EL SALVADOR: FMLN LEADER SCHAFIK HANDAL DEAD AT 75

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SAN SALVADOR 000210 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2016 TAGS: ES PGOV PREL SUBJECT: EL SALVADOR: FMLN LEADER SCHAFIK HANDAL DEAD AT 75 REF: 2005 SAN SALVADOR 3259 Classified By: DCM Michael A. Butler, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Longtime FMLN leader and 2004 presidential candidate Schafik Handal died suddenly Tuesday afternoon, January 24 from a heart attack as he returned from Bolivia. With six weeks to go until nationwide elections, Handal's death may provide a temporary rallying point and boost for FMLN candidates, recently adrift amid polls showing their party far behind ARENA. Embassy contacts see shadowy hardliner strongman Jose Luis Merino as Handal's possible successor, and envision no change in the party's recent march toward inflexible orthodox positions on virtually every domestic and international issue. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Having just returned from the inauguration of populist President Evo Morales, Handal was disembarking at Comalapa International Airport at approximately 4:30 p.m. when he was struck by a massive heart attack, apparently dying almost immediately. National Public Security Council (CNSP) President Oscar Bonilla, a former FMLN member, outlined to PolCouns that although Handal did not survive the heart attack at the airport, the elaborate GOES emergency response (which included immediate helicopter transfer to San Salvador and a police-escorted ambulance) allowed the Saca administration to appear graciously benevolent in its efforts to save its greatest critic and chief opponent. A team of a half-dozen top cardiologists was unable to revive Handal, who was officially declared dead at approximately 5:00 p.m. ¶3. (C) Bonilla went on to opine that, with only six weeks to go until nationwide municipal and Legislative Assembly elections, FMLN leaders will invoke Handal's memory in the name of rededicating efforts to "fight on for social justice", etc. In a separate January 25 meeting with PolCouns, former FMLN San Salvador mayor and 2004 center-left presidential candidate Hector Silva agreed that Handal's passing may help lift the FMLN's March prospects, and that the party's two contending hardliner factions, Handal's and that of Jose Luis Merino (see reftel),will remain at least publicly united until after the elections. Silva postulated that a struggle between the two factions would likely develop after March. Silva would not project the ultimate winner of such a fight, but noted that although Handal's followers will likely prevail in the short term, Merino's faction would be more likely to cut backroom deals with ARENA and others in its quest for power, and could therefore dominate the party's future. ¶4. (C) In a January 25 meeting with poloff, leading members of the center-left Christian Popular Social Party (PPSC) and Democratic Center (CD) envisioned little effect on the elections. PPSC interlocutors remarked that Handal's death could even backfire on the FMLN if they were perceived as being overly eager to make political hay out of his demise. (Note: The FMLN's plans include public viewings of Handal's remains in at least five separate public venues between now and his Sunday, January 29 burial. End note.) CD Legislative Assembly Deputy Jorge Villacorta speculated that Handal's death might ultimately lead to his closest associates' political exile from the FMLN. ¶5. (C) Former FMLN Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) Magistrate Julio Hernandez, now National Coordinator of the new center-left Revolutionary Democratic Front (FDR) party, outlined his view that Handal's death will reinvigorate hardliners' spirits--recently flagging in the wake of polls underlining President Saca's continuing popularity. Hernandez, perhaps one of the most astute and insightful observers of the Salvadoran left, shared his view that Handal was never privately as extremist as his public pronouncements would indicate, and that underneath it all, he had been a political pragmatist who was willing to play by the rules and cut deals when necessary. Hernandez believes that Merino--whom he characterized as "a gangster"--will soon solidify his control of the FMLN, and that under his leadership, the future of the party's few remaining moderates such as Deputy Hugo Martinez is likely imperiled. Hernandez sees a silver lining in the cloud of hardliner intolerance, in that his newly-emerged FDR camp can avail itself of the opportunity to attract those who the FMLN doesn't want, and in so doing, broaden its base among the electorate. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: Notwithstanding any temporary rallying point it may provide FMLN loyalists, no Embassy contact of any political persuasion sees Handal's death as likely to cause the FMLN to moderate the ever-harsher and anachronistic orthodox line it has pursued since the 2004 presidential election. On the contrary, all appear more or less united in the consensus that Handal's departure merely consolidates strongman Jose Luis Merino's grip on power. The passing of the venerable leftist icon appears only to mark the passing of the torch among rival hardliners, rather than any watershed date in El Salvador's political geometry. Barclay