ELECTION RESULTS EMBOLDEN ANTI-CAFTA-DR FORCES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SAN JOSE 000331 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS WHA/CEN WHA FOR WMIELE WHA/EPSC FOR KURS, LGUMBINER STATE PASS TO USTR E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ETRD ELAB PGOV PREL CS SUBJECT: ELECTION RESULTS EMBOLDEN ANTI-CAFTA-DR FORCES REF: SAN JOSE 305 Summary -------------- ¶1. (U) Public sector labor unions and other opponents of CAFTA-DR are trying to capitalize on the February 5 election results to stop treaty ratification in Costa Rica. They claim that the better-than-expected showing for presidential candidate Otton Solis, a treaty critic, nullifies the Legislative Assembly's "political legitimacy" to continue deliberations on CAFTA-DR. The Assembly's International Relations Committee chairman decided to suspend action on the treaty until after the winner of the presidential election is officially announced, possibly as late as March 17. End summary. Spin Zone -------------- ¶2. (U) Anti-CAFTA-DR forces in Costa Rica are choosing to read the results of the presidential election as a victory. Their candidate, Otton Solis, did much better than anyone had expected and virtually tied Oscar Arias, a treaty advocate, with 40 percent of the vote. Solis's vice presidential candidate Epsy Campbell said after the election: "The future of CAFTA-DR will never be the same. This will give impetus to a process of dialogue involving all sectors seeking renegotiation (of the treaty)." Labor union leader Albino Vargas crowed that the election was "a deafening defeat of the neoliberal oligarchy supporting CAFTA-DR." Threats of Street Demonstrations -------------- ¶3. (U) On February 8, an anti-CAFTA-DR coalition of public sector labor union leaders, led by Vargas, plus rice growers and small farmers (representing a small minority of the agricultural sector) wrote a letter to the members of the Legislative Assembly saying that the Assembly had "lost political legitimacy to continue with the ratification process of CAFTA-DR." They also warned that if the Assembly were to continue to hold hearings on CAFTA-DR, "it would be an extremely dangerous provocation destabilizing the country through a street confrontation that will be more than fiery." Skittish Reaction -------------- ¶4. (U) Rolando Lacle, chairman of the Legislative Assembly's International Affairs and Trade committee, where CAFTA-DR hearings were scheduled to recommence this week, announced on February 9: "We have to wait for an electoral result to know how the president-elect wants to handle this matter." It is therefore possible that the committee will suspend action on CAFTA-DR until March 17. Lacle was supported in his decision by the anti-CAFTA-DR members of the committee and by President Pacheco who intimated that treaty ratification is best left to the incoming Assembly, which takes office on May ¶1. PAC-Labor Union Pact -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Meanwhile, Otton Solis is holding a series of meetings with some of the 200 "leaders of social and productive organizations" with whom he and his Citizens' Action Party (PAC) entered into a "Social Pact for the Mother Country" on the eve of the election. The pact commits the signatories to "negotiate a new free trade agreement with the United States," to "defend the Costa Rican Electricity Institute (ICE)," whose monopoly status would be affected by CAFTA-DR, and to "strengthen our food sovereignty" (read restrict rice imports),among other things. Solis told the press, whether as president or as leader of the opposition, he will cooperate closely with "civil society" (read public sector labor unions). Comment -------------- ¶6. (SBU) CAFTA-DR was not debated in any significant way during the election campaign and was not the reason for the close vote between Arias and Solis (see reftel). Further, to say that the 40 percent of voters who supported Solis are against CAFTA-DR is not supported by polling data. According to a University of Costa Rica poll conducted in late November, more Solis supporters think CAFTA-DR is good for Costa Rica (43.7 percent) than think it is bad (34.5 percent). (Note: For Arias supporters, the percentages are 71.3 and 11.2, respectively.) ¶7. (SBU) Time and again during the Pacheco administration the public sector labor unions have threatened, and Pacheco and his party members (like Rolando Lacle) have backed down. Nearly two thirds of the current Legislative Assembly and about the same number in the newly elected Legislative Assembly support CAFTA-DR. Opponents of the treaty know that a vote would not go their way, so their strategy is to delay any legislative action on the treaty as long as possible, until, finally, the clock runs out. If CAFTA-DR is killed in Costa Rica, it will not be a climactic event but a death from an endless succession of delays. LANGDALE