DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #11: MAY 16 ELECTIONS OUTLOOK

UNCLAS SANTO DOMINGO 001598 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, WHA/EPSC; INR/IAA; NSC FOR FISK AND FEARS; USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD; USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION; USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH; DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: DR PGOV SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #11: MAY 16 ELECTIONS OUTLOOK ¶1. (SBU) This is the 11th cable in a series reporting on the Dominican Republic's May 16 congressional and municipal elections: May 16 Elections Outlook On the eve of the May 16 congressional and municipal elections, Central Elections Board (JCE) president Luis Arias has credibly assured the Dominican public and international community that administrative preparations are complete and that the voting process "will proceed normally." International observers, led by an OAS election observer mission, and domestic observers will be deployed throughout the country, with special focus on big cities with close races or places with possible irregularities in voter lists (see our daily for May 15). Voters at 12,371 polling stations will elect 32 senators, 178 representatives, 151 mayors, 151 vice mayors, 963 city council members and their substitutes. Outlook in a Nutshell Nationwide, the ruling PLD will almost certainly increase its currently weak representation in Congress, but may fall short of majorities in either house. It may also win control of some of the municipal governments now controlled overwhelmingly by the opposition, perhaps lessening partisan frictions between the central government and local authorities. An unprecedented alliance between the two major opposition parties will function in about 26 of the 32 provinces, but its ability to turn out PRD and PRSC voters will be tested on election day. The highest-profile contests for senator and mayor in the capital are too close to call; in the northern regional capital, Santiago, the two key races are virtually decided. What the Results Might Mean In the most likely scenario, the Fernandez administration will strengthen its forces in both houses of Congress, but not dominate them. If so, he will gain needed leverage to pass legislation, such as laws relating to DR-CAFTA implementation, but will still have to negotiate with the main opposition parties. This added leverage will be even more useful if the PRD-PRSC opposition alliance survives the election and becomes a legislative coalition. In any case, a Congress that is more balanced between ruling party and opposition may facilitate reaching consensus on major issues. In the event the PLD wins a majority in either house, Fernandez could approach the legislative control that ex-president Mejia enjoyed during his term. The ruling party's performance will also be read as a litmus test of its ability to back President Fernandez for a third term in 2008. The PLD chose not to ally itself with another major party, even though it had the opportunity to do so. The conventional wisdom holds that the PLD is weaker in the base - at local levels - than at the top. That could be changing after Fernandez's convincing victory in the 2004 election (57% to 34% PRD and 9% PRSC). The opposition alliance's performance in the 2006 election will be an indicator of how much the PRD's grass roots have eroded or whether the party has ceded first place to the PLD. From today's perspective, Fernandez will be hard to beat in 2008. Only the PRD, if it retains most of its traditional support, could credibly challenge him. Races to Watch The most highly prized trophies, the mayoralty and Senate seat of Santo Domingo (National District),are up for grabs. The PLD's strength in the city - about half the voters - gives its candidates a natural edge. Mayor Roberto Salcedo (PLD) also has the power of a successful incumbency -- "He picks up the trash in my barrio, where the streets are narrow," quipped political officer's domestic employee, to explain why she will vote for Salcedo. A poll in early April by U.S. firm Penn, Schoen & Berland showed him to lead challenger Alfredo Pacheco by 58% to 41%. But Pacheco (PRD)) has gained respect in three terms as speaker of the House of Representatives and has spent heavily on his campaign -- his glossy brochures come with daily newspapers, detailing a 14-point action plan. Outcome is too close to call. Even closer is the Senate race: PLD secretary general Reinaldo Pared Perez has the backing of President Fernandez and his chief of staff, party boss Danilo Medina. But some voters regard Pared as "prepotente" - too aggressive in his manner. Opposition candidate Johnny Jones offers a more relaxed demeanor on camera, equally articulate but more "simpatico." Jones's weakness is that of his PRSC, which