DOMINICAN POLITICS III #4: THE PRSC IN DECLINE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANTO DOMINGO 003000

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, INR/IAA; USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD;
TREASURY FOR OASIA-JLEVINE; DEPT PASS USDA FOR FAS; USDOC
FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION; USDOC FOR
3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH; DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2016
TAGS: DR PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN POLITICS III #4: THE PRSC IN DECLINE

Classified By: Michael A. Meigs


1. This is the fourth cable in our series on Dominican
politics in the third year of the administration of President
Leonel Fernandez.

The PRSC in Decline
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(SBU) The Dominican Social Christian Reform Party (PRSC) is
badly split and in search of justification for its continued
existence. The Reformistas went down to humiliating defeat
in the 2006 congressional elections, in a failure of their
attempt to unite with the major opposition party, the PRD.
Polls show the PRSC with support of only about 9 percent of
the electorate, and much of that is in Altagracia, the
easternmost province in the country, the personal fief of the
PRSC,s Amable Aristy Castro.
(U) The PRSC was the personal vehicle of Joaquin Balaguer,
president of the Dominican Republic in his own right for 22
years. Balaguer's death in 2002 left the party with little
more than his empty image. In 2005 veteran PRSC politician
Enrique &Quique8 Antun Batlle became president of the party
and Victor Gmez Casanova, former head of the PRSC Youth
Organization, was elected to a four-year term as Secretary
General.
A Talk with the PRSC Secretary General
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(U) Gomez Casanova told political officers on September l8
that the PRSC is sliding toward irrelevancy. He was growing
increasingly concerned by the party,s internal conflicts.
(C) Gomez sees that the President Fernandez,s Dominican
Liberation Party (PLD) is successfully siphoning off
potential PRSC voters for the 2008 presidential election.
At the same time, self-inflicted blows marginalize the PRSC
among the populace. &The sad truth is that we have never
had an ideology; Reformistas traditionally have done anything
for money.8
(C) Gomez suggested that love of power and position enticed
PRSC defectors to important positions in the Fernandez
government. The highest-ranking PRSC member to defect,
Foreign Minister Carlos Morales Troncoso, did so in the
run-up to the 2004 presidential elections, President
Fernandez continues to co-opt PRSC adherents for relatively
high-ranking government positions. He recently put
disaffected PRSC leaders in as the head of the critically
important Energy Commission and also as director of the
National Housing Bank (Banco Nacional de la Vivienda).
(U) Far less subtle than the political appointments that buy
personal loyalty is Fernandez,s attempt to win popular
support among the roughly 9 percent of the populace that
voted PRSC in the presidential election of 2004. Most
recently, Fernandez staged a four-hour multi-media
extravaganza at the presidential palace to commemorate the
100th anniversary of Balaguer,s birth (ref). Speakers
including Fernandez himself focused on praising Balaguer-era
public works projects and conveniently omitted mention of the
persecutions and not infrequent assassination of leftists
under both Trujillo (for whom Balaguer served as titular
president) and Balaguer himself.
(U) The damage from Fernandez and PLD politicking pales in
comparison to that inflicted by a single individual
supposedly loyal to the PRSC party structure: Amable Aristy
Casto.

Amable Aristy Castro
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(C) In the 2006 Congressional elections, Amable Aristy Castro
once again stood for Senator from Higuey and once again won
with 60 percent support. What was remarkable, however, is
that he turned this elected position down, as he had already
done - - on two previous occasions - - in order to remain in
contention to succeed himself yet again as the director of
the Dominican Municipal League (LMD),the governmental
organization that acts as a conduit for annual central
government disbursements to the 150-plus local governments
and municipalities. The LMD presidency election is in
January; Aristy Castro has held the position since 1998. He
has extensive political influence through his largely
discretionary control of the money, even though the position
does not carry the public trappings of a Senator. The LMD
owns a helicopter for Aristy,s travels. With that much
money on hand, many assume that Aristy is helping himself to
some of it (though the Embassy has no direct knowledge of
such).
(SBU) Former President of the House of Representatives, PRD
leader Alfredo Pacheco, is openly campaigning for the
position; Senate President Reinaldo Pared Perez has gotten
sufficiently annoyed by the situation that he has threatened
to break with the tradition of electing an opposition
politician to the LMD presidency.
(C) One Dominican blogger suggests that a &gross violation
of trust8 is damaging the credibility of Aristy and that of
the PRSC generally. Worse, Aristy Castro with his
unpredictable actions has helped drive a wedge between the
&youth8 and &mainstream8 factions of the party. Gomez
Casanova comments that Aristy,s decision may be the PRSC,s
&Waterloo.8
(C) The Secretary General says he urged Aristy to assume his
Senate seat for the good of the party and for his own
reputation. In August journalists revealed that the United
States had cancelled Aristy,s non-immigrant visa for
&unspecified reasons,8 a matter that Aristy has stubbornly
refused to comment upon. (We understand that U.S. law
enforcement has information very tentatively linking him to a
drugs/money-laundering investigation.) Gomez told Embassy
officials that he had goneso far as to suggest to Aristy if
he would take up his Senate seat, Aristy could expect the
party to endorse his bid for the PRSC nomination for the
presidential election in 2008. Despite this offer, Aristy
refused.
(C) This engendered a showdown between youth and mainstream
factions on the PRSC,s thirty-one member Political
Committee. Gomez Casanova and eleven other young Committee
members approached PRSC President Enrique Antun on September
9, suggesting that the Political Committee refuse to endorse
Aristy for the LMD position (thereby forcing him into his
Senate seat). In a subsequent meeting with Aristy, Gomez,
and other PRSC powerbrokers, PRSC President Antun indicated
that an endorsement for the LMD bid would be forthcoming on
Tuesday, September 12. As a result, Gomez and his supporters
boycotted the endorsement proceedings that took place that
day.
(C) Gomez, has suggested to Embassy officials that Aristy,s
endorsement by the remaining nineteen was obtained by
unscrupulous means. &Money talks, 8 he said. In another
move that will certainly damage the PRSC,s public image,
President Antun will probably ask the party to name as
Aristy,s replacement a cousin of Aristy Castro, currently a
PRSC congressional representative.
(U) In a last ditch effort to head off this crisis (or
perhaps just to shore up his personal reputation) Gomez on
September 18 went to the press, asking the PRSC political
committee to reconsider its position. His blunt contention
is that the majority of Reformistas would prefer the National
Palace to the LMD.
(C) Comment: The PRSC lost its focus with the disappearance
of Balaguer and now struggles to find its way without a
patron in a political system that is moving, however slowly,
away from naked patronage. Unless the leadership can
redefine its goals and its reason for existence, the PRSC
will continue its slow disintegration. More members will be
pulled into the PLD,s orbit while remaining Reformistas

discredit themselves by self-seeking squabbles.


2. (U) Drafted by Michael Garuckis .


3. (U) This report and extensive other material can be
consulted on our SIPIRNET site,
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/ .
BULLEN