VOTER DISAFFECTION WITH POLITICAL CLASS LEADS TO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SAN JOSE 000305 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV CS SUBJECT: VOTER DISAFFECTION WITH POLITICAL CLASS LEADS TO TIGHT PRESIDENTIAL RACE REF: A. SAN JOSE 283 ¶B. SAN JOSE 270 Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Although the two leading candidates for president have clearly defined and well known positions on CAFTA-DR -- Oscar Arias is for, and Otton Solis against -- treaty ratification was not the key issue in the election or the cause for Solis's higher-than-expected showing in the presidential vote. Rather voters were moved in one direction or another depending on their attitude toward the traditional political class, which Arias epitomizes, and their feeling about Arias himself, whom many regard as imperious and far removed from the reality of most Costa Ricans. In the end, these negatives for Arias nearly outweighed his stature, experience, ability, money, and strong party organization. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) Polls leading up to the February 5 election showed leftist candidate Otton Solis closing in on centrist frontrunner Oscar Arias, but with Arias maintaining a very comfortable lead of 11-19 percent (ref B). The result, however, was quite different -- a virtual tie, with Arias perhaps edging out Solis by less than one half of one percent (ref A). Political commentators are now trying to sort out the reasons why an upstart like Otton Solis with little money and not much of an organization did so well against the greatest political force in the country, the National Liberation Party (PLN),and its most illustrious representative, former president and Nobel laureate Oscar Arias. Solis -- Capitalizing on Disaffection -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Solis created his Citizens' Action Party (PAC) in 2000 as an anti-corruption, anti-politics-as-usual, anti-traditional-party party and, in PAC's first electoral venture (in 2002),won 14 seats in the 57-member Legislative Assembly and 26 percent of the presidential vote. This result for a newly minted party was nothing less than stunning. Because neither the PLN presidential candidate nor the candidate of the Social Christian Unity Party (PUSC),the other traditional party in what until that moment had been essentially a two-party political system, won 40 percent of the vote, Solis, who came in third, forced the first-ever runoff election between the two traditional party candidates, with PUSC candidate Abel Pacheco ultimately winning. ¶4. (SBU) Solis's strength then, as now, came from the urban, educated classes who felt that the PLN and the PUSC which had existed in one form or another for over 50 years, were closed clubs where favors were traded. The traditional parties, Solis supporters believed, existed for the benefit of their own members, not for the benefit of the country as a whole. ¶5. (SBU) This disaffection was greatly heightened during the four years of the Pacheco administration (2002-06). In late 2004, two former PUSC presidents -- Rafael Angel Calderon (1990-94) and Miguel Angel Rodriguez (1998-02) -- were arrested for taking alleged kickbacks from private companies which had been granted public concessions. Former PLN president Jose Maria Figueres (1994-98) is also widely believed to have received a kickback, USD 900,000 from French telecom company Alcatel, though Figueres claims the money was a legitimate fee. (Note: Arias, who originally distanced himself from Figueres, inexplicably and unwisely seemed to defend him of late.) President Pacheco, who had received illegal campaign contributions in 2002, is not suspected of having enriched himself illegally or of having committed any prosecutable corrupt acts; however, polls show that Costa Ricans believe him to be the worst president the country has had since Rodrigo Carazo (1978-82). Because of the actions of Calderon, Rodriguez, and Pacheco, PUSC went into the election as an almost completely discredited party. PLN was also tainted, and for many Costa Ricans who are not political insiders PUSC and PLN are flip sides of the same coin. ¶6. (SBU) Solis ran for president in 2006, like in 2002, as the "anti" candidate. He was against CAFTA-DR, against the opening of state monopolies, but, more than anything, against the closed, private clubs that were the traditional political parties. His most attractive quality was being neither PUSC nor PLN. Former PUSC officials as well as former PUSC voters, who recognized that PUSC had no chance in the 2006 presidential election, naturally gravitated to PAC. (Note: According to Arias, former president Calderon, still a PUSC boss, told his local party leaders throughout the country to urge followers to support PUSC legislative candidates but to vote for Solis for president.) Moreover, Solis actively courted the PUSC supporters; Arias did not. Arias -- A Man Above The People -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Arias wanted to be a candidate somehow above the fray. Although Arias is a committed democrat, he certainly believed that in his case an election was a mere formality and inconvenient necessity. He occasionally complained about attacks against him but did not deign to respond in kind. When challenged by Solis to a debate, Arias answered through the press that he was so far ahead of Solis in the polls that a debate was superfluous, i.e. it could not possibly affect the election result. Arias did not enjoy appearing in public except when he could show off his powerful friends like former Spanish premier Felipe Gonzalez or John Kennedy's niece. Arias appeared to be a man above the people. Lack of Debate on CAFTA-DR -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The presidential election did not hinge on a differentiation with regard to economic and trade issues, but on a feeling of alienation from the political class represented by the traditional political parties and on voters' attitude towards Oscar Arias, whom people either like or hate. Although both Arias and Solis have clearly defined and well known views on CAFTA-DR (Arias pro, and Solis con), the treaty was scarcely mentioned by either candidate during the campaign. Arias talked mostly about the need to rebuild the country's infrastructure and invest in education. Solis talked about honesty and transparency in government and consistently and aggressively attacked Arias. ¶9. (SBU) The better measure of the country ideologically is the legislative election. The ballot for Legislative Assembly contains long party lists, and voters make their decision based on party affiliations and ideological inclinations, not on personalities of the day. So while Arias and Solis virtually tied for president at 40 percent each, PLN in the Assembly got 36.4 percent of the vote compared with PAC's 25.8 percent. The Assembly, far more than the outcome in the presidential race, represents the panoply of political loyalties in Costa Rica and will thus have members from eight different parties and a majority in favor of free trade. LANGDALE