AN UNDECIDED JMP KEEPS ON POSTURING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SANAA 000649

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM KMCA KMPI YM
SUBJECT: AN UNDECIDED JMP KEEPS ON POSTURING

REF: SANAA 1820

Classified By: Ambassador Thomas C. Krajeski for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).


1. (C) Summary. After a four-month dispute with the Supreme
Council for Elections and Referendum (SCER),the Joint
Meeting Parties (JMP) opposition party coalition continues to
demand that the SCER balance thousands of its GPC-affiliated
employees with JMP loyalists. The JMP claims that this will
insure that the commission will be a neutral arbiter during
the August local council and presidential elections. The
JMP refuses to show any willingness to compromise, however,
considering their demands come late in the current election
cycle. End Summary.

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So What Do They Want Exactly?
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2. (U) In a March 7 press conference, the JMP, announced that
it was prepared to take "necessary measures" and "mobilize
the street" if the SCER did not "reform itself" before the
upcoming elections (ref. A). The statement follows a
four-month unresolved dispute between the SCER and JMP over a
litany of issues surrounding the political affiliations of
SCER employees, as well as committee and commission members.
During the conference, the coalition also declared that the
SCER and ruling General People's Congress (GPC) party had the
responsibility to ensure "free, impartial and fair
elections," and demanded necessary political guarantees of an
"appropriate climate" for elections. It did not, however,
declare what it would do if its demands were not met.

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Four Months and Counting
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3. (U) The dispute began in November, 2005 when the SCER
announced that financial and logistical constraints would
limit the deployment of election and registration monitoring
committees during the 2006 elections. The JMP, headed by
Islah, reacted by alleging foul play and threatened to
boycott the elections. Headed by the National Democratic
Institute (NDI),international donors mediated substantial
SCER concessions, including a revocation of the November
pronouncement and a guaranteed 33% JMP representation on key
commissions and committees that would oversee election
complaints and voter registration.


4. (C) Despite these victories, in the eleventh hour the
coalition unexpectedly placed a new demand on the SCER by
insisting that its entire staff of 33,000 also be changed to
reflect equal party representation before the elections.
International observers view this as impossible so close to
Election Day. Caught in a deadlock and without international
support, the parties within the JMP are split on what
countermeasures they should take. Reports indicate that
Islah will still participate in the elections, but not in the
electoral administrative process. Serious infighting within
the Yemen Socialist Party has prevented it from issuing any
official response. Reports on what reactions the other
coalition parties will take change daily.

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Ambassador Meeting: No Clear Answers
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5. (C) In a meeting with Ambassador on March 4, the Islahi
leadership could not clarify the matter. When urged by
Ambassador to fully participate in the upcoming elections by
"fighting for every seat and having people in the room to at
least document violations," the leadership broke out in
rancor citing past SCER violations. "Enough with
compromising," yelled SYG Mohammed Yadoumi, "we want to
participate but the government doesn't want to change
anything."


6. (C) Assistant SYG, Abd al-Wahab al-Anisi asked how anyone
expected the JMP to provide the SCER with sufficient
committee participants for a sham election. Anisi continued,
"We can only participate if the SCER is a neutral referee."
Countering Ambassador's remark that it was too late to press
for such a sweeping reform, Islahi Political Director
Mohammed Qahtan said that the JMP has in fact been trying to
negotiate this change for two years. Murad Zafir, an NDI
program officer involved with the mediation, confirmed this
but characterized the efforts as "sporadic discussions."
Ambassador assured the leadership that the international
community would play its role by neutrally monitoring the
election. "I am just not sure if we can take another seven
years of this injustice," replied Yadoumi.


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7. (C) Comment: The JMP's unexpected eleventh hour demand has
put it in a difficult situation. It could back off from its
final demand and look weak or stay in what is, at this point
in the election cycle, a losing battle. The JMP's apparent
indecisiveness and needless posturing is due to its failure
to find a strong presidential candidate and to fractiousness
among its member parties. Rather than secure its victories
and come up with a slate of strong candidates, it is
disappointingly apparent that the coalition is finding
comfort in wasting its time and resources on doing what it
does best: arguing with the SCER and GPC. End Comment.
Krajeski