has a low percentage of voters in the capital; he will rely heavily on PRD votes in the opposition alliance. The Penn, Schoen poll put these candidates in a technical tie, 49% for Salcedo to 45% for Jones. In the northern regional capital, Santiago, Attorney General Francisco Dominguez Brito (PLD) is very likely to win a Senate seat. He led PRD candidate Hector "Papin" Dominguez by 58%-31% in the Penn, Schoen poll and continues as the front runner. He stands for rule of law, judicial and prosecutorial reform, and transparency, and is likely to pursue such a legislative agenda if elected. Incumbent mayor Jose Enrique Sued (PRSC) has an even wider margin, 65%-29%, over PLD provincial governor Jose Izquierdo. The mayor has attracted international loans to address the city's problems and takes credit for substantial investment in public works as well as social programs. He benefits from local Reformista Party strength, roughly equivalent to that of the ruling PLD and opposition PRD. Issues for Voters Although many candidates have skimped on campaign proposals, the voters have concerns that they hope will be addressed. Topping the list of most important problems confronting the county, in the Penn, Schoen poll, were corruption (21% of respondents) and unemployment (21%). Next were illegal drugs (19%) and violence and crime (13%). Crime has focused the attention of candidates in the biggest cities, such as Pacheco in Santo Domingo, who have proposed remedies within the limited resources of local governments. An impressive 82% of citizens nationally agreed that the Dominican Republic "needs a hard-line government" to reduce crime; only 17% disagreed. This is noteworthy in a country where, according to other surveys, most citizens still express faith in democracy under any circumstances. Criticisms by Civil Society Prominent civil society organizations predict a generally "normal, orderly" voting process May 16. But they are not so sanguine about some of the JCE's actions or the campaign just completed. The complaints strike familiar chords from previous elections. The digital photographic list of some 5.6 million voters includes many persons who have been transferred from one polling place (colegio electoral) to another, generally for valid reasons including migration of voters or creation of new polling tables. Such transfers often provoke suspicions of malicious intent. This year, more than 10,000 persons were shifted from colegios in and around the capital to some of the least populated and most distant provinces. Civil society and political leaders have alleged that the transfers, which in two towns increased the total number of voters by more than 20 percent, may have resulted from improper action by an unnamed JCE employee, to boost particular candidates' chances. But there is no evidence that the transfers were not voluntary. "The election campaign was no model," clucked top political commentator Juan Bolivar Diaz at an event honoring the election observers. The Fernandez administration "abused state resources" in a flurry of inaugurations of public works by the president, who turned them into campaign events. Government employees and vehicles were dragooned into service to support ruling-party candidates; ads run in the media by government agencies had a similar effect. Also, the parties failed to comply with a legal requirement that 33% of the candidates be women. On the positive side, there was less violence than in previous campaigns -- only 1 dead and 8 injured, by Diaz,s count. While many candidates emphasized style over substance, some 30-40 -- according to Diaz -- did present serious proposals. (Out of more than 14,000 candidates, we would add. Many local candidates addressed local issues from street paving to garbage collection.) As usual, noted Participacion Ciudadana executive director Javier Cabreja, patronage has primed the pump: many voters gauge the candidates, especially for mayor, on their promises to provide public jobs to supporters. Apathy or Disenchantment? Voting is legally obligatory in the Dominican Republic, but is not enforced. Abstention in previous mid-term elections was on the order of 49%, more than the 27% in the 2004 presidential voting. Increased voter apathy in legislative and local elections characterizes many democracies, some commentators have noted. But for others, like Diaz, it is symptomatic of "politicians' growing lack of credibility and voter disgust" at what is perceived as their lack of proposals, corruption, and patronage-oriented behavior. Several candidates have criminal charges pending or have been allowed to run despite convictions for corrupt activities. ¶2. (U) Drafted by Bainbridge Cowell. ¶3. (U) This piece and others in our series can be consulted at our SIPRNET web site (http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo) along with extensive other material. HERTELL