WILL PINOCHET'S LEGACY REST EASY IN HIS GRAVE?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANTIAGO 002564 SIPDIS SIPDIS NOFORN E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2016 TAGS: PREL PHUM MARR KCRM CI SUBJECT: WILL PINOCHET'S LEGACY REST EASY IN HIS GRAVE? REF: SANTIAGO 0244 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Emi L. Yamauchi for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: An estimated 30,000 people attended former Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet's funeral on December 12. Many leading conservative figures attended, but conspicuously absent were the Right's last two presidential candidates, Joaquin Lavin and Sebastian Pinera, as was former Commander in Chief of the Army Emilio Cheyre. The ceremony was punctuated by the cheers and songs of Pinochet supporters, and a politically combative eulogy by one of Pinochet's grandsons. Defense Minister Blanlot was jeered on arrival and jostled on departure. Current Army Chief General Izurrieta was heckled as he delivered the main eulogy (septel). While Pinochet's death punctuates a process in which he personally had become increasingly irrelevant politically and socially, it marks an emotional turning point for Chilean society. End Summary. VIOLENCE SUBSIDES -------------- ¶2. (C) After the disturbances December 10 following Pinochet's death (reftel),there have been no further serious incidents in Chile's major cities. Pinochet supporters had provoked confrontations with his detractors and the press, attacking a construction site near the military academy where Pinochet's wake was held on December 11 and lashing out at journalists at the funeral December 12. On the other side of the city, 3000 people attended a homage to Salvador Allende scheduled to coincide with Pinochet's funeral. After the Allende homage ended, approximately 30 people, mostly minors, were arrested for vandalism and disorderly conduct. There were no reports of disturbances the evening of December 12, and by December 13, traffic and life in general seemed to have returned to normal. LOOKING FOR A WEDGE -------------- ¶3. (C) The political controversies raised by Pinochet's death and funeral are somewhat contrived. Minister of Defense Blanlot publicly called for Pinochet's grandson Augusto Pinochet Molina, an active-duty Captain in the Army, to be disciplined for making political statements in his eulogy at the funeral. Army Chief Izurieta has stated that Pinochet Molina would be disciplined for speaking at a formal Army event without permission and for his political comments (Pinochet Molina was not a programmed speaker at the event). Meanwhile, Izurieta's own eulogy, seemingly justifying Pinochet's coup and only obliquely referring to the army's role in human rights abuses (septel) has not yet drawn public criticism. ¶4. (C) The Chamber of Deputies was in session the morning of December 12, despite Alianza (right wing) legislators having requested a recess; most Alianza representatives did not attend. In the Senate, Concertacion lawmakers walked out when Alianza senators observed a minute of silence for their deceased colleague (Pinochet having been a designated senator under the old constitution) despite a negotiated agreement to accord Pinochet a limited tribute. A few municipalities flew the Chilean flag at half mast without government authorization, the great majority flew it at full staff. Conversely, although military dependencies were authorized to fly the flag at half staff, at the opening of the graduation ceremony at the Naval War College, the Chilean flag was raised and flown at full staff. SEA CHANGE OR PUNCTUATION MARK? -------------- ¶5. (C) In our view, the controversies between the right-leaning opposition Alianza and the center-left Concertacion about the legacy of the military government and the direction social policy should take in the future will not be greatly affected by Pinochet's death. The revelation of Pinochet's secret bank accounts in 2004 undercut his reputation for probity and made it possible for center-right moderates to distance themselves from him. While it is unclear how many of the 30,000 attending his funeral were hard-core supporters and how many sympathized or merely wanted to witness history, one thing is clear: Former Alianza presidential candidates Lavin and Pinera calculated that missing the funeral would not hurt, and could possibly help, their political careers. ¶6. (C) Newspaper coverage dropped from nearly the entire Trials into the Pinochet regime's human rights abuses will continue, but not necessarily with the same interest and vigor. September 11 (the anniversary of Pinochet's coup) will continue to spawn the violent clashes that have become a tradition in Santiago's poorer neighborhoods, nostalgic reunions among the right, and introspective editorials, but the memory and relevance of Pinochet will continue to fade as Chileans look toward the future. STATUS QUO -------------- ¶7. (C) The key question: Will the Bachelet administration and the opposition use Pinochet's passing to promote reconciliation or allow Pinochet to continue as a divisive figure? Given Bachelet's lack of decisive leadership in recent high-profile instances -- i.e. student strikes, UNSC vote, corruption scandals -- we do not believe the push will come from Bachelet. Chile is comfortable with its economic model and the GOC has boosted social spending on the back of the copper boom, alleviating overt social conflict. Not perceiving a crisis, Bachelet is likely to allow Pinochet's death to pass without launching any major initiative to begin healing the wounds of a still socially divided country. Nor is the Right, with its close ties to Pinochet and a stuck-in-the-past mentality, likely to make an overture. ¶8. (C) If it comes, reconciliation is likely to be driven by a third source, such as Archbishop Errazuriz, who has used his offices to intervene and urge moderation in the recent corruption scandals. Most likely, Chileans will continue to successfully ignore the deep divide between those who revere Pinochet as the savior and father of modern Chile, and those who consider him a murderous, tyrannical despot who derailed Allende's socialist experiment and escaped justice to the very end. KELLY