YEMENIS DISCUSS AL QAEDA ESCAPEES: GOVERNMENT SOAP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SANAA 000296

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/07/2016
TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV YM COUNTER TERRORISM DOMESTIC POLITICS
SUBJECT: YEMENIS DISCUSS AL QAEDA ESCAPEES: GOVERNMENT SOAP
OPERA OR NATIONAL EMERGENCY?

Classified By: DCM NABEEL KHOURY, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Post contacts, media outlets and websites
are thus far treating the February 3 Al-Qaeda jailbreak as
less of a national emergency and more as another peculiar
power struggle within the ROYG. Contacts universally dismiss
the ROYG's claim that the prisoners dug a tunnel and escaped
through a mosque, contending instead that an unknown official
with enough clout simply let them go free. Several
individuals speculate that elements within the ROYG
liberated the prisoners to engage them in covert security
operations, as was done during the civil war with the south.
The absence of any visibly stepped-up security measures in
Sanaa or other major towns and the official media's overall
avoidance of the issue (after having announced it in the
first place) are lending some credibility in the eyes of some
to contacts' views that the Government itself is somehow
implicated in the affair. END SUMMARY


2. (C) During the course of February 5 and 6, poloff spoke
with a range of contacts to obtain their views on the recent
escape of 23 Al-Qaeda supporters, including men implicated in
the bombings of the USS Cole and the M/V Limberg. All
dismissed the claim published on February 3 in the news
website of the military weekly "26 September" that the
prisoners had dug a tunnel and had emerged in a women's
bathroom at a nearby mosque. (NOTE: Media outlets quoted
various unnamed officials stating that the alleged tunnel was
anywhere from three to 70 meters in length.) Asked how the
prisoners would have escaped if the tunnel story was untrue,
contacts opined that a Yemeni security official "with enough
clout" must have let them out. One individual speculated
that Ali al-Mohsen, the northern area military commander who
is related to the President and is from the same Hashid
tribe, may have facilitated the jailbreak.


3. (C) All contacts that poloff surveyed said the "fact"
that someone freed the prisoners and that they did not escape
on their own was evidence of internal developments within the
ROYG that are not entirely clear. Poloff observed to Yemeni
Socialist Party Secretary General Yassin Saeed Noman that the
local press did not seem "overly concerned" by the escape, to
which Noman responded that, "Al-Qaeda in Yemen is a creation
of the government. It is not like Al-Qaeda elsewhere." He
continued that "80 percent" of the prisoners who escaped on
February 3 were not associated with terrorism, but had been
used by the Government to conduct operations against southern
politicians during the 1994 civil war and even later. He
speculated that certain ROYG officials may have let them out
of prison in order to "use them again," although he did not
know for what purpose. Separately, one Aden-based contact
claimed that the Government is planning to employ the former
detainees in assassinating southern politicians in the run-up
to elections in September.


4. (C) Asked why the news of the prison break appeared first
in "26 September," despite the Government's reputation for
dragging its feet in reporting on potentially embarrassing
developments, several ruling party members said the ROYG had
learned from past mistakes and wanted to be "transparent,"
given the importance of the incident. Opposition members
opined, however, that the ROYG wanted the first story
published on the jailbreak to be its own, in order to tamp
down inevitable rumors and speculation among the public and
independent press. One former Member of Parliament pointed
out that "there have been no pictures of this supposed tunnel
and no visits to the prison site by the independent press."
He added, "Look around town -- there has been no increase in
the number of soldiers or police on the streets, no
statements from high officials, and no mobilization like we
saw for the recent kidnappings. It is business as usual."
The Government is not overly concerned about the incident, he
concluded, because "some powerful official is involved in
this."


5. (C) Media outlets have primarily reprinted the "26
September" story, with comments from unnamed government
officials relaying some of the escapees' names, and claiming
that their photographs and other information have been passed
to security offices throughout the country. Two independent
publications on February 7 printed comments by the Saudi
Ambassador to the United States made on CNN that he was
confident that Yemen's security forces would round up the
men. The only local commentary on the incident thus far
appeared on February 7 on a website affiliated with the
Nasserite Unionist Party. The article cites the concerns of
a human rights activist and others that the incident may have
been orchestrated by the ROYG in order to secretly hand over
the prisoners to the United States.


6. (C) COMMENT: Healthy skepticism of the Government is
nothing new to Yemen, so it was to be expected that the
public would have trouble believing the official version of
Yemen's "great escape." Our contacts' firmly-held belief
that the incident involved a high-level security official
does have a ring of truth to it. The humiliation of the
Political Security Organization may well have sealed the
victory of the upstart National Security Bureau in its
rivalry with its older and hitherto more firmly rooted sister
organization. Our contacts' speculation that the Government
plans to use these men for covert purposes or to hand them
over to the USG, however, seems rather far-fetched. These
terrorists are responsible for the worst terrorist attacks
Yemen has ever faced -- attacks that devestated the Yemeni
economy and caused worldwide embarrassment for President
Saleh. The truth may take a while to unfold. One thing is
certain in the meantime: PSO insiders must have been
involved at least as facilitators of the escape. Whether
this was motivated by corruption, rivalry or ideology remains
to be seen. END COMMENT.
Krajeski