1. (C) Summary and comment. In a February 6 meeting
requested by Charge Kubiske to underscore USG concerns about
the possible return of Duvalier to Haiti, Dominican Foreign
Minister Carlos Morales Troncoso said he had warned the
Dominican embassy in Port-au-Prince and others to keep
Duvalier out of the Dominican Republic and agreed that
Duvalier,s (and Aristide,s) presence could be unhelpful.
He said the Dominican Government,s highest interest was for
peaceful, legitimate elections, so that the two governments
-- his and the newly elected Haitian one -- could resume
regular discussions on issues of mutual concern such as
migration. He looked forward to working with whoever wins,
and expected a Preval victory on the first round. Comment:
We found Morales Troncoso current and engaged on Haiti, with
plans to be immediately available to handle any developments
that might arise. Morales Troncoso appeared understanding
and supportive of our concern about any possible Duvalier
return to Haiti. End summary and comment.

2. (C) Charge Kubiske, accompanied by poloff, met February
6 with Dominican Foreign Minister Carlos Morales Troncoso to
discuss the outlook for the Haitian elections and aftermath,
and, in particular, to re-alert the Dominican government to
USG concerns about a possible return of Duvalier to Haiti.
Morales noted several recent conversations with OAS Secretary
General Insulza and UN SRSG Valdez, as well as with senior
officials in the Dominican embassy in Port-au-Prince, among
others.


Duvalier,s Return to Haiti "Unhelpful"
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

3. (C) Kubiske expressed USG concern over a return to
Haiti of either Duvalier or Aristide. Both potentially were
provocative and could complicate the ability of any new
government to establish itself. If the election were
inconclusive, a return of either one could certainly make
things worse. We thought that neither should be allowed back
into Haiti until a newly established, functioning democratic
government could make a decision itself. Kubiske recalled
President Fernandez, January 11 conversation with WHA DAS
Patrick Duddy in which Fernandez himself had agreed that
Duvalier,s arrival in Haiti around the time of the elections
would be detrimental and that Duvalier should not be
permitted to return via the Dominican Republic (reftel).

4. (C) Morales Troncoso agreed that Aristide and Duvalier
supporters would get upset if their opponents returned to the
scene. Anti-Duvalier Haitians might seek revenge, even
after 20 years, he noted. He said he had warned the
Dominican embassy in Port-au-Prince among others against
Duvalier coming to or through the Dominican Republic.
Reminded by Kubiske about past Dominican government tolerance
of the presence of Haitian activists on Dominican soil,
Morales Troncoso did not expect Duvalier to live in the
Dominican Republic.

5. (C) For this week, Morales Troncoso said the most
important thing is that everyone votes on February 7 and that
the vote is legitimate. He added, "Anything we can do, we
will do, toward this end." Kubiske suggested that the
Dominican Government make clear that it doesn,t see Duvalier
as helpful to Haiti. He strongly agreed: "In fact,
unhelpful," he replied. Kubiske clarified that the message
should be that Duvalier was "not welcome" from a Dominican
perspective.


Election Day Outlook Good
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

6. (C) Morales Troncoso noted his brief conversation with
OAS Secretary General Insulza at the airport earlier in the
day and his various conversations with the Dominican
Port-au-Prince senior staff. He reported that Insulza
sounded optimistic about the prospects for the Haitian
elections and that his staff reported that the situation was
calm as of 6:00 pm February 6. Washington is also
optimistic, though we can never rule out entirely some
potential problems, Kubiske noted. The foreign minister
agreed, saying "You can,t rule out anything on Haiti." He
confirmed that the Dominican Government had put more troops
along the Dominican-Haitian border as a matter of preparing
for a worst-case scenario. Morales said he had cleared his
February 7 calendar of most events, in case something
developed that would need his attention.

7. (C) FM Morales Troncoso thought Preval could win on the
first round, though he noted that Haiti is very
unpredictable. He expected low turnout for the elections;
"30 percent would be great."


Working with a New Haitian Government
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

8. (C) Morales Troncoso said that the Dominican Government
would be able to work with any of the candidates. Overall,
the Dominican Republic wanted to be able to co-exist well
with its island neighbor. As for specific candidates,
Morales Troncoso was especially optimistic about Preval or
Baker. With Preval, he expected that the Dominican
Government could make use of the DR-Haiti bi-national
commission. (Note: In the past, the two governments have
been able to use the commission for migration issues, among
other things.) He characterized Preval as quiet and
professional. Morales Troncoso didn,t know Baker, but noted
that the Dominican consul general in Port-au-Prince, Carlos
Castillo, thinks highly of him. As for Manigat, Morales
Troncoso thought he was a "nice guy." They had gotten to
know each other after the Dominican government put him up in
a hotel when Manigat was removed from the presidency in the
1980s.

9. (C) Morales Troncoso said that the Core Group on Haiti,
including OAS Secretary General Insulza, had decided to
postpone its meeting here from last week until March 5. The
postponement would allow for organizing a more public event
and discussing the post-election situation. The foreign
minister also mentioned a project the Dominican government
had been developing for Haitian students in the Dominican
Republic. He thought the Dominican government could help
Haiti with education and health. The project had been
postponed while the IGOH was in power, but he hoped to resume
it soon after the elections.


Comment
- - - - - - -

10. (C) We found Morales Troncoso current and engaged on
Haiti, with plans to be immediately available to handle any
developments that might arise. Morales Troncoso appeared
understanding and supportive of our concern about any
possible Duvalier return to Haiti. End comment.


Biographic Notes on Dominican-Haitian Diplomatic Dealings
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - -

11. (C) Kubiske asked about the new Haitian ambassador in
Santo Domingo, Fritz Cineas. Cineas and his family, the
foreign minister noted, were Duvalier supporters; the new
ambassador, in fact, had been a young private secretary to
Papa Doc Duvalier. Morales Troncoso characterized Cineas as
a good man, a moderate, open and transparent. He had medical
training and ample experience in diplomacy. The foreign
minister didn,t know how long Cineas would keep this new
job, since the outcome was likely to depend on the elections.

12. (C) As for the Dominican embassy in Port-au-Prince,
Morales Troncoso noted he speaks with both Ambassador Jose
Serulle Ramia, whom he once tried to remove from his position
and still dislikes, and with Consul General Carlos Castillo.
He acknowledged that he depends more on Castillo. Serulle,
he said, is a friend of Preval,s, while Castillo is in touch
with Baker.
KUBISKE