DOMINICAN ELECTIONS 2006 SERIES #1: LOOKING TOWARD

UNCLAS SANTO DOMINGO 000508

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, WHA/EPSC, INR/IAA;
USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD; TREASURY FOR OASIA-J LEVINE;
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION;
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH; DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV DR
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTIONS 2006 SERIES #1: LOOKING TOWARD
THE MAY 16 ELECTIONS



1. (SBU) This is the first cable in a series reporting on
the upcoming elections in the Dominican Republic .

Election Series #1: Looking Toward the May 16 Elections
-------------- --------------

On May 16 Dominican voters will choose all 32 senators, 178
representatives (up from the current 150 members of the lower
house of congress),and 2228 municipal mayors and city
council members to serve from 2006-2010. The two major
opposition parties will present a unified list in 25 of the
32 provinces. The three major political parties and 21 minor
ones await distribution of 593 million pesos (17 million
dollars) in public funding for their campaigns. Only the
ruling PLD has announced its candidates, but no matter - the
Central Election Board (JCE) on January 26 declared the
campaign open, and candidates' caravanas hit the streets
almost immediately.

Only a year and a half ago President Fernandez defeated
incumbent Hipolito Mejia by 57 percent to 34 percent. The
Dominican Republic is again working up its pre-electoral
emotions, though not to the fever pitch of that presidential
contest.

The Stakes
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For both the government and the opposition, the strategic
objective will be to control congress and as many of the 151
municipal governments as possible. Twenty-six new
municipalities have been created since 2002. The opposition
PRD now holds most senate seats, a plurality of the lower
house, more than two-thirds of the mayoral positions, and
many of the city council seats. The partisan split between
the executive and legislative branches since Fernandez took
office has slowed approvals of needed fiscal reforms and
DR-CAFTA ratification. Relations between the National Palace
and city halls have frayed over the past 18 months, leading
to a testy confrontation in January over mayors'
accountability for their use of funds provided by the central
government. Fernandez had similar trouble with cohabitation
in his 1996-2000 term; his popularity sank and the PLD
candidate to succeed him in the 2000 election placed third.

A New Litmus Test: Pink vs. Purple
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Pink. The PRD and PRSC have decided they can best recover
from their 2004 defeat by combining forces to protect their
legislative and municipal turf. The PRD anticipates some
erosion, but expects to retain a majority in the Senate and a
plurality in the House of Representatives and many local
offices. The PRSC, which sank to less than 9% of the
national vote in 2004, simply hopes to survive as a political
force. Both suffer from divided leadership. Both fear the
PLD will use government resources to boost its candidates'
appeal, as Mejia's PRD did in 2004. The antidote is the
"pink alliance" of the white PRD and red PRSC, a complex
accord to run common candidates for most of the jobs up for
election. The unprecedented coalition of these historical
adversaries will, they hope, enable them to shape the
legislative agenda and compel more government cooperation
with the opposition's city halls.

PRD secretary general Orlando Jorge Mera and PRSC secretary
general Vctor Gomez Casanova, younger politicos with a
modern aura, have worn down entrenched local party chiefs and

fended off misgivings of prominent elders including PRSC
president Federico "Quique" Antun Batlle. Leaders of both
parties say the alliance is a fait accompli soon to be
formalized and notified to the JCE by March 2, the deadline
for registering party alliances. PRD president Ramon
Alburquerque and Jorge Mera have been consistently positive
about the alliance. The PRSC's favorable decision at an
assembly January 29 is being viewed as a victory not only for
Gomez Casanova but also for his political mentor, influential
Dominican Municipal League boss Amable Aristy Castro )
reputed to be seeking a presidential candidacy in 2008.

The alliance accord will include running common candidates
for all elected positions in the National District and 26 of
the 31 provinces, according to Aristy Castro and Gomez
Casanova. In three provinces, the parties will run their
candidates independently; in one province, there will be
common candidates only at the congressional level; in one
more, only the municipal candidacies will be in common. Both
parties have to convince local cadres to abandon their
preferred candidates ) many of them close friends or
relatives -- and support former political adversaries.
National leaders are betting that most of the disgruntled
will jump on the train as the campaign gets underway and that
the recalcitrant will forgo the elections rather than bolt to
the PLD. The alliance is to be signed February 10 and
launched at a ceremony February 28.

