DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #8: ELECTION OUTLOOK -

UNCLAS SANTO DOMINGO 001464

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, INR/IAA; NSC FOR FISK AND FEARS;
USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD; USDOC FOR
4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION; USDOC FOR
3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH;
DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: DR PGOV
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #8: ELECTION OUTLOOK -
BALANCED, MILDLY OPTIMISTIC


1. (U) This is the 8th cable in a series reporting on the
Dominican Rrepublic's May 16 congressional and municipal
elections:


Election Outlook - Balanced, Mildly Optimistic

As Dominicans approach the May 16 congressional and municipal
elections, the latest poll
shows their voting intentions to be evenly divided between
the government party and the
opposition alliance. Remarkably, after years of reduced
purchasing power for most
Dominicans, they remain about as supportive of President
Fernandez as when they elected
him in 2004. Most also have confidence in the electoral
authorities, despite accusations
of political bias among the judges.


A Dead Heat Overall

A Gallup poll, conducted April 7-11 and published in
reputable center-left daily "Hoy"
in late April, shows Dominican adults' voting intentions to
be statistically tied between
the ruling PLD and its allies (41.7%) and the PRD-PRSC
opposition alliance (41.4%),with
an error margin of 2.8%. Although opposition leaders
questioned the poll?s accuracy,
their unprecedented coalition of two historic adversaries --
both parties weakened by
their 2004 election defeat -- may be working.

Other results suggest that the main opposition parties
overall will not suffer heavy
defections by members who disagree with the alliance their
leaders have engineered. As
of the polling dates, the small percentage of defectors from
the government's Bloque
Progresista would have been about the same as from the
opposition's Gran Alianza Nacional.

The poll also suggests the parties might get different
results in Congress and the
municipalities. More respondents believed that elected
opposition mayors and city council
members will outnumber those from the ruling coalition - - a
finding corroborated by
another survey measuring the popularity of mayoral
candidates. The opposition currently
controls most city halls; conventional wisdom holds that the
opposition has stronger local
leadership outside the big cities.

Opinion was evenly divided on which side would gain more
seats in each house of Congress,
but slightly more respondents believed the government would
gain strength in the Senate
(where the PLD presently holds only 1 of 32 seats). Again,
this is consistent with other
poll results. Congressional elections depend heavily on
provincial and local leadership,
but the ruling party has some attractive senatorial
candidates - - such as Attorney General
Francisco DomInguez Brito in Santiago, the second city - -
and seems likely to bolster its
senatorial bloc.

Whatever the election's oucome, it is unlikely to cause any
significant shift in the
Dominican Government's policies or orientation. Another
poll, conducted in December by a
university think tank, attempted to measure the general
public's ideological preferences on
the eve of the campaign. Among the respondents, age 15 and
up, 41% overall picked "on the
right" as best describing their politics; only 7 percent
chose "on the left"; 18% were "in
the center"; and 34% did not know or respond. The think
tank's director commented that the
major parties, regardless of their history or rhetoric, in
practice represent gradations
from moderate to conservative, without dramatic differences.
Pragmatically, their words
and deeds are calculated to attract voters.


Mood Swings

The voting public also appears somewhat more optimistic in
general than two years ago, when
they voted overwhelmingly to oust incumbent President Mejia.
The country is headed in the
right direction, according to 52% of respondents, and 51%
said the economy would improve
within two years. But 45% saw their personal economic
situation as bad or very bad; only
16% considered their circumstances to be good or very good.
Excellent overall economic
growth since 2005 has had minimal resonance in public
opinion, except a recognition that
the economy has stabilized under Fernndez.

Mid-term election results to some extent are viewed as a
referendum on the incumbent
president. In that regard, Leonel Fernandez is sitting
pretty. To a question whether he
should run for reelection in 2008, 55% responded yes. This
approval was even higher in the
big cities, 63%. Some 49% viewed Fernandez's performance in
office as good or very good,
and 54% were satisfied with his administration. In stark
contrast, 80% disagreed with the
idea that the country should amend its constitution to allow
former president Meja to seek
another term in 2008. Even 65% of Meja's own party, the
PRD, opposed his running again.

Mid-term public opinion can change, however. In the last
congressional and municipal
elections, in 2002, President Meja's popularity during his
first two years in office
helped elect an overwhelming majority of PRD senators and
mayors and a large plurality of
PRD representatives. But Meja's popularity collapsed in the
ensuing two years, amid a
national financial crisis and revelations of corruption; his
no-holds-barred reelection
campaign did not avert defeat.


The Central Electoral Board

PLD leaders, especially presidential chief of staff Danilo
Medina, have repeatedly
expressed distrust of the Central Election Board (JCE),which
will conduct the elections

and adjudicate any disputes over the results, on grounds that
most of the JCE judges are
affiliated with the opposition. As a check on the JCE,
Medina has called for reactivation
of a civil society monitoring committee led by veteran
political mediator Msgr. Agripino
Nez. Predictably, the opposition argues there is no need.
Most voters apparently do not
share the PLD concern: 71% responded that the JCE is doing a
good or very good job of
organizing the elections; only 12% said they were
dissatisfied.


Issues of Concern

Which is not to say that the voters have no concerns.
Respondents picked as the country's
main problem, in descending order of percentages: electric
power blackouts, the crime wave
and gang activities, unemployment, potable water shortages,
illegal drug trafficking and
consumption, and deficiencies of the educational system. On
a related question, the
greatest number of respondents singled out the health sector
as most in need of public
investment.

More than half of respondents believed the government was
using public resources to support
its parties' candidates in the election. Half said that in
the Fernndez administration
there has been just as much corruption as under Meja, or
even more.


2. (U) Drafted by Bainbridge Cowell.


3. (U) This piece and others in our series can be consulted
at our SIPRNET web site
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo) along with
extensive other material.
KUBISKE