CORRECTED COPY -- DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #8:ELECTION

UNCLAS SANTO DOMINGO 001515

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, WHA/EPSC, INR/IAA, EB, EB/IFD/OMA,
; USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD; TREASURY FOR OASIA-J LEVINE;
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USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH; DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: DR PGOV
SUBJECT: CORRECTED COPY -- DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #8:ELECTION
OUTLOOK - BALANCED, MILDLY OPTIMISTIC


1. (U) This is the 8th cable in a series reporting on the
Dominican Rrepublic's May 16 congressional and municipal
elections:

Election Outlook - Balanced, Mildly Optimistic

As Dominicans approach the May 16 congressional and municipal
elections, the latest poll shows their voting intentions to
be evenly divided between the government party and the
opposition alliance. Remarkably, after years of reduced
purchasing power for most Dominicans, they remain about as
supportive of President Fernandez as when they elected him in

2004. Most also have confidence in the electoral
authorities, despite accusations of political bias among the
judges.

A Dead Heat Overall

A Gallup poll, conducted April 7-11 and published in
reputable center-left daily "Hoy" in late April, shows
Dominican adults' voting intentions to be statistically tied
between the ruling PLD and its allies (41.7%) and the
PRD-PRSC opposition alliance (41.4%),with an error margin of
2.8%. Although opposition leaders questioned the poll's
accuracy, their unprecedented coalition of two historic
adversaries -- both parties weakened by their 2004 election
defeat -- may be working.

Other results suggest that the main opposition parties
overall will not suffer heavy defections by members who
disagree with the alliance their
leaders have engineered. As of the polling dates, the small
percentage of defectors from the government's Bloque
Progresista would have been about the same as from the
opposition's Gran Alianza Nacional.

The poll also suggests the parties might get different
results in Congress and the municipalities. More respondents
believed that elected opposition mayors and city council
members will outnumber those from the ruling coalition -- a
finding corroborated by another survey measuring the
popularity of mayoral candidates. The opposition currently
controls most city halls; conventional wisdom holds that the
opposition has stronger local leadership outside the big
cities.

Opinion was evenly divided on which side would gain more
seats in each house of Congress, but slightly more
respondents believed the government would gain strength in
the Senate (where the PLD presently holds only 1 of 32
seats). Again, this is consistent with other poll results.
Congressional elections depend heavily on provincial and
local leadership, but the ruling party has some attractive
senatorial candidates - - such as Attorney General Francisco
Dominguez Brito in Santiago, the second city - - and seems
likely to bolster its senatorial bloc.

Whatever the election's outcome, it is unlikely to cause any
significant shift in the Dominican Government's policies or
orientation. Another poll, conducted in December by a
university think tank, attempted to measure the general
public's ideological preferences on the eve of the campaign.
Among the respondents, age 15 and up, 41% overall picked "on
the right" as best describing their politics; only 7 percent
chose "on the left"; 18% were "in the center"; and 34% did
not know or respond. The think tank's director commented
that the major parties, regardless of their history or
rhetoric, in practice represent gradations from moderate to
conservative, without dramatic differences. Pragmatically,

their words and deeds are calculated to attract voters.

Mood Swings

The voting public also appears somewhat more optimistic in
general than two years ago, when they voted overwhelmingly to
oust incumbent President Mejia.
The country is headed in the right direction, according to
52% of respondents, and 51% said the economy would improve
within two years. But 45% saw their personal economic
situation as bad or very bad; only 16% considered their
circumstances to be good or very good. Excellent overall
economic growth since 2005 has had minimal resonance in
public opinion, except a recognition that the economy has
stabilized under Fernndez.

Mid-term election results to some extent are viewed as a
referendum on the incumbent president. In that regard,
Leonel Fernandez is sitting pretty. To a question whether he
should run for reelection in 2008, 55% responded yes. This
approval was even higher in the big cities, 63%. Some 49%
viewed Fernandez's performance in office as good or very
good, and 54% were satisfied with his administration. In
stark contrast, 80% disagreed with the
idea that the country should amend its constitution to allow
former president Mejia to seek another term in 2008. Even
65% of Mejia's own party, the PRD, opposed his running again.

Mid-term public opinion can change, however. In the last
congressional and municipal elections, in 2002, President
Mejia's popularity during his first two years in office
helped elect an overwhelming majority of PRD senators and
mayors and a large plurality of PRD representatives. But
Mejia's popularity collapsed in the ensuing two years, amid a
national financial crisis and revelations of corruption; his
no-holds-barred reelection campaign did not avert defeat.

The Central Electoral Board

PLD leaders, especially presidential chief of staff Danilo
Medina, have repeatedly expressed distrust of the Central
Election Board (JCE),which will conduct the elections and
adjudicate any disputes over the results, on grounds that
most of the JCE judges are affiliated with the opposition.
As a check on the JCE, Medina has called for reactivation of
a civil society monitoring committee led by veteran political
mediator Msgr. Agripino Nez. Predictably, the opposition
argues there is no need. Most voters apparently do not share
the PLD concern: 71% responded that the JCE is doing a good
or very good job of organizing the elections; only 12% said
they were dissatisfied.

Issues of Concern

Which is not to say that the voters have no concerns.
Respondents picked as the country's main problem, in
descending order of percentages: electric power blackouts,
the crime wave and gang activities, unemployment, potable
water shortages, illegal drug trafficking and consumption,
and deficiencies of the educational system. On a related
question, the greatest number of respondents singled out the
health sector as most in need of public investment.

More than half of respondents believed the government was
using public resources to support its parties' candidates in
the election. Half said that in the Fernandez administration
there has been just as much corruption as under Mejia, or
even more.


2. (U) Drafted by Bainbridge Cowell.


3. (U) This piece and others in our series can be consulted
at our SIPRNET web site
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo) along with
extensive other material.
HERTELL