That said, the alliance is likely to fail in a few localities
and lose some influential dropouts. For example, followers
of a PRD mayor in the capital suburb of Boca Chica have
protested vocally and visibly at national party meetings. We
have been told that even where both parties support a popular
mayor as the alliance candidate, for example in Santo Domingo
North, we have been told that PRD members will refuse to vote
for PRSC candidates for the House of Representatives.
Prominent Reformistas Hector Rodriguez Pimentel and Angel
Lockward have publicly opposed the alliance and say they and
five other PRSC leaders will ally with the PLD. These
dissidents could link up with senior PRSC figures in the
Fernandez administration, led by Foreign Minister Carlos
Morales Troncoso.

To its detractors, the alliance is an undignified scheme to
hand out opportunities for power and graft, in disregard of
public interest. The secretaries general have insisted to us
that it is about more than patronage and personal ambition;
their parties are preparing a "national agenda." Drafters
include PRD intellectuals ex-labor minister Milton Ray
Guevara, ex-education minister Yvelisse Prats de Perez, and
ex-director Tirso Mejia Ricart; for the PRSC, Amable Aristy
Castro, representative Licelott Marte de Barrios, and
ex-Central Bank governor Luis Toral.

Purple: The Government,s Opening Shots.
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In a speech before PLD party members on February 5, President
Fernandez shifted from his accustomed professorial discourse
into impassioned, raised-fist rhetoric; he denounced the
alliance for promoting "ungovernability" and "instability"
and trying to impose "the tyranny of the majority" in
congress. "He's running scared," clucked the media and the
opposition. Some predicted that the president's undeniably
high poll ratings might not translate into votes for PLD
candidates. But others have advised us not to underestimate
the PLD's doctrine of discipline, a holdover from its leftist
past.

In a campaign ad February 9, the PLD requested voters'
support to prevent the return of "the shameless ones" who
were fingered as responsible for high unemployment,
inflation, devaluation, ruin of small businesses,
international debt, and bank failures during the past
administration; whose U.S. visas have been revoked for
suspected corruption; and who spent more than 20 billion
pesos (570 million dollars) in municipal funds "without
accomplishing anything." Indeed, the PRD's biggest liability
this election season is public discontent with the lingering
effects of the nation,s 2003-04 financial crisis.

Races to Watch
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Two noteworthy races may reveal the strengths and weaknesses
on both sides. In the mayor's race in Santo Domingo National
District (capital city center),effective and popular PLD
mayor Roberto Salcedo is being challenged for his job by
politically skillful and well-regarded speaker of the House
of Representatives Alfredo Pacheco (PRD). Salcedo has the
advantage of an incumbent with high approval ratings, but
Pacheco grew up in Santo Domingo's barrios, has
Afro-Dominican ancestry, and is viewed as a "man of the
pueblo" in contrast to the middle-class mayor. Thanks to his
congressional leadership, Pacheco has good relations with the
government and the major parties. He conducted his first
campaign activity virtually devoid of PRD flags or symbols,
to dissociate himself from the Mejia debacle. In fact,
Pacheco was never close to Mejia and opposed his wishes on
several occasions. If Pacheco wins, he would boost his
potential as a possible future presidential candidate.

The other bellwether campaign is the senate race in Santiago,
the northern regional capital. Attorney General Dominguez
Brito, the PLD's candidate for senator from this politically
important province, is trying for this seat a second time )
having been deprived of victory in 2002 by PRD-engineered
shenanigans, say many of our contacts. One of Fernandez's
most effective ministers, Dominguez Brito credibly aspires to
become a future presidential candidate. The self-proclaimed
opposition alliance candidate (to be confirmed) is PRD elder
Jose Rafael Abinader, a university rector, businessman, and
unsuccessful pre-candidate for president in 2004. With his
wealth, PRD following, and expected support of the locally
strong PRSC, he would be a credible contender.


2. (U) Drafted by Bainbridge Cowell


3. (U) This piece and others in our series can be consulted
at our SIPRNET web site
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo) along with
extensive other material.
HERTELL