COSTA RICA: GUATEMALAN CAMPAIGN LOOKS WEAK FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN JOSE 000488 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2016 TAGS: PREL CS PGOC UNSC SUBJECT: COSTA RICA: GUATEMALAN CAMPAIGN LOOKS WEAK FOR NON-PERMANENT UNSC SEAT REF: STATE 27055 Classified By: DCM Russell Frisbie for reasons 1.4 (b&d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Costa Rica will support Guatemala's efforts to win the rotational Latin seat on the UNSC. The Foreign Minister and Director of Foreign Policy told us separately that Guatemala needs to campaign more aggressively, particularly in the Caribbean, and offered to assist. These officials are pessimistic about Guatemala's chances. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Ambassador Langdale discussed reftel points with Foreign Minister Tovar on March 2, 2006. Tovar confirmed that Costa Rica will support Guatemala's campaign in the October elections. Tovar stated that Latin support for Guatemala was solid "north of Colombia," but lamented what he called a "weak" campaign on Guatemala's part. Tovar felt Guatemala was relying too much on the argument that it has never held a seat on the Security Council, and that this argument was failing to convince many in the face of incentives offered by Venezuela. Tovar regretted Ecuador's withdrawal from the race and wished a stronger candidate, like Colombia, were available. ¶3. (C) With the Ambassador looking on, Tovar phoned Costa Rican UN Permrep Bruno Stagno for a read-out. According to Tovar, Stagno believes Europe supports Guatemala, but Venezuela has made good progress in Africa. Venezuela also has the lead in the Caribbean, according to Tovar. Tovar said that since the ballot is secret, the Caribbean will not vote as a block. Tovar added that Costa Rica would be helpful in peeling a number of Caribbean votes away from Venezuela. ¶4. (C) Comparing Guatemala's campaign to Costa Rica's successful bid for Secretary General of the OAS, Tovar remarked that it was important for the United States to maintain a low profile. Cuban and Venezuelan lobbying against the "U.S. candidate" in the Caribbean had been a key part of Costa Rica's victory, Tovar said. ¶5. (C) Polcouns separately discussed reftel demarche with Ambassador Jose Joaquin Chaverri, Director of Foreign Policy at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, during a meeting on February 27. While Chaverri reiterated Costa Rica's support for Guatemala's candidacy, he expressed doubt that Venezuela will be denied. ¶6. (C) Chaverri also stated that Guatemala's road to the UNSC will necessarily go through CARICOM via Belize. Since CARICOM includes 14 of the 33 UN votes in GRULAC, winning support from the Caribbean bloc is essential. Chaverri thought that without Belizean support before CARICOM, the bloc will have a convenient excuse to vote for Venezuela, which has long courted the Caribbean nations. ¶7. (C) Given Venezuela's well-financed campaign, traditional support from CARICOM, and stated support from at least 5 additional GRULAC countries, Chaverri rated Guatemala's chances of defeating Venezuela as very slight. He said that if Guatemala was really serious, its foreign minister will need to campaign by traveling to every country in the hemisphere. LANGDALE