration no longer wants to discuss the invasion of Iraq, excesses in the security area, the fall of Donald Rumsfeld.... What interested the GOB was a Bush strong enough to resume well the WTO negotiations with developing agricultural exporting nations like Brazil. Pragmatically, Brazil wanted Bush to have defeated the Democrats and kept the majority in the Congress so as to advance the negotiations. The GOB, especially the Lula administration, has more ideological differences with the Republicans, who are more conservative in politics and in their relations with the world. But Brazil knows that the in the trade area the Democrats are more protectionist: they fiercely defend domestic interests, US companies and producers to the detriment of partners. The discretely pro-Republicans Brazilian posture coincided with that of many of its neighbors - obviously with the exceptions of Venezuela and Bolivia - and that of the European Union." McMullen