DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FOREIGN MINISTER DISCUSSES HAITI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANTO DOMINGO 000409



SIPDIS



SIPDIS



STATE FOR WHA/CAR-NICHOLS, SEARBY; INR/SAA-BEN-YEHUDA



E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/07/2016

TAGS: PREL, DR, HA

SUBJECT: DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FOREIGN MINISTER DISCUSSES HAITI



REF: SANTO DOMINGO 0171



Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Lisa Kubiske. Reason: 1.4(b) and (d).



1. (C) Summary and comment. In a February 6 meeting

requested by Charge Kubiske to underscore USG concerns about

the possible return of Duvalier to Haiti, Dominican Foreign

Minister Carlos Morales Troncoso said he had warned the

Dominican embassy in Port-au-Prince and others to keep

Duvalier out of the Dominican Republic and agreed that

Duvalier,s (and Aristide,s) presence could be unhelpful.

He said the Dominican Government,s highest interest was for

peaceful, legitimate elections, so that the two governments

-- his and the newly elected Haitian one -- could resume

regular discussions on issues of mutual concern such as

migration. He looked forward to working with whoever wins,

and expected a Preval victory on the first round. Comment:

We found Morales Troncoso current and engaged on Haiti, with

plans to be immediately available to handle any developments

that might arise. Morales Troncoso appeared understanding

and supportive of our concern about any possible Duvalier

return to Haiti. End summary and comment.



2. (C) Charge Kubiske, accompanied by poloff, met February

6 with Dominican Foreign Minister Carlos Morales Troncoso to

discuss the outlook for the Haitian elections and aftermath,

and, in particular, to re-alert the Dominican government to

USG concerns about a possible return of Duvalier to Haiti.

Morales noted several recent conversations with OAS Secretary

General Insulza and UN SRSG Valdez, as well as with senior

officials in the Dominican embassy in Port-au-Prince, among

others.





Duvalier,s Return to Haiti "Unhelpful"

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -



3. (C) Kubiske expressed USG concern over a return to

Haiti of either Duvalier or Aristide. Both potentially were

provocative and could complicate the ability of any new

government to establish itself. If the election were

inconclusive, a return of either one could certainly make

things worse. We thought that neither should be allowed back

into Haiti until a newly established, functioning democratic

government could make a decision itself. Kubiske recalled

President Fernandez, January 11 conversation with WHA DAS

Patrick Duddy in which Fernandez himself had agreed that

Duvalier,s arrival in Haiti around the time of the elections

would be detrimental and that Duvalier should not be

permitted to return via the Dominican Republic (reftel).



4. (C) Morales Troncoso agreed that Aristide and Duvalier

supporters would get upset if their opponents returned to the

scene. Anti-Duvalier Haitians might seek revenge, even

after 20 years, he noted. He said he had warned the

Dominican embassy in Port-au-Prince among others against

Duvalier coming to or through the Dominican Republic.

Reminded by Kubiske about past Dominican government tolerance

of the presence of Haitian activists on Dominican soil,

Morales Troncoso did not expect Duvalier to live in the

Dominican Republic.



5. (C) For this week, Morales Troncoso said the most

important thing is that everyone votes on February 7 and that

the vote is legitimate. He added, "Anything we can do, we

will do, toward this end." Kubiske suggested that the

Dominican Government make clear that it doesn,t see Duvalier

as helpful to Haiti. He strongly agreed: "In fact,

unhelpful," he replied. Kubiske clarified that the message

should be that Duvalier was "not welcome" from a Dominican

perspective.





Election Day Outlook Good

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -



6. (C) Morales Troncoso noted his brief conversation with

OAS Secretary General Insulza at the airport earlier in the

day and his various conversations with the Dominican

Port-au-Prince senior staff. He reported that Insulza

sounded optimistic about the prospects for the Haitian

elections and that his staff reported that the situation was

calm as of 6:00 pm February 6. Washington is also

optimistic, though we can never rule out entirely some

potential problems, Kubiske noted. The foreign minister

agreed, saying "You can,t rule out anything on Haiti." He

confirmed that the Dominican Government had put more troops

along the Dominican-Haitian border as a matter of preparing

for a worst-case scenario. Morales said he had cleared his

February 7 calendar of most events, in case something

developed that would need his attention.



7. (C) FM Morales Troncoso thought Preval could win on the

first round, though he noted that Haiti is very

unpredictable. He expected low turnout for the elections;

"30 percent would be great."





Working with a New Haitian Government

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -



8. (C) Morales Troncoso said that the Dominican Government

would be able to work with any of the candidates. Overall,

the Dominican Republic wanted to be able to co-exist well

with its island neighbor. As for specific candidates,

Morales Troncoso was especially optimistic about Preval or

Baker. With Preval, he expected that the Dominican

Government could make use of the DR-Haiti bi-national

commission. (Note: In the past, the two governments have

been able to use the commission for migration issues, among

other things.) He characterized Preval as quiet and

professional. Morales Troncoso didn,t know Baker, but noted

that the Dominican consul general in Port-au-Prince, Carlos

Castillo, thinks highly of him. As for Manigat, Morales

Troncoso thought he was a "nice guy." They had gotten to

know each other after the Dominican government put him up in

a hotel when Manigat was removed from the presidency in the

1980s.



9. (C) Morales Troncoso said that the Core Group on Haiti,

including OAS Secretary General Insulza, had decided to

postpone its meeting here from last week until March 5. The

postponement would allow for organizing a more public event

and discussing the post-election situation. The foreign

minister also mentioned a project the Dominican government

had been developing for Haitian students in the Dominican

Republic. He thought the Dominican government could help

Haiti with education and health. The project had been

postponed while the IGOH was in power, but he hoped to resume

it soon after the elections.





Comment

- - - - - - -



10. (C) We found Morales Troncoso current and engaged on

Haiti, with plans to be immediately available to handle any

developments that might arise. Morales Troncoso appeared

understanding and supportive of our concern about any

possible Duvalier return to Haiti. End comment.





Biographic Notes on Dominican-Haitian Diplomatic Dealings

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - -



11. (C) Kubiske asked about the new Haitian ambassador in

Santo Domingo, Fritz Cineas. Cineas and his family, the

foreign minister noted, were Duvalier supporters; the new

ambassador, in fact, had been a young private secretary to

Papa Doc Duvalier. Morales Troncoso characterized Cineas as

a good man, a moderate, open and transparent. He had medical

training and ample experience in diplomacy. The foreign

minister didn,t know how long Cineas would keep this new

job, since the outcome was likely to depend on the elections.



12. (C) As for the Dominican embassy in Port-au-Prince,

Morales Troncoso noted he speaks with both Ambassador Jose

Serulle Ramia, whom he once tried to remove from his position

and still dislikes, and with Consul General Carlos Castillo.

He acknowledged that he depends more on Castillo. Serulle,

he said, is a friend of Preval,s, while Castillo is in touch

with Baker.

KUBISKE