DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #6: PLD SEES BRIGHT ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANTO DOMINGO 001224 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, INR/IAA; NSC FOR FISK AND FEARS; USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD; DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/06/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL DR SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #6: PLD SEES BRIGHT ELECTION PROSPECTS, SHADY ELECTION BOARD REF: SANTO DOMINGO 1100 Classified By: DCM Lisa Kubiske for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (U) This is the 6th cable in a series reporting on the May 16 congressional and municipal elections in the Dominican Republic: PLD Sees Bright Election Prospects, Shady Election Board (C) At breakfast with the Ambassador and Embassy officers on April 5, Presidential chief of staff Danilo Medina, ruling PLD campaign manager Francisco Javier Garcia Fernandez (Secretary of Industry and Trade),and PLD senatorial candidate for the National District Reinaldo Pared Perez (PLD secretary general on leave) voiced their confidence but SIPDIS shared their concerns about the May 16 congressional and municipal elections. The peledeista leaders spoke in bullish fashion of the election outlook and issues. But they warned of potential shenanigans by the opposition-influenced Central Electoral Board and advocated close monitoring by election observers and civil society. PLD Riding High (C) Top presidential adviser Medina encapsulated the PLD's optimistic outlook: "We're clearly going to win in the big cities - the National District, Santo Domingo Province, Santiago, San Cristobal, La Vega, some others. Just the first three have 62 of the 178 congressional representatives. In smaller places we'll divide the legislators with the opposition alliance." He anticipates above-average turnout, citing a survey that shows 80% of the electorate intends to vote - contrary to many pessimistic predictions. "Turnout will be well above 50%," the level in previous mid-term elections. Voters' Concerns (C) Medina ticked off a list of issues that concern voters this year, in order of priority (despite media complaints about what they perceive as a substance-free campaign): -- Crime and citizen security; -- Electric power blackouts; -- High cost of living; -- Unemployment; -- Corruption; and -- Local issues - street repair, trash collection, water supply. Not mentioned: education and HEALTH improvement, governance, or accountability. Would CAFTA-DR become an issue? "It is not an issue. It has not become politicized." �0A; "Deliberate" legal violations (C) PLD campaign chief Francisco Javier Garcia characterized the nine judges of the Central Election Board (JCE) as "accomplished lawyers," familiar with the electoral law, who had "deliberately violated it" with their recent decisions in the election process. Six of the nine - including five who are identified with ex-president Hipolito Mejia's faction of the PRD - decided to accept late candidate registrations from the opposition alliance March 17, rather than convene the JCE plenary to decide as required by law, Garcia asserted. He added that the JCE extended the registration deadline by two hours and allowed the alliance up to a week to complete the documentation - but did not extend this privilege to all political parties. Moreover, the JCE took delivery of the alliance's municipal candidate registrations, which were supposed to have been turned in to the municipal election boards. (The next day the JCE forwarded the documents to the municipal boards for approval. See reftel.) (C) "If the alliance had consulted with the PLD and the JCE plenary had been convened, we would have agred to extend the deadline," said Garcia The PL leaders indicated that they would not be doing nything more about these flaws. A Packed Court (C) Medina complained that the theoretically neural JCE is packed with judges who favor the oppostion. He said that the judge who served as spoksperson for the six who had accepted the late reistrations is the daughter of a senatorial candiate and, as such, is not disinterested. The newSenate that emerges from this election will take office August 16 and then elect the JCE judges for he next four-year term. "If the PRD wins a majoity, the judges stay; if the PRD loses, the judges go." The resulting risk: if for example voters elect 18 PRD senators (of 32) and 5 of these elections are contested, the JCE dispute-resolution chamber will rule in favor of the PRD candidates so the judges can keep their jobs. (C) The Ambassador wondered whether there was a higher authority to which complaints about the JCE could be appealed. The PLD confirmed that under current law, there is no appeal from JCE decisions and the legislature elects the judges. To improve the system, they said, would require a change in the law, perhaps to give the Supreme Court jurisdiction to review JCE decisions. That might open the possibility of appointing JCE judges for life. More JCE abuses (C) The peledeistas continued their litany of alleged JCE infractions. Medina said the opposition alliance had failed to fill the 33% legal quota of female candidates for the lower house of Congress. The PRD and PRSC are running independent candidates in six provinces, so the parties submitted a total of 195 candidates for the 178 seats in the House of Representatives. Of the 195, only 59 are women -- not 65, but the JCE accepted them. Senate candidate Pared Perez foresaw another, potentially more disruptive problem. The JCE is allowing the PRD and PRSC to maintain separate delegates to the JCE and to each municipal board, but the alliance should have only ONE delegate per board, in the PLD's interpretation. "This could produce a crisis on election day," he warned. Monsignor to the Rescue? (C) Medina asked: "If the JCE violates the law on elementary things like these, what will it do on more complicated issues during and after the elections?" Chimed in Garcia: "On a scale of 1 to 10, confidence in the JCE is zero." They both repeated the PLD's earlier public call for veteran political mediator Monsignor Agripino Nunez Collado to reactivate his civil society Monitoring Committee (Comision de Seguimiento), which they said had been crucial in convincing ex-president Mejia to concede defeat in 2004. This would serve as "a moral retaining wall" for the crumbling credibility of the JCE, explained Garcia. Pared Perez added that the committee could keep an expert eye on the JCE computer center, as in ¶2004. They professed puzzlement that the opposition alliance and some JCE judges are against mobilizing the committee, and noted that ONE prominent PRD figure, former attorney general Virgilio Bello Rosa, had come out in favor. "When politicians try to block election monitoring, it's usually because behind the scenes there is fraud." The Embassy as Umpire (C) For similar reasons, the PLD guests urged the USG to play an active role in observation. Commented Medina, "The Embassy is a kind of umpire. We need someone besides the JCE to certify the election results." The Ambassador explained that we are prepared to support international observation as in previous elections, that other embassies have indicated a willingness to contribute, and that the OAS has agreed to send an election observation mission. The guests pressed for the USG to encourage an advance visit by the OAS observers and to advocate coverage of polling places in smaller towns as well as major cities. The Ambassador said these possibilities are under consideration. Invisible Money (C) The Ambassador stressed controls on campaign financing to prevent narcotraffickers or other criminal or anti-democratic elements from influencing the election. Garcia acknowledged this danger and said the PLD campaign had a senior finance manager for party funds. "But contributors prefer face-to-face contact with candidates, and they receive direct contributions without the party's knowledge. We keep watch for candidates that spend way beyond their known means." Medina was frank in his estimate that there was no foreseeable prospect of enacting any law requiring transparency in campaign financing. ¶2. (U) Drafted by Bainbridge Cowell. ¶3. (U) This piece and others in our series can be consulted at our SIPRNET web site (http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo) along with extensive other material. HERTELL