Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06SAOPAULO1136
2006-10-24 11:48:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Consulate Sao Paulo
Cable title:
MEDIA REACTION: IRAQ: IRAQI STUDY GROUP, SECTARIAN
how-toVZCZCXYZ0007 OO RUEHWEB DE RUEHSO #1136 2971148 ZNR UUUUU ZZH O 241148Z OCT 06 FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5975 INFO RHEHNSC/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC IMMEDIATE RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 7036 RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO PRIORITY 7549 RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 2602
UNCLAS SAO PAULO 001136
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD
DEPT PASS USTR
USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: IRAQ: IRAQI STUDY GROUP, SECTARIAN
VIOLENCE; SAO PAULO
"Iraq Runs The Risk Of Territorial Split"
Business-oriented Valor Economico (10/24) editorialized: "The Iraqi
civil war has begun to outline a geographic split and disintegrate
the nation into Shiite, Sunni and Kurd enclaves.... There are
confrontations everywhere, forcing the migration of hundreds of
thousands of Iraqis looking for protection of their communities....
Nuri al Maliki's Shiite government has become incapable of
controlling anything.... Without disarming the militia, the Iraqi
state has no means of survival.... This is far from happening
despite the US reiterated hopes of a quick improvement of the
situation. On the contrary, what one can see is an acute
deterioration of the political condition and of the people's life.
The intensification of violence has cost President George W. Bush
dearly. The Republicans, who run the risk of losing the majority in
both the House and the Senate, have shown increasing
dissatisfaction. Apparently Bush does not have a B plan to face the
situation and is resisting pressures to establish a deadline to
withdraw US troops.... Another possibility, that is gaining support
in Washington, is to yield to the uncontrollable wave of violence
and accept the division of Iraq among Shiites, Kurds and Sunnis, as
a congressional committee co-chaired by former Secstate James Baker
suggested.... To ratify such a situation would be an open admission
of total defeat of the US plans for Iraq as well as a recipe for
chaos.... Such a scenario has tragic similarities with the Lebanese
civil war, and nothing good can be expected from it.... The
political momentum for Bush to increase the number of soldiers in
Iraq is already over, and he will hardly try to do that. On the
other hand, however, to withdraw the troops would be a shameful
bloodshed.... Once opened, there is no means to close the Iraqi
Pandora's Box."
McMullen