WILL PINOCHET'S LEGACY REST EASY IN HIS GRAVE?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANTIAGO 002564

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2016
TAGS: PREL PHUM MARR KCRM CI
SUBJECT: WILL PINOCHET'S LEGACY REST EASY IN HIS GRAVE?
REF: SANTIAGO 0244

Classified By: Deputy Chief
of Mission Emi L. Yamauchi for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: An estimated 30,000 people attended former
Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet's funeral on December 12.
Many leading conservative figures attended, but conspicuously
absent were the Right's last two presidential candidates,
Joaquin Lavin and Sebastian Pinera, as was former Commander
in Chief of the Army Emilio Cheyre. The ceremony was
punctuated by the cheers and songs of Pinochet supporters,
and a politically combative eulogy by one of Pinochet's
grandsons. Defense Minister Blanlot was jeered on arrival
and jostled on departure. Current Army Chief General
Izurrieta was heckled as he delivered the main eulogy
(septel). While Pinochet's death punctuates a process in
which he personally had become increasingly irrelevant
politically and socially, it marks an emotional turning point
for Chilean society. End Summary.

VIOLENCE SUBSIDES
--------------


2. (C) After the disturbances December 10 following
Pinochet's death (reftel),there have been no further serious
incidents in Chile's major cities. Pinochet supporters had
provoked confrontations with his detractors and the press,
attacking a construction site near the military academy where
Pinochet's wake was held on December 11 and lashing out at
journalists at the funeral December 12. On the other side of
the city, 3000 people attended a homage to Salvador Allende
scheduled to coincide with Pinochet's funeral. After the
Allende homage ended, approximately 30 people, mostly minors,
were arrested for vandalism and disorderly conduct. There
were no reports of disturbances the evening of December 12,
and by December 13, traffic and life in general seemed to
have returned to normal.

LOOKING FOR A WEDGE
--------------


3. (C) The political controversies raised by Pinochet's
death and funeral are somewhat contrived. Minister of Defense
Blanlot publicly called for Pinochet's grandson Augusto
Pinochet Molina, an active-duty Captain in the Army, to be
disciplined for making political statements in his eulogy at
the funeral. Army Chief Izurieta has stated that Pinochet
Molina would be disciplined for speaking at a formal Army
event without permission and for his political comments
(Pinochet Molina was not a programmed speaker at the event).
Meanwhile, Izurieta's own eulogy, seemingly justifying
Pinochet's coup and only obliquely referring to the army's
role in human rights abuses (septel) has not yet drawn public
criticism.


4. (C) The Chamber of Deputies was in session the morning of
December 12, despite Alianza (right wing) legislators having
requested a recess; most Alianza representatives did not
attend. In the Senate, Concertacion lawmakers walked out
when Alianza senators observed a minute of silence for their
deceased colleague (Pinochet having been a designated senator
under the old constitution) despite a negotiated agreement to
accord Pinochet a limited tribute. A few municipalities flew
the Chilean flag at half mast without government
authorization, the great majority flew it at full staff.
Conversely, although military dependencies were authorized to
fly the flag at half staff, at the opening of the graduation
ceremony at the Naval War College, the Chilean flag was
raised and flown at full staff.

SEA CHANGE OR PUNCTUATION MARK?
--------------


5. (C) In our view, the controversies between the
right-leaning opposition Alianza and the center-left
Concertacion about the legacy of the military government and
the direction social policy should take in the future will
not be greatly affected by Pinochet's death. The revelation
of Pinochet's secret bank accounts in 2004 undercut his
reputation for probity and made it possible for center-right
moderates to distance themselves from him. While it is
unclear how many of the 30,000 attending his funeral were
hard-core supporters and how many sympathized or merely
wanted to witness history, one thing is clear: Former
Alianza presidential candidates Lavin and Pinera calculated
that missing the funeral would not hurt, and could possibly
help, their political careers.


6. (C) Newspaper coverage dropped from nearly the entire

Trials into the Pinochet regime's human rights abuses will
continue, but not necessarily with the same interest and
vigor. September 11 (the anniversary of Pinochet's coup)
will continue to spawn the violent clashes that have become a
tradition in Santiago's poorer neighborhoods, nostalgic
reunions among the right, and introspective editorials, but
the memory and relevance of Pinochet will continue to fade as
Chileans look toward the future.

STATUS QUO
--------------


7. (C) The key question: Will the Bachelet administration
and the opposition use Pinochet's passing to promote
reconciliation or allow Pinochet to continue as a divisive
figure? Given Bachelet's lack of decisive leadership in
recent high-profile instances -- i.e. student strikes, UNSC
vote, corruption scandals -- we do not believe the push will
come from Bachelet. Chile is comfortable with its economic
model and the GOC has boosted social spending on the back of
the copper boom, alleviating overt social conflict. Not
perceiving a crisis, Bachelet is likely to allow Pinochet's
death to pass without launching any major initiative to begin
healing the wounds of a still socially divided country. Nor
is the Right, with its close ties to Pinochet and a
stuck-in-the-past mentality, likely to make an overture.


8. (C) If it comes, reconciliation is likely to be driven by
a third source, such as Archbishop Errazuriz, who has used
his offices to intervene and urge moderation in the recent
corruption scandals. Most likely, Chileans will continue to
successfully ignore the deep divide between those who revere
Pinochet as the savior and father of modern Chile, and those
who consider him a murderous, tyrannical despot who derailed
Allende's socialist experiment and escaped justice to the
very end.
KELLY