ARIAS LIKELY TO WIN PRESIDENCY, BUT WITHOUT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SAN JOSE 000193 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV CS SUBJECT: ARIAS LIKELY TO WIN PRESIDENCY, BUT WITHOUT MAJORITY IN THE LEGISLATURE REF: SAN JOSE 180 Summary -------------- ¶1. (U) Reputable polls conducted over the last six months show Oscar Arias, who was president 1986-90, with a consistent and commanding lead to be reelected president on February 5. Polls taken in late January show Arias, considered a centrist candidate, to have the support of 45-49 percent of the voters against 21-24 percent for leftist candidate Otton Solis and 14-15 percent for rightist candidate Otto Guevara, Arias's closest rivals. For the 57-member unicameral Legislative Assembly, however, polling suggests that Arias's National Liberation Party (PLN) will win less than a majority at 24 members (deputies). Solis's Citizens' Action Party (PAC) will be the main opposition with 13 deputies, and Guevara's Libertarian Movement (ML) is expected to win 8 seats. The governing party of the last 8 years, the Social Christian Unity Party (PUSC),may win only 4 seats because of voters' disgust with the poor record of the Pacheco administration and corruption scandals affecting two past presidents elected under the PUSC banner. The remaining 8 seats in the Assembly are expected to be divided between 5 minor parties. Though the fragmentation of the Assembly appears to be a recipe for gridlock, we expect Arias to be much more adept at ad hoc coalition-building than Pacheco has been. End summary. A Ho-Hum Election -------------- ¶2. (U) Since March 2004, when Oscar Arias announced his intention to run again for the presidency, he has had frontrunner status. Various polls conducted since August 2005 show Arias's support at 45 to 50 percent against 14 to 24 percent for his closest rival, Otton Solis. This led President Pacheco to state the obvious at his regular Tuesday press conference on January 24: "If Don Oscar has about 50 percent, as the polls seem to indicate, and the one who follows has half of that, I don't think there is much of a contest." Predictably, there were howls of protest from all of the candidates except Arias, claiming that Pacheco was taking sides or discouraging voters from going to the polls. (Note: Costa Rica's electoral code prohibits the president and other high-level officials from "using the authority or influence of their positions to the benefit of political parties," i.e., they cannot participate in political campaigns.) 
¶3. (U) The strategy of Arias's opponents is to force a runoff election which is required under the constitution if no candidate obtains 40 percent of the vote. The problem they have is that all the polls show Arias to be comfortably above that bar, and, even if he failed in the first round on February 5, it is difficult to conceive of a scenario in which he would lose in the second round, which would take place, if necessary, on April 2. Three-Way Presidential Race -------------- ¶4. (U) Polling by different companies and at different times has been remarkably consistent and unchanging. There are a total of 14 presidential candidates on the ballot, but only three of them have significant voter support. The two most recent polls (Demoscopia and CID-Gallup),both conducted in the second half of January, show Arias, a centrist candidate, with 45 to 49 percent. Arias's principal rivals, Otton Solis, a leftist, and Otto Guevara, a rightist, were both candidates for president in 2002. The polls for this election show Solis with 21 to 24 percent support, slightly down from the 26 percent of the votes he won in 2002. Guevara now has 14 to 15 percent support, a dramatic improvement over the 2 percent of the votes he got four years ago. None of the other candidates rates higher than 6 percent. (Note: The above polling figures are percentages of those voters who are decided; about 25 percent of registered voters are still undecided.) Nine-Way Legislative Race -------------- ¶5. (U) The more interesting race is for the unicameral Legislative Assembly, all of whose 57 members (deputies) turn over, as the constitution does not permit their serving consecutive terms. According to the latest poll on party preferences for the Assembly (one cannot run as an independent),nine different parties could end up with seats. Arias's National Liberation Party (PLN) is expected to have 24 deputies in the new Assembly, up from the 17 elected in ¶2002. Solis's Citizens' Action Party (PAC),according to the poll, will have 13 deputies, down by one from 2002. The Libertarian Movement (ML) of Otto Guevara could elect 8 deputies, up by two from 2002. The biggest story in this election is the expected collapse of the governing party of the last eight years and the party of three of Costa Rica's last four presidents, the Social Christian Unity Party (PUSC). In 2002 PUSC won 19 seats, making it the largest party in the current Assembly. The party has practically disintegrated in the last four years due to corruption scandals affecting PUSC presidents Rafael Angel Calderon (1990-94) and Miguel Angel Rodriguez (1998-02) and what is generally regarded as the abysmal performance of President Pacheco, who is also from PUSC. As a result of all of this, the latest polls show PUSC winning only 4 seats in the next Assembly and its presidential candidate, Ricardo Toledo, with only 3 to 6 percent of the vote. Five minor parties are expected to win the remaining 8 seats in the Assembly. Turnout -------------- ¶6. (U) A surprising result of both January polls in that almost 80 percent of those surveyed said they intended to vote. If all who intend to vote actually do vote, there will be a substantial improvement over the 60 percent voter turnout in 2002. About 77 percent of those who intend to vote will vote for the same party for president and legislature. The Demoscopia poll showed that if those who do not now intend to vote and those who are still undecided do in fact vote on February 5, their votes will be distributed roughly proportionally among the parties supported by the decided voters. Thus the size of the turnout is not expected to affect the election results. What is not accounted for in the polls, however, is the get-out-the-vote capability of the different parties on election day. PLN has the best organization and financing and may substantially boost its vote by providing transportation to citizens otherwise confined to their homes. The Campaign -------------- ¶7. (U) The platforms of the main candidates have been notably lacking in ideology and discussions of "big issues." Rather, the focus has been on bread-and-butter issues that confront average voters every day, e.g. the poor condition of the roads, increasing crime, unemployment, etc. CAFTA-DR has been in the background. However, the polls show a strong correlation between support for CAFTA-DR and support for PLN, ML, and PUSC. Those who oppose CAFTA-DR tend to support PAC and Otton Solis, who has been saying that CAFTA-DR must be renegotiated. Comment -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Oscar Arias, Costa Rica's probable next president, even if he doesn't get 50 percent of the vote, will be elected with what will be considered here to be a strong mandate. He, like President Pacheco, however, will have to deal with a fragmented legislature with no majority party. In the Pacheco Administration, that fragmentation combined with Pacheco's very weak leadership abilities resulted in gridlock, the worst example of which is Pacheco's fiscal reform package, introduced shortly after he took office and still being debated almost four years later. ¶9. (SBU) Arias is very different from Pacheco, and Costa Ricans will not tolerate another four years of do-nothing government. Although Costa Rica has no tradition of formal and permanent coalitions between political parties (up until 2002 this being essentially a two-party political system), Arias has indicated he will build ad hoc coalitions around particular issues. For example, the PLN, ML, and PUSC could join together in support of CAFTA-DR, and PAC and PUSC could support the PLN's plans to increase education spending. What is clear is that Arias will work harder on his legislative agenda than Pacheco has, and we expect more will be accomplished. LANGDALE