ELECTION REPORT: THE WESTERN PROVINCES OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 000623 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/CEN PAUL DEGLER E.O. 12958: DECL: 10 YEARS TAGS: PGOV ES SUBJECT: ELECTION REPORT: THE WESTERN PROVINCES OF SONSONATE, SANTA ANA, AND AHUACHAPAN Classified By: DCM Michael Butler for reasons 1.4(b) & (d)1.(C) SUMMARY: From February 16 to March 2, Poloff met with local leaders from Sonsonate, Santa Ana, and Ahuachapan, all departmental capitals, to solicit their opinions relative to the March 12 national elections. ARENA will most likely win the majority of legislative seats, but probably not as many as initially projected. It appears that ARENA will re-take the Sonsonate mayoralty, the Christian Democratic Party (PDC) will win Santa Ana, and Ahuachapan is too close to call. ARENA candidates are bolstered by the popularity of President Saca. Crime and jobs are the predominant concerns in western El Salvador. End Summary. -------------- Sonsonate -------------- 2.(C) Poloff met separately with Catholic Bishop Jose Adolfo Mojica (solid left),Acting Mayor Renato Perez (Note: Long-time mayor Manuel Arce died suddenly late last year and left ARENA scrambling for a replacement candidate. End Note.),ARENA Political Strategist Luis Lagos, and Regional Police Commander Juan Anaya Alfaro. All predict victory for ARENA in the mayoral race and significant support for their National Assembly candidates. The consensus is that ARENA is better funded and has a more sophisticated political machine. All indicated that crime is the top concern of voters, followed closely by lack of employment. ¶3. (C) Comment: Sonsonate holds the dubious title of being the murder capital of El Salvador. ARENA's anti-crime platform appears to resonate with local voters. That, coupled with the popularity of the recently deceased mayor, bodes well for ARENA. End Comment. -------------- Santa Ana -------------- ¶4. (C) Poloff met separately with Mayor Orlando Mena ( Note: Mena won the mayoralty last time under the FMLN banner, but switched last year to the PDC. He remains a very popular mayor in spite of the switch. End Note),two FMLN campaign staffers, Regional Police Commander Hector Mendoza (solid right),and local entrepreneur Moises Maga$a (solid right). The PDC (Mena) seem a sure bet to maintain control of the township, while ARENA and the FMLN are running neck and neck for legislative seats. An extrapolation of all opinions taken during the visit would lead one to think that ARENA will likely take three National Assembly seats, the FMLN will win two, and the PDC will get one. Although crime is an issue, the top priority in the area is lack of employment. ¶5. (C) Comment: None of the major polls taken so far would give ARENA three Assembly seats in Santa Ana. It is more likely that ARENA will win two. The campaign in Santa Ana has recently turned ugly. Mendoza reports that each night supporters from all four parties deface or remove the other parties' campaign propaganda. ARENA and FMLN activists have thrown rocks at each other while campaigning in the streets. No matter who wins, we should expect the losing party to allege fraud. End Comment. -------------- Ahuachapan -------------- ¶6. (C) Poloff met separately with Mayor Rafael Mor n (ARENA), Regional Police Commander Jose Lopez Galvez (solid right), Baptist Pastor Gerardo Zablah (solid left),and PCN mayoral candidate Luis Salda$a (PCN). With the exception of Salda$a (PCN),all predict ARENA will win the township in a close election. ARENA should take two of the four legislative seats, with the other two falling to the PCN and FMLN respectively. Ahuachapan province is mostly rural, and violent crime is not as serious as in other parts of the country. All interlocutors mentioned the need for improvements to infrastructure to attract investment and to facilitate local industry (agriculture). ¶7. Comment: Rafael Moran is one of ARENA's "star" mayors and has done quite well in the major polls. The recent campaign visit of President Saca to Ahuachapan should also help. Salda$a bolted ARENA for the PCN because the party would not allow him to run for mayor under their banner. He is veterinarian with name recognition in a largely rural district. ARENA dominates the political landscape in this conservative and rural province. End Comment. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) ARENA officials opined that voters will select their party because of their reputation for positive political action. When pressed, they concede that the majority of their success will rest with the personal popularity of President Saca, who has been appearing in political advertisements evoking the slogan, "A vote for your local ARENA legislator is a vote for Tony Saca". Non-political interlocutors opined that the FMLN has no political strategy other than to oppose ARENA. Despite that, and the fact that they had an atrocious record of corruption and mismanagement when they ran Ahuachapan city hall, they will retain their solidly ideological political base. Barclay